干旱综合防御技术对小麦生长和产量的影响

1998年10月至2000年6月进行的冬小麦大干旱综合防御技术集成试验表明，充足的底墒水、深耕、秸杆翻压还田、秸杆覆盖、喷施防旱剂和有限灌溉等是防御冬小麦干旱、减少土壤水分无效消耗的有效措施，对小麦叶面积、干物重和产量形成有明显的影响。综合运用以上措施，可使冬小麦叶面积、干物重和产量形成有明显的影响。综合运用以上措施，可使冬小麦增产10％以上，水分利用效率提高30％以上，每公顷增收节支500－800元。     

核战争的气候效应

本文综述了发生核战争时的气候效应,尤其是全球规模核战争造成的“核冬天”——大幅度降温、大范围干旱和光照不足导至农业、生态的灾难性后果.文中着重论述了数值模拟的结果.此外,对科威特油田大火——“小核冬天”的模拟研究也作了介绍.     

Vegetation responses to climatic variability in the Swiss Southern Alps during the Misox event at the early–mid Holocene transition

Sedimentary pollen, charcoal and plant macrofossil analyses with high resolution and precision suggest a strong shift in vegetation composition during the early to mid‐Holocene transition in the upper mountain belt. At Piano mire (1439 m above sea level (a.s.l.), Ticino, Switzerland) forests were dominated by Abies alba during the early Holocene (prior to ca. 8000 cal. a BP). Abrupt collapses of A. alba at ca. 7800–7400 cal. a BP enabled the expansion of the light‐demanding pioneer Betula. Afterwards A. alba populations regained their previous abundance in the forests. Within the dating uncertainties of our record we assume that a unique combination of wet and cold years between 8400 and 7500 cal. a BP led to repeated lethal disadvantages for Abies. Our record of Abies oscillations is in good biostratigraphic agreement with the record that has been used to define the Misox cold event (Pian di Signano, 1540 m a.s.l.), which has been previously correlated with the 8200 cal. a BP event. Given the age estimates of the Abies collapses in our well‐dated record, our results suggest that additional efforts are needed to understand the linkage between the Misox and the 8200 cal. a BP event. They imply a high sensitivity of mountain vegetation far below the tree line (～800 m) to Holocene climatic changes of about 2°C in annual air temperature. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two modes of climatic control in the Holocene stalagmite record from the Japan Sea side of the Japanese islands

The Holocene stalagmite FG01 collected at the Fukugaguchi Cave in Itoigawa, central Japan provides a unique high‐resolution record of the East Asian winter monsoon. Because of the climate conditions on the Japan Sea side of the Japanese islands, the volume of precipitation during the winter is strongly reflected in the stalagmite δ¹⁸O signal. Examination of the carbon isotopes and the Mg/Ca ratio of FG01 provided additional information on the Holocene climate in Itoigawa, which is characterized by two different modes separated at 6.4 ka. Dripwater composition and the correlation between the δ¹³C and Mg/Ca data of FG01 indicate the importance of prior calcite precipitation (PCP), a process that selectively eliminated ¹²C and calcium ions from infiltrating water from CO₂ degassing and calcite precipitation. In an earlier period (10.0–6.4 ka), an increase in soil pCO₂ associated with warming and wetting climate trends was a critical factor that enhanced PCP, and resulted in an increasing trend in the Mg/Ca and δ¹³C data and a negative correlation between the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O profiles. A distinct peak in the δ¹³C age profile at 6.8 ka could be a response to an increase of approximately 10% in C4 plants in the recharge area. At 6.4 ka, the climate mode changed to another, and correlation between δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C became positive. In addition, a millennial‐scale variation in δ¹⁸O and pulsed changes in δ¹³C and Mg/Ca became distinct. Assuming that δ¹⁸O and PCP were controlled by moisture in the later period, the volume of precipitation was high during 6.0–5.2, 4.4–4.0, and 3.0–2.0 ka. In contrast, the driest interval in Itoigawa was during 0.2–0.4 ka, and broadly corresponds to the Little Ice Age.     

Mechanism and effects of the increase in winter temperatures in the Arctic region on cold winters in Heilongjiang Province,Northeast China for the period 1961–2018

With the advent of climate change,winter temperatures have been steadily in-creasing in the middle-to-high latitudes of the world.However,we have not found a corre-sponding decrease in the number of extremely cold winters.This paper,based on Climatic Research Unit (CRU) re-analysis data,and methods of trend analysis,mutation analysis,correlation analysis,reports on the effects of Arctic warming on winter temperatures in Hei-longjiang Province,Northeast China.The results show that:(1) during the period 1961-2018,winter temperatures in the Arctic increased considerably,that is,3.5 times those of the Equator,which has led to an increasing temperature gradient between the Arctic and the Equator.An abrupt change in winter temperatures in the Arctic was observed in 2000.(2) Due to the global warming,an extremely significant warming occurred in Heilongjiang in winter,in particular,after the Arctic mutation in 2000,although there were two warm winters,more cold winters were observed and the interannual variability of winter temperature also increased.(3)Affected by the warming trend in the Arctic,the Siberian High has intensified,and both the Arctic Vortex and the Eurasian Zonal Circulation Index has weakened.This explains the de-crease in winter temperatures in Heilongjiang,and why cold winters still dominate.Moreover,the increase in temperature difference between the Arctic and the Equator is another reason for the decrease in winter temperatures in Heilongjiang.     

多模式气候预估对华北冬小麦产量模拟的不确定性分析

基于CMIP5的多模式气候预估资料,应用集合方法,评估了未来中国华北地区冬小麦产量受气候变化影响的不确定性,并给出未来中国华北冬小麦增产或减产可能的概率。利用CMIP5的15个全球气候模式2006-2030年4种排放情景的54组逐日气候预估结果,运用CERES-Wheat模型模拟了未来华北地区冬小麦的产量。结果表明,气温的预估结果较好,降水量和太阳辐射的气候预估值的不确定性较大。河北、山东和河南的3个代表点小麦产量的模拟集合表明,未来冬小麦产量年际波动较大,以弱增产的概率为主,但是随气候变化的冬小麦产量的低产概率明显上升。最后本文还给出了2011-2030年间华北地区冬小麦产量不同等级的概率分布。     

钠盐对冬小麦抗旱性增效作用调控机理的生理生态学分析

以冬小麦（烟台-2070）为实验材料,苗期对冬小麦进行不同浓度钠盐(NaCl、Na2CO3、Na2SO4)处理,在随后进行的干旱胁迫和复水过程中进行叶片抗逆生理指标变化对比分析,以期探究盐处理在提高小麦抗旱性中的作用和生理调节机理,为未来干旱区农业实施盐水灌溉提供理论依据。实验采用盆栽法,将冬小麦种子盆栽,待长到第7天进行不同浓度钠盐(70 mM, 135 mM, 200 mM, 270 mM)预处理8 d, 然后进行干旱胁迫12 d和复水5 d。分别在盐处理的第4天,第8天,干旱胁迫的第4天,第8天,第12天,以及复水第5天,从不同盐处理中采集冬小麦叶片,分析叶片相对含水量、丙二醛（MDA）、脯氨酸含量及抗氧化酶活力[超氧化物岐化酶（SOD）、过氧化氢（CAT）、过氧化物酶(POD)]的动态变化,同时测定土壤含水量。结果表明,在干旱胁迫过程中,未经盐处理的对照组和低浓度(70 mM)NaCl、Na2CO3、Na2SO4溶液处理的土壤,土壤含水量急剧下降,同时冬小麦叶片相对含水量也相应的急剧下降;而用较高盐浓度处理的土壤和冬小麦叶片含水量降低较慢。在干旱胁迫过程中,对照组冬小麦在短时间（6 d）内干旱叶片便出现萎蔫,并伴随着丙二醛、脯氨酸含量、SOD等抗氧化酶活力急剧增加并一直高于盐处理的冬小麦。相反高浓度盐处理的冬小麦在干旱处理12 d时叶片直立生长良好,叶片MDA、抗氧化酶活力均增加,但增加幅度均低于对照。脯氨酸含量随干旱胁迫增加,但随盐处理浓度增加而上升幅度减小。在复水处理5 d后,叶片含水量均增加,MDA和脯氨酸含量下降,但抗氧化酶活力仍增高。荒漠环境土壤中盐离子一方面可提高土壤和植物的保水率,提高水分利用率,另一方面激活体内的抗氧化酶系统使植物较早获得抗逆能力,这可能是荒漠植物多抗逆性形成的部分生理生化原因。     

北太平洋冬季SST、风场及环流对淡水强迫的响应

通过海气耦合模式CCSM3(The Community Climate System Model version 3),研究在北大西洋高纬度淡水强迫下,北太平洋冬季的海表温度SST、风场及流场的响应及其区域性差异。结果表明:淡水的注入使北太平洋整体变冷,但有部分区域异常增暖;在太平洋东部赤道两侧,SST的变化出现北负南正的偶极子型分布。阿留申低压北移的同时中纬度西风减弱,热带附近东北信风增强。黑潮和南赤道流减弱,北太平洋副热带逆流和北赤道流增强,日本海被南向流控制。风场及流场的改变共同导致了北太平洋SST异常出现复杂的空间差异:北太平洋中高纬度SST的降温主要由大气过程决定,海洋动力过程主要影响黑潮、日本海及副热带逆流区域的SST,太平洋热带地区SST异常由大气与海洋共同主导。     

近50年西藏冷暖冬的气候变化特征

依据中国国家标准《暖冬等级》,参照单站、区域暖冬等级标准,确定了单站和区域冷冬等级。在此基础上,分析了1961-2010 年西藏18 个站冷、暖冬事件的气候变化特征。结果表明:近50 年西藏各地冬季平均气温呈明显的升高趋势,升幅为0.29~1.04 oC/10a,以班戈最大;尤其是近20 年升温更强烈,达0.73~2.36 oC/10a。西藏区域暖冬指数表现为显著的上升趋势,线性趋势为16.0%/10a,明显高于东北、华北、西北等区域。各站暖冬频率为32%~52%,强暖冬事件频率为6%~26%;区域暖冬共出现了21 次(年),其中强暖冬事件10 次(年),主要出现在21 世纪初;2006年和2009 年是50 年中范围最广、强度最大的暖冬。各站冷冬频率为18%~40%,强冷冬事件频率为2%~20%;区域冷冬站数约以每10 年12%的速率减少。区域冷冬共发生了16 次(年),以20 世纪60 年代居多,其中区域强冷冬事件出现了8 次(年),1962 年是近50 年中范围最广、强度最大的冷冬,1968 年和1983 年次之。     

中国冷冬的气候研究

2008年1月中国发生了低温、雨雪、冰冻天气,对南方的交通、通讯和输电等造成了严重的影响,也极大地提高了人们研究冷冬的兴趣。气候资料表明,这个冬季的温度负距平可能接近或小于冷冬的标准（-1.5℃）,远低于寒冬的标准（-2.5℃）。但是,这是1977年以来最冷的冬季。近千年的资料表明,寒冬之后,夏季在中国出现东部多雨或北方多雨的概率会超过气候值。温度分布的EOF分析表明,2008年1月的温度变化可能是年际变化的反映,因此,未来短时间内再次出现这种类型冷冬的可能性不大。