衡阳风变化及风能蕴藏量评估

利用衡阳9站1970—2016年测风数据,通过气候倾向率分析风速年、年代际变化,M-K检验风速突变年份,运用有效风能密度评估各区域风能蕴藏量,其结论如下:衡阳风速总体呈下降趋势,衡山减少最明显,风速减少极显著区域未出现突变;低海拔区风速集中在0～3. 4 m/s(85. 8%),1991—2016年风频两极分化,低速及高速区增多,中间出现断层。南岳山风速范围广,2005—2016年强风频区有缺失,主风频在3～5区间;2010年全面采用高灵敏度自动测风仪,低海拔区静风迅速减少;按照有效风能密度定义,南岳山风能丰富,低海拔区未达到可利用标准。     

遵义市冬末初春两次寒潮降雪天气过程对比分析

利用Micaps常规观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、区域站加密观测资料,对遵义市2016年3月8—9日(过程Ⅰ)和2017年2月21—22日(过程Ⅱ)的两次寒潮降雪天气过程进行对比分析。结果表明:(1)500 h Pa横槽转竖和低槽东移是两次寒潮爆发的重要引导系统,过程Ⅰ属于横槽转竖型寒潮天气过程,过程Ⅱ寒潮属小槽发展型。(2)地面冷高压中心强度(冷源)及南下速度是预报寒潮的关键。(3)700 h Pa切变影响与降雪时段对应较好,在今后降雪预报中应作为重要影响系统加以关注。(4)湿层深厚,整层水汽含量高为降雪的显著特征。(5)有无融化层和融化层厚薄应作为降雪预报温度条件的关注重点。     

Field determination for roughness length above the different non-erodible surfaces

Non-erodible elements, for its disturbance to the near-surface airflow, have been widely used in arid and semi-arid regions to protect the surface from wind erosion. Roughness length was usually used to evaluate the protection effect of non-erodible elements from wind erosion. In this study, the wind profiles above five types of non-erodible surfaces including gravel, wheat straw checkerboard barriers, cotton stem checkerboard barriers, shrubs, and herbs were measured and analyzed. The wind velocities above these surfaces increased with height approximately in logarithmic functions. The roughness length of different non-erodible surfaces was calculated by the functions of wind profiles. The results reveal that:(1) Roughness length increased with wind velocity in given wind velocity ranges. (2) On vegetative surfaces, wind did not effectively bend the stems. The threshold wind velocity for bending the stems of Achnatherum splendens was 4 m/s, 10 m/s for Agropyron cristatum, and for Artemisia ordosica, no obvious bending of stems even for wind velocity reaching 12 m/s. (3) Correlation analysis results show that the vegetation''s coverage and frontal area affect the roughness length more significantly than the other parameters. (4) The protective results of these non-erodible elements were evaluated. The checkerboard sand barriers made of cotton stem could provide more effective protection than that made of wheat straw. In the same coverage conditions, vegetation could provide more effective protection from wind erosion than gravel, and the blending of different non-erodible elements especially the combination of blending of vegeation and checkerboard sand barriers could provide more effective protection to the surface.     

A GIS-based fire spread simulator integrating a simplified physical wildland fire model and a wind field model

??This article discusses the integration of two models, namely, the Physical Forest Fire Spread (PhFFS) and the High Definition Wind Model (HDWM), into a Geographical Information System-based interface. The resulting tool automates data acquisition, preprocesses spatial data, launches the aforementioned models and displays the corresponding results in a unique environment. Our implementation uses the Python language and Esri’s ArcPy library to extend the functionality of ArcMap 10.4. The PhFFS is a simplified 2D physical wildland fire spread model based on conservation equations, with convection and radiation as heat transfer mechanisms. It also includes some 3D effects. The HDWM arises from an asymptotic approximation of the Navier–Stokes equations, and provides a 3D wind velocity field in an air layer above the terrain surface. Both models can be run in standalone or coupled mode. Finally, the simulation of a real fire in Galicia (Spain) confirms that the tool developed is efficient and fully operational.     

Factors controlling the seasonality of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

By analyzing observational data, previous studies have indicated that the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is active during the boreal winter but relatively weak during the boreal summer. However, the factors that control seasonal MJO variation are not clear. To quantitatively understand the relative contributions of the occurrence frequency of enhanced MJO events and their averaged strength and lifespan to seasonal MJO amplitude, we defined the MJO events of 1979–2014 and analyzed their features in different seasons by using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and the newly proposed RMM-r index. The results indicate that the MJO events show a higher frequency of occurrence, a stronger intensity and a longer duration during the boreal winter (Dec.–Feb.) and spring (Mar.–May). However, the frequency, strength and lifespan of MJO events are all reduced during the boreal summer (Jun.–Aug.) and autumn (Sep.–Nov.). The enhanced MJO events in winter–spring also show a large ratio of variance for eastward to westward components. To elucidate how large-scale background fields affect seasonal MJO variation, a series of sensitivity experiments was conducted by using a 2.5-layer model that can simulate MJO-like features. It is found that the variation in low-level moisture (vertical wind shear) is the key large-scale factor affecting the seasonal variation in MJO strength (in propagation). In comparison with the summer–autumn seasons when the MJO is relatively weakened, the relatively abundant low-level moisture near the equator during boreal winter–spring may strengthen the development of MJO convection and circulation, whereas the relatively weak easterly shear (or the westerly shear anomaly) is conducive to the enhancement of an eastward-propagating MJO component.     

不同天气条件下脉冲激光风廓线仪测风性能

将2012年5月21日-8月16日广东省湛江市东海岛气象观测站内脉冲激光风廓线仪WINDCUBE V2与气象站内的100 m测风塔进行同步观测试验,在经过观测数据同步性调整、有效性检验和代表性样本筛选基础上,分大小风和有无降雨天气过程,对杯式测风仪、超声风速仪与激光风廓线仪的同步测风数据进行比较,结果显示:脉冲激光风廓线仪与杯式测风仪测量水平风参数的相关性较好,10 min平均风速、风向的线性拟合度均大于0.99,3 s阵风风速的拟合度大于0.96,湍流强度的拟合度大于0.67,风速标准差的拟合度大于0.79;大风情况下,激光风廓线仪对风参数的测量效果更佳。无降雨情况下,激光风廓线仪的测量效果较降雨时略好,10 min降水量小于15 mm的降雨对这款激光风廓线仪的风速、风向、湍流强度、3 s阵风风速的测量没有显著影响,对风速标准差有一定影响。当水平风速增大和有降雨时,激光风廓线仪对垂直速度的测量效果欠佳。该对比分析可为激光风廓线仪观测数据的可靠性提供参考。     

阿克苏初秋一次暴雨过程诊断分析

本文利用常规地面与高空观测资料、自动站逐时资料、NECP1°×1°再分析资料,对阿克苏地区2015年9月7日局地暴雨进行分析。结果表明,造成此次暴雨的主要原因有(1)中尺度分析暴雨发生前阿克苏处于高能高湿不稳定区域;(2)08时至20时探空图中湿层、风向以及不稳定能量的突变预示了强对流天气的发生;(3)暴雨过程的大部分水汽是通过低层偏东气流输送,水汽的来源主要为孟加拉湾,其次北疆短波槽及蒙古槽也提供了少量水汽(4)锋区加强、垂直风切变增大、水平风速辐合提供了热力及动力条件,垂直速度伸展高度影响了对流云厚度及高度。(5)地面风速辐合触发对流,加之较好的地面热力条件以及一定的地形增益暴雨强度。(6)地面辐合线及偏东风输送位置影响暴雨落区。     

巴音布鲁克高寒区气象观测分析

本文通过2011-2013年中天山高寒无人区自建的自动气象站获取的稀缺气象资料,客观地揭示了观测区域的气象条件,给出部分气象特征参数变化特征,为中天山高山达坂区气象观测研究工作奠定一定基础,并得出如下结果：（1）迎风坡盛行风向SE、N,SE占35%,N占25%,N向风力集中4级以下,SE明显偏大,3级风比重15%,4级风比重7%,5级风比重4%;6级风比重1%,6级以上的风力几乎为零。背风坡主导风向角度范围在247.5°-337.5°,风力基本在6级以下,6级及以上风力出现概率不足1%。3-5级风占的比重较大。（2）日平均气温≤-10℃日数所占观测总日数的百分比,其值分别为：0.0%（恰西）、44.5%（江不肯达坂）、9.8%（江巴口子）、15.1%（铁力买提达坂）。恰西、江不肯达坂、江巴口子、铁力买提达坂4站日平均相对湿度≥80%的频率分别为5.9%、18.4%、16.1%和22.6%。（3）换算得出恰西、江不肯达坂、江巴口子、铁力买提达坂观测期间10m高度最大瞬时风速与小时平均风速分别为33.8/27.9m/s、41.0/27.3 m/s、25.7/17.7m/s、34.0/17.2 m/s。     

策勒沙漠-绿洲输沙及动力环境特征

利用2012年4月9日—5月9日策勒沙漠和绿洲内部测点的输沙及气象资料,分析了沙漠与绿洲内部沙尘传输的差异性,并从风动力环境上揭示了成因。结果表明:(1)观测期间,通过沙漠测点100 cm(宽)×200 cm(高)断面的沙尘总量为117.5 kg,通过绿洲内部棉田相同断面的沙尘总量为15.1 kg,比沙漠测点减少了87.1%;(2)过渡带和防护林带对风速的消减作用明显,观测期间,沙漠测点起沙风的持续时间为97.4 h,棉田测点仅为18.9 h;(3)观测期间,沙漠测点的总输沙势为114.2 VU,合成输沙势为72.8 VU,合成输沙方向为65.5°;棉田测点的总输沙势为16.1 VU,合成输沙势为15.1 VU,合成输沙方向为104.5°。荒漠过渡带和绿洲防护林通过降低绿洲内部的风速,改变动力环境,削弱沙尘在绿洲区的传输。     

乌鲁木齐市边界层日变化特征

利用乌鲁木齐市晴天CFL-03型风廓线雷达观测资料,分析了边界层日变化特征。得出结论如下:边界层结构季节变化明显。冬、春季300~600m以下风速较小,小于3m/s,且愈近地面风速愈小;以上风速大、风向恒定,基本为东南大风。夏季和秋季风速比冬季和春季小,流场特征较复杂,水平风速和风向变化较活跃,存在明显的风切变。折射率结构常数春、秋和冬季比夏季分别小1个、3个和1~3个量级;夏季最大,集中在10~(-16)~10~(-13) m~(-2/3)之间。春、夏和秋季晴天湍流动能耗散率量级分别在10~(-6)~10~(-2) m~2·s~(-3)、10~(-4)~10~(-3) m~2·s~(-3)、10~(-6)~10~(-3) m~2·s~(-3)之间;白天比夜间约大1个量级。晴天折射率结构常数和湍流动能耗散率日变化特征与风场日变化特征有较好地对应关系,即湍流发展旺盛的区域与风速较大的区域相一致。风廓线雷达资料反演的湍流动能耗散率对春季和夏季边界层结构日变化演变特征的监测较好。夏季夜间稳定边界层约400~500m,残余层可达到约1800m,对流边界层可发展到约2500m,混合层约2200m,夹卷层约300~400m。