基于中尺度模式与神经网络的风电功率预测

将中尺度数值天气预报模式与BP神经网络模型相结合用于风电功率预测,以WRF模式回算了2008年6月至2009年6月试验风电场的气象要素,精度检验结果显示风速预报值与对应实测值之间的相关系数达到0.72,风向、气温、湿度、气压的预报也比较准确,满足建立BP神经网络预报模型的需要.逐一建立试验风电场40台风电机组输出功率的BP神经网络预报模型,分析了数据标准化方法、隐含层神经元数对预报精度的影响.进行了26天实效为24 h的逐10 min预报试验,并以独立样本进行预报精度检验,结果显示单台风电机组输出功率相对均方根误差在24.8％～32.6％之间,预报值与实测值之间的相关系数现在0.45～0.68之间;风电场整体相对均方根误差为19.5％,预报值与实测值之间的相关系数为0.74.研究结果表明该方法可以用于实际的风电功率预测.     

Magnetosonic waveguide model of solar wind flow tubes

We consider solar wind flow tubes as a magnetosonic wave-guide. Assuming a symmetric expansion in edges of slab-modelled wave-guide, we study the propagation characteristics of magnetosonic wave in the solar wind flow tubes. We present the preliminary results and discuss their implications.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY OF SURFACE WIND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC

A global atmospheric general circulation model (L9R15 AGCMs) forced by COADS SST was integrated from 1945 to 1993. Interannual and interdecadal variability of the simulated surface wind over the tropical Pacific was analyzed and shown to agree vey well with observation. Simulation of surface wind over the central-western equatorial Pacific was more successful than that over the eastern Pacific. Zonal propagating feature of interannual variability of the tropical Pacific wind anomalies and its decadal difference were also simulated successfully. The close agreement between simulation and observation on the existence of obvious interdecadal variability of tropical Pacific surface wind attested to the high simulation capability of AGCM.     

Solar wind-magnetosphere interaction as simulated by a 3-D em particle code

We have studied the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction using a 3-D electromagnetic particle code. The results for an unmagnetized solar wind plasma streaming past a dipole magnetic field show the formation of a magnetopause and a magnetotail, the penetration of energetic particles into cusps and radiation belt and dawn-dusk asymmetries. The effects of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) have been investigated in a similar way as done by MHD simulations. The simulation results with a southward IMF show the shrunk magnetosphere with great particle entry into the cusps and nightside magnetosphere. This is a signature of a magnetic reconnection at the dayside magnetopause. After a quasi-stable state is established with an unmagnetized solar wind we switched on a solar wind with an northward IMF. In this case the significant changes take place in the magnetotail. The waving motion was seen in the magnetotail and its length was shortened. This phenomena are consistent with the reconnections which occur at the high latitude magnetopause. In our simulations kinetic effects will determine the self-consistent anomalous resistivity in the magnetopause that causes reconnections.Deceased January 24, 1993; R. Bunemanet al. 1993.     

Spatial closeness of the white hypergiants HD 168607 and HD 168625

Our spectroscopic monitoring of the hypergiants HD 168607 (B9.5 Ia-0) and HD 168625 (B5.5 Ia-0) with resolutions from 15000 to 70000 confirms that both stars belong to the Ser OB1 association, proves their spatial closeness, and increases the probability that they constitute a physical pair.     

中尺度磁绳结构的行星际观测

由磁绳结构主导、平均尺度约二、三十个小时的行星际磁云是日冕物质抛射在行星际膨胀、传播的体现。最近，Moldwin等人报道在太阳风中还观测到一些尺度在几十分钟的小尺度磁绳结构，并认为太阳风中的磁绳结构在尺度分布上可能具有双峰特征，在全面检视了WIND卫星(1995年-2000年)和ACE卫星(1998年-2000年)的观测资料后，发现了在行星际太阳风中一些尺度为几个小时的中尺度磁绳结构，利用初步整理的其中28个中尺度磁绳结构事件，认为太阳风中的磁绳结构在尺度分布上可能是连续的，这对行星际太阳风中磁绳结构物理起源的研究可能提出重要的物理限制。     

Ekman层风速随高度分布方程的数值解试验

根据大气水平运动方程推导出Ekman层风速随高度分布方程,该分布可用二阶线性微分方程表示,用有限差分法求解该二阶线性微分方程的边值问题的数值解,并给出计算程序,输出结果。将结果与经典解析解比较,讨论了经典解的正确性和适用范围。     

Solar wind interactions with Comet 19P/Borrelly

The Plasma Experiment for Planetary Exploration (PEPE) made detailed observations of the plasma environment of Comet 19P/Borrelly during the Deep Space 1 (DS1) flyby on September 22, 2001. Several distinct regions and boundaries have been identified on both inbound and outbound trajectories, including an upstream region of decelerated solar wind plasma and cometary ion pickup, the cometary bow shock, a sheath of heated and mixed solar wind and cometary ions, and a collisional inner coma dominated by cometary ions. All of these features were significantly offset to the north of the nucleus-Sun line, suggesting that the coma itself produces this offset, possibly because of well-collimated large dayside jets directed 8°-10° northward from the nucleus as observed by the DS1 MICAS camera. The maximum observed ion density was 1640 ion/cm³ at a distance of 2650 km from the nucleus while the flow speed dropped from 360 km/s in the solar wind to 8 km/s at closest approach. Preliminary analysis of PEPE mass spectra suggest that the ratio of CO⁺/H₂O⁺ is lower than that observed with Giotto at 1P/Halley.     

Low-frequency solar radiophysics with LOFAR and FASR

Low-frequency radio observations offer unique diagnostics of the solar corona and solar wind. After a prolongued hiatus, there is renewed interest in this important frequency regime. Two new ground-based instruments will provide critical new low-frequency observations: the low-frequency array (LOFAR) and the frequency agile solar radiotelescope (FASR). This brief topical review summarizes low-frequency radio phenomena that will be accessible to detailed study by LOFAR and FASR in the coming decade. Energy release, drivers of space weather, and studies of the solar wind are emphasized. Both instruments are expected to play important roles in both basic research problems and national and international space weather capabilities. While FASR is a solar-dedicated instrument, LOFAR is not. Solar observing requirements for LOFAR are briefly discussed.     

冕洞观测研究的近期进展

简要介绍了在１９８８－１９９５年期间冕洞观测研究的主要进展。文中共分五个方面：１．冕洞磁场观测研究的新进展；２．冕洞在太阳活动周不同位相时的规律性；３．冕洞区高速太阳风观测的新结果；４．冕洞加热问题；５．存在问题。