西风爆发时赤道西太平洋的热量平衡：个例分析

The responses of sea surface temperature (SST) in the western equatorial Pacific warm pool to the west erly wind bursts (WWBs) play an important role in the relationship between WWB and ENSO. By using da ta collected from eight buoys of TOGA (Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere)-COARE (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment), the heat balances of the upper ocean in the western equatorial Pacific around 0°. 156°E during two WWB events were calculated according to Stevenson and Niiler＇s (1983) method. In both events, SST increased before and after the WWBs, while decreased within the WWBs. The SST amplitudes approximated to l℃. Although sometimes the horizontal heat advections may become the biggest term in the heat balance, the variation of SST was dominated by the surface heat flux. On the other aspect, some different features of the two events are also revealed. The two cases have different variation of mixed layer depth. The depth of mixed layer is almost double in the first case (35 m to 70 m), which is caused by Ekman convergence, while only 10m increments due to entrainment in the second one. There are also differences in the currents structure. The different variations of thermal and currents struc ture in the mixing layers accounted for the different variation of the heat balance during the two events, es pecially the advection and residue terms. The seasonal variation of SST in this area is also investigated sim ply. The first WWB event happened just during the seasonal transition. So we considered that it is a normal season transition rather than a so-called anomaly. That also suggested that the seasonal distinction of the WWB is worthy of more attention in the researches of its relationship to ENSO.     

近50年我国风向变化特征

利用我国基本和基准气象台站1956—2005年的一日4次风向和风速资料, 对近50年我国风向变化做了尝试性分析。分析发现:我国大部分地区年最大风向频率呈减小趋势, 其中西北、华南和西南地区最大风向频率减小趋势最为显著, 只有西部个别地区略有增加; 全国大部分地区年最大风向频率对应的风速均呈明显的减小趋势。同时, 年最大风向频率对应的风速减小趋势比年平均风速的减小趋势更为显著, 最大风向频率对应的风速减小是平均风速减小的主导因素; 我国冬季主要盛行的偏北风和夏季主要盛行的偏南风都呈明显的减小趋势。偏北风（冬季）和偏南风（夏季）的减小主要是亚洲冬季风和夏季风减弱造成的。     

An overview of dry-wet climate variability among monsoon-westerly regions and the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone in China

Climate in mainland China can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the last 4--5 centuries in several areas over the non-monsoon region. Some questions, such as the impact of global warming on dry-wet regime changes in China, complex interactions between the monsoon and westerly flows in Northeast China, and the integrated multi-proxy analysis throughout all of China, are proposed.     

多普勒激光雷达风场反演方法研究

采用三维变分同化反演(3DVAR)、 四维变分同化反演(4DVAR) 对多普勒激光雷达资料反演风场的方法进行了研究, 利用车载多普勒激光雷达在2008年残奥会测试赛期间外场试验取得的数据, 反演了海面10 m高度处的风场, 并将风场反演结果与浮标资料进行了对比分析, 结果表明: 3DVAR、4DVAR风场反演方法均能实现近海面风的精细化风场反演, 并能反映出风向的变化, 反演风场与浮标数据基本一致, 在风速较大的天气情况, 3DVAR与4DVAR反演风场的一致性要好于风速较小的天气情况; 4DVAR反演方法中以浮标资料作为背景场, 使得其与浮标的符合程度要好于3DVAR方法反演风场; 反演风场的风向与浮标风向具有很好的相关关系, 反演风场的风速与浮标风速具有一定的相关关系, 反演风场的风向、风速与浮标的风向、风速之间平均均方根误差和平均绝对误差表明, 这两序列之间具有一定差别, 在风速较小的天气情况下使用时需要注意。     

一种适于较强台风的切向风廓线方案及其对异常台风路径的数值模拟研究

针对现今台风数值预报中强热带气旋切向风廓线设计上的困难，提出了一种利用台风报告中7级风和10级风的半径来确定台风切向风廓线的方法。它既可反映真实台风外围结构又避免了强风速切变问题。该方案有可能改进台风尤其是异常路径台风的预报效果，具有广阔的业务应用前景。     

ENSO发生前与发展初期赤道西太平洋西风异常的爆发问题

利用 NCEP/NCAR再分析资料 ,通过对 El Nino与 La Nina发生前与发展初期低层风场的合成分析 ,发现在赤道中东太平洋增暖当年的春季与夏季 ,赤道西太平洋存在两次显著的西风局地 ( 1 40°E～ 1 80 )增强过程。其原因并不仅仅在于印度洋的西风异常东移 ,更在于南北半球的经向风在该地区强烈辐合 ,造成局地气压梯度增强 ,促进西风加强并向东爆发 ;同时由于地球自转效应的作用 ,来自北半球的东北风到达赤道附近后转西北风 ,南半球的东南风转西南风 ,直接加强了西风的强度。对比分析南北半球经向风的作用表明 ,南半球东南风的强度与位置更稳定 ,对赤道西风两次增幅过程的贡献更大。这支南半球的经向气流来自高纬极区 ,与中高纬度气压场异常有直接的关系。     

卫星导风资料所揭示的对流层上部环流形势与我国夏季主要雨带之间的关系

综合运用1998—2002年的降水资料和卫星导风资料, 统计分析了对流层上部的流场特征, 证实我国夏季出现重要降水过程时, 对流层上部存在3种特定的环流形势:我国南方雨带上空, 在对流层上部常伴有一个反气旋脊, 是中心位于青藏高原上空的反气旋向东的延伸, 强降水区位于该反气旋脊线和副热带西风急流之间的气流辐散区或脊线南侧热带东风的速度辐散区里, 以6—7月在我国长江流域和华南地区较为多见; 强降水区位于我国东部沿海对流层上部不对称反气旋外流区的西侧、高空变形场东侧, 常见于7—9月下旬; 强降水区位于高空槽前的西南气流里, 这种流型以7—8月时在我国30°N以北地区居多。     

西风角动量输送的气候特征及其与急流关系研究

利用1958～1997年NCEP/NCAR一日四次的风场再分析资料,系统地分析了季节平均西风角动量（即u角动量）经向、垂直输送通量及其三个分量（平均经圈环流、定常波、瞬变涡输送通量）的气候特征,特别是讨论了12～2月、6～8月它们与东、西风带、副热带西风急流、极夜急流之间的联系。结果表明:（1）包含纬度因子的角动量通量与动量通量在高纬地区存在显著差别,高纬对流层上部的强动量输送中心在角动量通量中不明显。而u角动量强经向输送主要在中低纬对流层顶附近和冬半球高纬平流层顶附近,副热带西风急流和极夜西风急流均位于u角动量强向极输送中心及其高纬一侧的辐合区中。（2）发现三个输送分量对急流维持的作用随纬度、季节不同。北半球冬季（夏季）的副热带西风急流主要由平均经圈环流（强度相当的定常波和瞬变涡）强经向输送及辐合维持;南半球西风急流全年均由平均经圈环流和瞬变涡旋输送及辐合维持;冬半球中平流层极夜急流主要由定常波、瞬变涡旋输送及其辐合共同维持。（3）热带东风区是牵连角动量（即Ω角动量）的高值区,它主要由平均经圈环流向对流层上部输送;冬半球副热带及中纬西风区存在u角动量垂直输送的切变区,它主要由平均经圈环流和瞬变涡旋完成;热带对流层顶附近有u角动量的定常波弱向下输送。     

区域台风-海洋耦合模式的构建及应用研究

由于海洋业务化预报模式对中尺度涡等海洋中、小尺度物理过程的准确预报仍然具有较大困难,因此,区域台风-海洋耦合模式初始化采用稳定基态的海洋数据是当前的有效手段。本文通过对两组台风个例的模拟,检验了基于稳定基态海洋数据的区域台风-海洋耦合模式的模拟效果,并通过6组敏感性试验,研究了初始台风最大风速半径（Radius of maximum wind speed,RMWS）对耦合模式模拟结果的影响。结果表明:初始台风RMWS的影响贯穿整个模拟阶段,RMWS越大,下垫面热通量输送量级越大,台风强度越强。在台风强烈的风场作用下,海温反馈也越显著,从而引起热通量降低幅度增大。RMWS作为与台风结构密切相关的物理量在度量台风强度中起到了重要作用。     

梅雨锋对引发暴雨的中尺度对流系统发生发展影响的研究

针对梅雨锋(湿度锋)上或附近偏南暖湿气流一侧中尺度对流系统不断发生发展和长时间维持而引发长江流域暴雨的观测事实,利用中尺度数值预报模式WRF(V3.1.1)设计了一系列三维理想数值试验,研究了梅雨锋两侧自身水汽差异效应,探讨了基本气流和风垂直切变对梅雨锋上中尺度对流系统发生发展的影响,揭示了梅雨锋对中尺度对流系统的组织...