太阳剧烈活动与空间灾害天气

剧烈太阳活动和空间灾害天气的研究 ,是当代空间科学中最前沿、最具挑战性和最能造福人类的课题。这一研究将揭示太阳活动的成因、证认太阳活动和空间灾害天气的因果联系 ,在天文、空间和地球科学交叉领域取得实质性的学科进步 ,为实施我国国家空间天气计划提供坚实的科学基础 ,为发展我国空间科学探测准备新的概念和思路。本文评述了国家基础研究重点规划 (973)项目“剧烈太阳活动与空间灾害天气”的研究进展、科学机遇和进一步努力方向。     

海南岛热带作物多目标规划模型

本文从海南热带作物生物特性、现实生产结构和地区气候条件出发、对热作种植业进行了模湖区域性划分；在计算构成各区产量基本参数的基础上，应用多目标规划方法，建立了热作结构优化的近期分区模型；并通过近期基础模型和对未来参数的预测，建立了远期灰色规划模型。结果表明，近期方案可提高收益5．1－55．7％，远期方案可提高54－90％，远近期方案均取得了明显的经济效果。     

带有周期分量的多层递阶预报模型

本文针对经典多层递阶方法所存在的缺陷,提出了一种改进方案—带有周期分量的多层递阶预报模型,它利用时间序列的显著周期分量取代原模型中的自回归部分,使之既考虑到各种物理因子的主导作用,又较好地反映了气象要素自身的周期性变化规律,因而预报效果较为稳定。     

Neural network time series prediction of environmental variables in a small upland headwater in NE Scotland

Short‐term prediction of environmental variables such as stream flow rate is useful to members of the general public and environmental scientists alike, providing the ability to predict environmental disasters or scientifically interesting events. Here, a neural‐network based method is presented, which is capable of providing advance flood warnings or the prediction of high stream flow events for research purposes in a small upland headwater in NE Scotland. This method relies on training from past time series data acquired in the field, and provides the ability to predict a range of hydrological and meteorological variables up to 24 h ahead using feedback of predicted values at time t as new inputs for the next time step t + 1. The system is rapid and effective, relies on standard neural network training methods, and has the potential to be implemented in a web‐based monitoring and prediction package. The model design could be implemented at any study site where time series data has been gathered, and is sufficiently flexible to accept whatever data is available. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

西畴县灾害性天气预报经验

统计西畴县近30年的大雨、暴雨、冰雹等灾害性天气时空分布情况,查阅历年预报会商分析记录和实况天气回顾,找出了造成这类天气的实际影响系统,归纳出该县的四季天气特点、主要气象灾害和主要影响天气系统,着重讨论形成西畴县冰雹、大雨、暴雨天气的典型环流形势和其它影响因子。对形成西畴县冰雹、大雨、暴雨等灾害性天气预报进行经验总结。     

Oceanic basalt continuous thermal demagnetization curves

The palaeomagnetic standard technique of stepwise thermal demagnetization (STD), long regarded as unreliable for oceanic basalts that have undergone low temperature alteration, has recently been applied in a number of studies to characterize the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) of such rocks. In order to better understand STD data of oceanic basalts, and to possibly identify the magnetominerals that are carrying the NRM, we have carried out a number of continuous and STD experiments on seven oceanic basalt samples. During continuous thermal demagnetization (CTD), a sample is heated to a certain temperature and its NRM is measured during heating and subsequent cooling. Even when CTD reveals only titanomaghemite unblocking at 400°C as the remanence carrier, STD behaviour can be very complex and unblocking is observed at temperatures of up to 500°C and higher. CTD also allowed to identify a partial or full self-reversal of NRM due to interaction between two types of magnetominerals in one sample. The higher degree of maghemitization of smaller titanomaghemite grains with respect to larger ones, which are less efficient in carrying the remanence, was seen for three samples by a shift of 80°C between the strong field thermomagnetic curve and the NRM measured at elevated temperature. In several cases, the identification of the NRM-carrying magnetomineral was not possible from CTD data due to the ambiguity of Curie temperatures in the titanomagnetite/titanomaghemite system.     

An Inconvenient Truth: blurring the lines between science and science fiction

Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth gives a variety of unusually biased interpretations of the state of climate science and global warming theory. These cover a wide range of natural events and processes which could potentially be impacted by global warming, but which the movie misrepresents as clear examples of the human influence on climate. A few examples include the mixing up of cause and effect in his graphical portrayal of temperature and carbon dioxide variations over hundreds of thousands of years; the repeated depiction of ice calving from glaciers as a sign of global warming; the implication that Hurricane Katrina was the fault of humans; and the particularly extreme view that the Greenland ice sheet will melt, flooding coastal cities worldwide. Ultimately, all of these are related to the widespread perception that scientists have uniquely tied global warming to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The real inconvenient truth is that science has no idea how much of recent warming is natural versus the result of human activities.     

南北方人工造雾的气象可行性研究

本文分析了造雾剂的成雾原理和影响成雾效果的温度、相对湿度和风速等环境因素,对典型南方城市(长沙)和北方城市(北京)的相关气象资料进行统计分析表明,南方的气候除14时外非常适合造雾,而北方02时和08时造雾完全可行,20时也存在很大的可能性。外场试验表明,由于开放空间的特点,造雾剂成雾所需的相对湿度降低,同时也由于大面积人造雾的集团效应和外场空间较高的凝水效率,使人工造雾的抗风能力加强,外场人工造雾的可行性很大。     

数值预报产品综合判据在天气预报中的评价作用

为适应预报质量评定办法,改善对预报因子潜在信息的评价和提取,该文尝试了应用多种判据综合评价、提取数值预报产品信息。计算从各方面反映预报信息的五个单一判据的加权平均,作为综合评价和提取预报因子潜在信息的客观量级,该方法克服了通用的单一判据的局限性,可以更加全面、客观地评价预报信息,从而提高预报准确率。