公路交通事故与气象条件关系及其气象预警模型

以西安地区为例, 分析该地区2002年1月—2004年12月连续3年逐日公路交通事故资料1096个样本, 以及该地区、对应的逐日13个气象要素资料, 并将样本数据划分为春夏和秋冬两个半年, 来考虑气象要素在不同时段的不同影响, 建立合理有效的公路气象预警模型。通过2005年3月—2006年4月交通事故发生起数共365个测试样本的检验, 发现这个模型具有较高的预测准确性, 运用该地区气象要素建立公路交通事故的预警模型是可行而有效的。研究表明:西安地区气象要素中包含着影响和可以预测当地公路交通的信息, 按照在logistic方程中的显著性大小和因子负载的大小, 在春夏半年 (4—9月), 影响西安地区公路交通事故相关因素依次为:能见度因子、相对湿度因子和降水因子; 而在秋冬半年 (10月—次年3月), 依次为温度因子、能见度因子、降水因子。     

海南气象影视广告营销及发展对策分析

针对海南气象影视广告业现状和存在问题,分析了海南气象影视广告媒体的优劣势,并提出了相应的解决方法和经营策略,从而推动气象影视广告业不断创新发展。     

数值预报发展的新方向——集合数值预报

数值预报走过了百年的历史（V．Bjerknes，1904），取得了了不起的成就，预报准确率有了很大的提高。但是，考虑到大气的非线性作用以及初值和模式造成的数值预报不确定性，要提高传统的单一确定性预报的技巧越来越难。基于大气初值的敏感性试验，Lorenz提出了数值预报发展的新方向——集合数值预报。 通过介绍集合数值预报的基本思想和方法；并针对初值和模式的不确定性，概述现有集合数值预报成员的产生方法及国内外的研究进展；同时解释怎样检验集合预报的结果的论述，如何从众多的集合预报产品中提炼有用的信息及预报产品的释用。     

电视气象节目静态图片素材的选用

针对电视气象节目中图片素材的选用,总结了静态图片素材的选择和运用中需要注意的问题。认为编辑人员的思想素质和审美意识高低会直接影响到电视天气预报节目的质量,适当运用美学知识,能够使节目的观赏性大大增强。     

A Mediterranean derecho: Catalonia (Spain), 17th August 2003

At approximately 6:10 UTC in the morning of 17th August 2003, a squall line developed over south Catalonia (the northeast region of Spain). During the next 9 h, the squall moved rapidly northeast and crossed Catalonia and the French regions of Languedoc–Roussillon and Province, damaging and uprooting hundreds of trees and blocking trains in the region. Wind gusts reached were recoded up to 52 m/s with evidence of F2 intensity damage. This case study shows the characteristics of a derecho (widespread convectively induced windstorm).Radar observations of the evolving squall line show signatures often correlated with damaging surface winds, including:

a. Bow echoes,

b. Rear inflow notches,

c. Rear inflow jets,

d. Medium altitude radial convergence,

e. Narrow gradient of very marked reflectivity,

f. Development of isolated cells ahead of the convective line,

g. A band of convection off the northern end of the line known as a “warm advection wing”.

When examining the different surface observations, satellite, radar imagery and cloud-to-ground lightning data, this case shows many similarities to those investigated in the United States. The derecho is a hybrid case, but has many characteristics of warm season derechoes. This emanates from a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) moving along a quasi-stationary, low-level thermal boundary in an environment characterized by high potential instability and relatively strong mid-tropospheric winds.     

Numerical Weather Prediction in China in the New Century ——Progress, Problems and Prospects

This paper summarizes the recent progress of numerical weather prediction(NWP)research since the last review was published.The new generation NWP system named GRAPES(the Global and Regional Assimila- tion and Prediction System),which consists of variational or sequential data assimilation and nonhydrostatic prediction model with options of configuration for either global or regional domains,is briefly introduced, with stress on their scientific design and preliminary results during pre-operational implementation.In ad- dition to the development of GRAPES,the achievements in new methodologies of data assimilation,new improvements of model physics such as parameterization of clouds and planetary boundary layer,mesoscale ensemble prediction system and numerical prediction of air quality are presented.The scientific issues which should be emphasized for the future are discussed finally.     

地面自动气象站数据采集处理系统设计

针对我国气象台站地面观测现状,结合我国的实际情况,提出一种地面自动站数据采集处理系统方案.该系统的设计和部分电路的实验室调试工作,现已完成对该系统采集的数据的质量进行了分析和控制,并对系统进行了可靠性评估.     

HOUSEHOLD CHANGE,ACCESSORY APARTMENTS,AND LOW INCOME HOUSING IN SUBURBS*

This paper describes the characteristics of accessory apartments (rented housing units within owner-occupied single family homes) and the circumstances which give rise to them. Survey data from a New York suburb indicate that these apartments provide inexpensive housing for entry level workers, many of whom are related to the home owners. Analyses suggest that “empty nest’ households who anticipate a decline in income and live in a house whose structure facilitates a conversion are likely to create accessory apartments in their homes. Some implications of these findings for residential succession in suburban areas are explored.     

利用K-邻域频数法处理多普勒雷达原始资料

利用K-邻域频数法对714SDN型多普勒天气雷达原始资料进行预处理，分析了参数的选取对处理结果的影响，得出了一些重要结论。根据应用中出现的问题，对该方法作了补充完善，使得补测效果更加有效。     

浅谈电视天气预报节目解说词的编写

目前,山西省的电视天气预报节目主持人大都不是气象专业人员,因此,解说词的编写质量高低就成了整个天气预报节目能否取得观众认可的一个重要因素。要编一份成功的解说词,不仅要及时掌握大量的实时气象信息,也要充分了解本地天气气候背景,还要学习积累气象科普、专业服务等多方面的知识,并运用娴熟的文学技巧,从通俗易懂的角度向观众朋友们传递方便实用的气象信息。