Finding the most appropriate precipitation probability distribution for stochastic weather generation and hydrological modelling in Nordic watersheds

Six precipitation probability distributions (exponential, Gamma, Weibull, skewed normal, mixed exponential and hybrid exponential/Pareto distributions) are evaluated on their ability to reproduce the statistics of the original observed time series. Each probability distribution is also indirectly assessed by looking at its ability to reproduce key hydrological variables after being used as inputs to a lumped hydrological model. Data from 24 weather stations and two watersheds (Chute‐du‐Diable and Yamaska watersheds) in the province of Quebec (Canada) were used for this assessment. Various indices or statistics, such as the mean, variance, frequency distribution and extreme values are used to quantify the performance in simulating the precipitation and discharge. Performance in reproducing key statistics of the precipitation time series is well correlated to the number of parameters of the distribution function, and the three‐parameter precipitation models outperform the other models, with the mixed exponential distribution being the best at simulating daily precipitation. The advantage of using more complex precipitation distributions is not as clear‐cut when the simulated time series are used to drive a hydrological model. Although the advantage of using functions with more parameters is not nearly as obvious, the mixed exponential distribution appears nonetheless as the best candidate for hydrological modelling. The implications of choosing a distribution function with respect to hydrological modelling and climate change impact studies are also discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of environmental fate and sinks of PCDD/Fs during specific extreme weather events in Taiwan

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) are persistent organic pollutants (POPs) that are formed and released unintentionally from anthropogenic sources. The high persistence of PCDD/Fs results in the concentrations of these contaminants in environment decreasing only very slowly. Two transport pathways, air and water, carry PCDD/Fs into all regions of the world. Recently, more frequent extreme weather events, such as storms and floods, have been projected to occur as a result of global warming. Extreme weather events have a documented impact on the remobilization and subsequent bioavailability of POPs. In this study, three specific episodes, namely winter monsoon, southeast biomass burning and tropical cyclone (typhoon) events, which influence the environmental fate and transport of PCDD/Fs in Taiwan, were evaluated based on a climate change scenario. During the winter (northeast) monsoon period, the temperature and relative humidity observed in northern Taiwan decreases sharply. During this time, the quantity of PCDD/Fs adsorbed onto suspended particles, as observed at background sites, was found to increase from 300 ± 127 to 630 ± 115 pg I-TEQ g-TSP⁻¹, which is even higher than that measured in Taipei City (438 ± 80 pg I-TEQ g-TSP⁻¹). Hence, the winter monsoon not only brings cold air but also transports air pollutants and dust over long distances from mainland China to Taiwan. During the 2010 Southeast Asia biomass burning events (2010/3/22–3/28), the level of atmospheric PCDD/Fs were measured in central Taiwan (Mt. Lulin) and in the source region of northern Thailand (Chiang Mai); this revealed that the variations in atmospheric PCDD/F concentrations at these two sites followed a similar pattern. On 25 March 2010, the atmospheric PCDD/F concentration increased dramatically from 1.43 to 6.09 fg I-TEQ m⁻³ at Mt. Lulin and from 7.64 to 12.1 fg I-TEQ m⁻³ in northern Thailand. However, the atmospheric PCDD/F concentration decreased dramatically 1 day after the biomass burning event. Based on the measurements from a dated sediment core collected at a reservoir in northern Taiwan, the sharp increases in input fluxes of PCDD/Fs and mineral-derived elements levels in 1990 (20 ng I-TEQ m⁻² year⁻¹), 2001 (17 ng I-TEQ m⁻² year⁻¹), 2004 (16 ng I-TEQ m⁻² year⁻¹) and 2005 (15 ng I-TEQ m⁻² year⁻¹) seem to be a result of a deep turbid layer formed upstream due to landslides and/or mud flows during the typhoon season. This finding demonstrates the effect of typhoon events on the long-term remobilization of PCDD/Fs as well as supporting the hypothesis that such events would have the potential to remobilize pollutants that have been deposited previously.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION ON THE RESPONSE OF LAND SURFACE TO SEVERE WEATHER

A coupled model of RAMS3b(Regional Atmospheric Modeling System,Version 3b)andLSPM(a land surface process model),in which some basic hydrological processes such asprecipitation,evapotranspiration.surface runoff,infiltration and bottom drainage are included,has been established.With the coupled model,we have simulated the response of soil to the severeweather process which caused the disastrous flood in north italy during 4-7.November,1994,simultaneously compared with the observation and the original RAMS3b,which has a soil andvegetation parameterization scheme(hereafter,SVP)emphasizing on the surface energy fluxes,while some hydrological processes in the soil are not described clearly.The results show that the differences between coupling LSPM and SVP exist mainly in theresponse of soil to the precipitation.The soil in the SVP never saturates under the strong input ofprecipitation,while the newly coupled model seems better,the soil has been saturated for one dayor more and causes strong surface runoff,which constitutes the flood.Further sensitivityexperiments show that the surface hydrological processes are very sensitive to the initial soilmoisture and soil type when we compared the results with a relatively dry case and sandy soil.The coupled model has potentiality for simulation on the interaction between regional climateand land surface hydrological processes,and the regional water resources research concerningdesertification,drought and flood.     

青藏高原东部地区的大气电特征

对青藏高原东部地区大气电热特征的分析发现：晴天大气电场的日变化呈单峰单谷型,峰值出现在０４：００￣０５：００左右,谷值出现在１７：００￣１８：００左右;雷暴电荷结构主要为偶极性,雷暴持续时间短,大约有７３．３％的雷暴持续时间小于０．５ｈ,闪电较少。不同降水过程的雷暴,地面电场特征不同。负地闪比正地闪多,正负地闪的比例约为１：８。７７．８％的负地闪为单次回击,正地闪均为单次回击。正地闪比负地闪的强度     

几个常用气象要素相关场显著性检验的统计模拟

对天气预报,特别是气候分析和预测中经常用到的几个气象要素场,应用相关场显著性检验的统计模拟方法,计算出了某一单点或区域平均气象要素与全球ＯＬＲ,北太平洋ＳＳＴ和北半球５００ｈＰａ高度的相关场的显著性检验判据。并对气象统计预报中相关场显著性检验的问题进行了讨论。     

阿克苏地区初夏一次大降水天气分析

综合分析了阿克苏地区2002年6月15～17日夜间大降水天气发生的气象条件和高低层天气形势演变，同时揭示了大降水出现前能量指数、云顶亮温与大降水落区具有较好的对应关系。     

应用双踪示波器检修数字化713雷达DV IP 故障

通过对电视天气预报广告收入与经济发展状况的相关性分析，提出了要从地方经济发展的实际水平和对地方经济发展的前瞻性预测出发，对电视天气预报广告人力和财力进行合理投入的建议。     

河南省冬小麦拔节-抽穗期干旱天气指数保险研究

利用1971—2014年河南103个台站地面气象逐日观测资料和冬小麦产量资料,选择对产量有明显影响的拔节-抽穗期干旱作为天气指数保险设计的气象灾害类型,分析了河南冬小麦拔节-抽穂期干旱发生基本规律,并开展干旱风险评估。定义降水负距平百分率作为冬小麦干旱天气指数,并利用173组典型灾害样本建立了冬小麦拔节-抽穗期干旱天气指数与减产率的关系模型;在此基础上,初步设计了冬小麦干旱天气指数保险产品,并基于风险评估结果对天气指数产品费率进行修订。结果表明,河南冬小麦干旱程度总体由西南向东北增强;拔节-抽穂期,豫北地区的干旱风险最高;其次是豫西北、豫东和豫中;豫西南和豫南的风险相对较低;基于天气指数模型和历史赔付状况分析,将降水负距平百分率60%作为触发值,并确定了不同干旱天气指数等级的赔付标准;基于干旱风险评估结果修订后的河南各地区的天气指数保险费率在9. 2%～11. 2%,单位面积保费在29. 8～36. 3元·亩~(-1)。     

沙漠气象若干问题研究进展

沙漠占据地球陆地面积的1/4,沙漠天气和气候对全球生态、环境及气候等的影响一直都受到社会各界极大关注。本文参考国内外有关沙漠气象学研究的代表性著作,简要回顾了沙漠气象学的国内外发展历史,并从沙漠表层物理特性研究、沙漠天气与边界层研究、沙漠气候研究、沙漠影响区域及全球环境研究等多个方面阐述了沙漠气象学的研究进展。最后对沙漠气象学研究提出了展望。     

纹理分析法识别静止卫星红外云图和监测汛期强对流天气系统

根据空间灰度共现矩阵纹理分析原理,制作卫星红外云图纹理分析法系统。选取50幅2003～2004年甘肃西部汛期对流性降水的FY-2红外云图,进行纹理特征量的计算和统计分析,并用甘肃省肃北县2004年6月29日18时的FY-2冰雹云的红外云图为个例进行检验。结果表明:该系统能够有效提取反映对流云团纹理特征的参数值;汛期强对流云红外云图的能量值接近1,比惯性矩和熵的特征量大2个量级。