9414号热带气旋(DOUG)非对称结构和对降水影响的分析

ＤＯＵＧ热带气旋在靠近华东沿海大陆北上过程中，气旋西侧的降水强度显著减弱，主要是ＤＯＵＧ气旋的完全非对称结构造成的。本文从大尺度天气系统配置、卫星云图和中尺度数值模式计算结果分析了ＤＯＵＧ气旋内区和外区非对称结构的成因和演变。外区的非对称结构主要由环境场的大尺度天气系统的东高西低气压场配置造成的。气旋近中心中－β尺度的辐散下沉系统的发展是造成内区非对称结构的主要原因。二者的形成是相互独立的。但内区非对称结构的发展会促使外区非对称结构的加强。前者向后者逼近并结合造成了ＤＯＵＧ的完全非对称结构     

日本数值预报产品降水预报准确性检验

作者对日本部分数值预报产品对上海市市区的降水预报准确性作了初步检验。检验结果表明，它们的降水预报正确率仅为６０％左右，且月际变化较大，无明显规律。使用数值预报产品时必须结合本地区当时的实际情况，根据多种工具结合预报经验综合运用，不能盲目照搬。     

Impact of Atmospheric Surface-layer Parameterizations in the new Land-surface Scheme of the NCEP Mesoscale Eta Model

We tested three atmospheric surface-layer parameterization schemes (Mellor-Yamadalevel 2, Paulson, and modified Louis), both ina 1-D mode in the new NCEP land-surface scheme against long-term FIFE and HAPEX observations, and in a coupled 3-D mode withthe NCEP mesoscale Eta model. The differences inthese three schemes and the resulting surface exchange coefficients do not, in general, lead to significant differences in model simulated surface fluxes, skin temperature, andprecipitation, provided the same treatment of roughness length for heat is employed.Rather, the model is more sensitive to the choice of the roughness length for heat. To assess the latter, we also tested two approaches to specifythe roughness length for heat: 1) assuming the roughness length for heat is a fixed ratio of the roughness length for momentum, and 2) relating this ratio to the roughness Reynolds number as proposed by Zilitinkevich.Our 1-D column model sensitivity tests suggested that the Zilitinkevich approach can improve the surface heat fluxand skin temperature simulations. A long-term test with the NCEP mesoscaleEta model indicated that this approach can also reduce forecast precipitation bias. Based on these simulations, in January 1996 we operationally implemented the Paulsonscheme with the new land-surface scheme of the NCEP Eta model, along with the Zilitinkevich formulation to specify the roughness length for heat.     

致洪暴雨中期预报进展

结合我国国情,从防洪减灾的迫切需要出发,进行增长暴雨预见期的研究。采用气象与水文结合的方法,提出“致洪暴雨”的新概念,并简要地论述了近年来国内在致洪暴雨中期预报研究试验方面的若干新进展,其内容包括致洪暴雨过程出现的天气气候特征,大气环流形势背景、卫星云图及OLR场分布特点、大气超长波、长波及合成行星波、低频振荡、大气物理参数诊断、暴雨时空分布特点及其与洪水的关系,以及中期预报方法的探索等。     

Vietnamese activity in the Adelaide real estate market

Significant real estate activity by Vietnamese households in Adelaide did not occur until 1979, and since then the groups buying activity has been heavily concentrated in the northwest region of the metropolitan area. Therefore, the median housing price paid by Vietnamese buyers has not kept pace with the median price paid by all buyers. Concentration also causes Vietnamese buyers to be disproportionately active in the middle‐to‐lower end of the market, within which there has been a strong preference for rural properties and for houses rather than home units and maisonettes. Amongst Vietnamese buyers who subsequently sell their properties, the majority have not re‐entered the market and their capital gain from ownership has been marginal.     

Tropospheric ozone profiles near equator and meteorological parameters

This is a study of ozone profile shapes in the 800 to 100 millibar range obtained with balloonsonde data over Trivandrum (8.5° N) during 1975–76 and possible associations of these shapes to some meteorological parameters.Whereas monotonic ozone profiles were noted with clear weather conditions, those associated with cloud cover show three basic anomalous features. Some bulges of increased values are observed in the range of 800 to 500 mb. In the 500–100 mb range, short range or localized cloud cover or passing weather disturbances are associated with fluctuation patterns in the ozone profile and an average depleted value of ozone. The fluctuations are also associated with changing wind speed and direction at these heights.Possible causative mechanisms are discussed. Lightning associated with thundestorm, producing additional CO and NO are sought to interpret the bulges at lower heights. The decrease in values as well as the fluctuation patterns are suggested as due to possible incursion of water vapour from troposphere to stratosphere in the tropical region and dynamical effects associated with it.     

积层混合性暴雨三维动力结构的双多普勒雷达对比分析

对2002年7月22～23日长江中游的积层混合性暴雨的中尺度三维动力结构进行了双多普勒雷达对比观测分析，表明中低层切变线、中尺度辐合线和中尺度气旋是这次强降水的重要特征；不同反演算法得到的三维动力模型差别较大，必须引起重视。     

山东省天气预报逐级指导技术研究

介绍了山东省天气预报逐级指导技术研究的技术方法和预报逐级指导业务系统；给出了常规要素、冰雹和暴雨预报对比试验的TS评分结果和研究结论。     

浅谈电视天气预报节目包装一体化

根据多年来对电视天气预报节目的实际包装经验，简述了天气预报节目包装一体化的重要性，从节目所在的外部环境和内部环境出发，分别阐述了节目包装一体化的方法和应该考虑的因素。     

灾害性天气对阿克苏地区棉花生产的影响

灾害性天气已经成为阿克苏地区发展优质、高产、低成本棉花生产的重要制约因素。本文根据近10年的资料，着重分析寒潮、霜冻、低温、大风、沙尘、暴雨洪水、冰雹等灾害性天气对棉花生长的不同时期的影响，并提出对策建议。