一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。     

Geo-effectiveness of solar wind extremes

Examples of extreme events of solar wind and their effect on geomagnetic conditions are discussed here. It is found that there are two regimes of high speed solar wind streams with a threshold of ∼ 850 km s^-1. Geomagnetic activity enhancement rate (GAER) is defined as an average increase in Ap value per unit average increase in the peak solar wind velocity (Vp) during the stream. GAER was found to be different in the two regimes of high speed streams with +ve and-ve IMF. GAER is 0.73 and 0.53 for solar wind streams with +ve and -ve IMF respectively for the extremely high speed streams (< 850 km s^-1). This indicates that streams above the threshold speed with +ve IMF are 1.4 times more effective in enhancing geomagnetic activity than those with -ve IMF. However, the high speed streams below the threshold with -ve IMF are 1.1 times more effective in enhancing geomagnetic activity than those with +ve IMF. The violent solar activity period (October–November 2003) of cycle 23 presents a very special case during which many severe and strong effects were seen in the environment of the Earth and other planets; however, the z-component of IMF (Bz) is mostly positive during this period. The most severe geomagnetic storm of this cycle occurred when Bz was positive.     

An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

Implementing low-cost landslide risk reduction: a pilot study in unplanned housing areas of the Caribbean

Landslides pose a serious physical and environmental threat to vulnerable communities living in areas of unplanned housing on steep slopes in the Caribbean. Some of these communities have, in the past, had to be relocated, at costs of millions of dollars, because of major slides triggered by tropical storm rainfall. Even so, evidence shows that: (1) risk reduction is a marginal activity; (2) there has been minimal uptake of hazard maps and vulnerability assessments and (3) there is little on-the-ground delivery of construction for risk reduction. This article directly addresses these issues by developing a low-cost approach to the identification of the potential pore pressure changes that trigger such slides we seek to address these three commentaries directly. A complex 45–60° slope site in St Lucia, West Indies was selected as a pilot for a modelling approach that uses numerical models (FLAC and CHASM) to verify the need for surface water management to effectively reduce landslide risk. Following the model confirmation, a series of drains were designed and constructed at the site. Post-construction evidence indicates the methodology to be sound, in that the site was stable in subsequent 1-in-1 to 1-in-4 year rainfall events. A critical feature of the approach is that it is community-based from data acquisition through to community members participating in construction.     

一个具有下垫面温度耦合的大气环流的统计—动力模式

本文从动力学定律出发,推导了一个线性的、具有下垫面温度耦合的大气环流的统计—动力模式,并用该模式对500hPa高度场及1000hPa温度场作1～30天的平均预报试验。模式的预报结果大大优于惯性预报,但耦合与不耦合的结果差别不大。     

Progress in Scatterometer Application

Progress in the scientific application of space-based scatterometer data over the past two decades is reviewed. There has been continuous improvement in coverage, resolution, and accuracy. Besides the traditional applications in weather and ocean-atmosphere interaction, which are based on ocean surface wind vectors, emerging applications over land and ice are also described. Future missions and new technology are introduced. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

浙江主要气象灾害概述

气象灾害每年都有,只是轻重程度不同。就全国和全省范围来说,很少有真正风调雨顺的年份。本文根据1951～1988年38年的气象历史资料及有关政府部门的材料、简报、报道,统计出台风、洪涝、海上大风和强对流等几种主要气象灾害对浙江经济造成损失和伤亡人数。文中对主要气象灾害的特点、一般规律和灾情作了概述,并列出一些典型实例,提出了预防气象灾害的意见。     

Issues concerning global warming today

The global weather of today is growing significantly warmer; this is an indisputable fact. However, the scientific community has not yet reached consensus on the causes of global warming and its possible consequences. This paper introduces the causes of global warming and summarizes its results, which both involve a series of huge and complex system issues. Our top priority is to pinpoint the main reason and the interrelated links between causative factors by adopting a macro-approach, or comprehensive comparison analysis. Its physical mechanism was then determined and its digital model established after quantitative study. __________ Translated from Green Leaf, 2007, (8): 34–35 [译自: 绿叶]     

RACIALIZED TOPOGRAPHIES: ALTITUDE AND RACE IN SOUTHERN CITIES*

ABSTRACT. This study examines altitudinal residential segregation by race in 146 cities in the U.S. South. It begins by embedding the topic in recent theorizations of the social construction of nature, the geography of race, and environmental justice. Second, it focuses on how housing markets, particularly in the South, tend to segregate minorities in low‐lying, flood‐prone, and amenity‐poor segments of urban areas. It tests empirically the hypothesis that blacks are disproportionately concentrated in lower‐altitude areas using gis to correlate race and elevation by digital elevation‐model block group within each city in 1990 and 2000. The statistical results confirm the suspected trend. A map of coefficients indicates strong positive associations in cities in the interior South‐where the hypothesis is confirmed‐and an inverse relationship near the coast, where whites dominate higher‐valued coastal properties. Selected city case studies demonstrate these relationships connecting the broad dynamics of racial segregation to the particularities of individual places.     

Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.