海风雷暴的观测分析和数值模拟研究进展

沿海地区经济相对繁荣,城市化水平较高,对天气和气候的依赖性强,突发性强对流天气所造成的灾害也会更加严重;同时沿海地区的强对流天气又与海风环流密切相关,因此沿海地区海风雷暴的研究受到了日益广泛的关注,成为了气象学和大气科学中的重要研究对象。在过去的半个多世纪中,海风雷暴的观测和模拟研究取得了大量的研究成果。本文通过对这些研究工作进行回顾和总结,系统地分析了国内外的研究现状,重点讨论了海风雷暴的结构和特征、发展演变过程、触发机制及其预报预警。最后对海风雷暴未来的研究方向进行了探讨,提出了一些有待于研究或需深入研究的问题,以利于今后更好的开展有关海风雷暴的工作,加深对其发生发展规律的认识,提高预报预警水平。     

气象预警信息一键式发布系统研究与应用

基于WebGIS、HTTP通信、数据库等技术,制定了一键式预警信息发布规范,有效整合了电子显示屏、预警大喇叭、手机等预警发布终端,开发了气象预警信息一键式发布平台,实现了地图综合显示、气象数据叠加、任意预警区域选取、一键式发布预警信息等功能,提高了预警信息发布的可视化水平,保证了多终端预警信息发布的高效性、一致性。该系统的一键式信息发布技术,为气象预警发布开拓了新思路,能够有效提升业务水平和预警发布能力。     

Application of ICTs in Airspace Management and Collaborative Decision-Making—Analyzing the Risk Avoidance in the Condition of Risky Weather as an Example

The application of ICTs makes structural change of the development and effective utilization of airspace. Next generation air transportation system (NextGen) includes new automation concepts with automated information to support the traffic control decision-making. As a result, in the field of academia and industry, air traffic controllers integrate information automatically while making decisions to change the previous manually integrated and decided pattern. The safety ability of airspace is reduced and airspace system is endangered under risky weather conditions of airspace. So there is an urgent demand for new information and communication technologies. The paper is an overview of the information constitution and support of NextGen and provides the study of the development of technique of airspace collaborative decision-makings to confirm the new features based on ICTs. It contains basic application-the input of data and output of the routes of airspace management and collaborative decision-making, and general application-the choose of probability nets of avoiding risky weather, and special application-the affection in the management of the air routes, which are made up of position and direction. The research shows the accurate schedule characteristics of airspace management and collaborative decision-making based on ICTs, which made the space accurate by time accurate. Second, the visualization of airspace management and collaborative decision-making based on ICTs made the maps of flight path under mobile data quickly generated. This could make the fully development and utilization of national airspace, ensure safety, and reduce air traffic controllers’ workload and the costs in delaying and operating in risky weather.     

松辽盆地南缘基性岩脉中捕获锆石U-Pb年龄及其对基底岩浆事件的制约

团山子基性脉岩为松辽盆地南缘晚中生代最后一期岩浆活动,在其中获得了较多的捕获锆石。为了反映松辽盆地基底岩浆活动事件,对基性脉岩中捕获锆石进行了锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年。捕获锆石阴极发光(CL)图像和Th/U比值显示具有岩浆成因的特点。从锆石定年结果得到8组年龄,反映出早侏罗世晚期(176Ma)、海西期(291Ma)、加里东期(467Ma)、新元古代(942Ma)、中元古代(1368Ma)、古元古代(1886Ma和2165Ma)、新太古代(2458Ma)岩浆事件记录。松辽盆地南部基底组成以古生代和早中生代岩浆岩为主,并可能存在西保安群前寒武纪结晶基底(942Ma),并经历了复杂的岩浆演化。中元古代、古元古代、新太古代年龄的锆石具有磨圆和反应边,可能为与华北克拉通岩浆事件形成的锆石被搬运到松辽盆地南部,并被再次捕获的结果,反映松辽盆地南部与华北大陆具有一定的联系,但不确定存在该期的结晶基底。     

IS THE EXTREME SNOW DEPTH RECORD FOR NORDLAND,NORWAY RELIABLE?

A snow depth of 370 cm at Dunderlandsdalen in winter 1919–20 is the largest recorded at stations in Nordland, Norway. During the period 1895–1924, the average maximum annual value there was 150.4 cm; at other stations it ranged from 38.5 to 190.1 cm. The ratio of maxima at other stations to that at Dunderlandsdalen was particularly low in 1919–20. In Nordland generally, that winter's recorded precipitation was slightly above the 30‐year average, but at Dunderlandsdalen it exceeded the average by 34%. At all stations except Dunderlandsdalen, 26 Jan.–1 Feb. was a dry period; at Dunderlandsdalen, 51.7 mm was recorded. Only one day without snowfall was recorded at Dunderlandsdalen between early January and early February, but elsewhere there were few days with snowfall. The difference in snowfall frequency and snow depth at Dunderlandsdalen in 1919–20 from values recorded elsewhere in Nordland contrasts with the relationships in other winters between 1895 and 1924. No observations were made at Dunderlandsdalen in winter 1917–18. Two of the householders there died in 1916. A change of personnel making the observations may have been responsible for the data gap and for the anomalous 1919 data. Changes made to buildings or the recording site in 1917 or 1918 may have resulted in increased snow depths as a result of drifting. Maintaining a record of climatic extremes and their environmental consequences is important. Data must be accurate. In view of this, it would be sensible to regard the validity of the 370 cm Dunderlandsdalen maximum as doubtful.     

滇中地区早前寒武纪地质研究新进展

滇中地区中元古界"昆阳群"的地层层序是长期争议的重大基础地质问题,在一定程度上制约了地质调查工作的部署及勘查效果,也制约着滇中地区前寒武纪地质研究水平的进一步提高。云南省地质调查院在进行《云南省区域地质志》(第二版、修编)、1:5万二街等4幅区域调查子项目工作中,在前人工作成果的基础上,通过大量的野外地质调查及锆石同位素年代学研究,在滇中地区早前寒武纪地层层序及时代、重大地质事件记录、早期生命与环境协同演化等方面取得了一系列的新发现,具有重要意义。     

A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.     

微波辐射计在对流天气预报中的应用

选取2016—2018年每年4—9月份RPG-HATPRO型42通道微波辐射计观测的不稳定指数参数(K、SI、CAPE、LI)及水汽参数(IWV、LWP),研究得出各参数触发雷雨大风、短时强降水的阈值条件为K>37℃、SI<-1℃、IWV>60 kg/m~2、LWP>400 g/m~2,而LI、CAPE无法对3种天气类型进行区分。利用费舍判别分析方法,将不稳定指数参数及水汽参数作为预报因子,建立预报方程并进行检验,结果表明:二级判别方程预测对流天气的准确率为76%,可以作为预报对流天气的辅助工具;多级判别方程不能很好地区分3种天气类型,但将其作为修正后的二级判别方程使用,能提高对流天气的测中概率。     

区域自动气象站蓄电池异常状态判别方法

针对天津市一种常见的CAWS600型区域自动气象站对其供电及功耗进行了详细分析,利用对电池放电特性曲线的归一化处理,得到了针对12V38AH铅酸蓄电池的剩余容量估算方法,同时利用该站蓄电池工作电压的统计规律,提出了针对蓄电池工作电压的极值判定、时间/空间一致性质量控制方法,并对2017年逐10min观测数据进行检验。检验结果显示,文章提出的质量控制方法可以有效识别出蓄电池异常站点,针对2017年个站蓄电池持续放电情况可提前10d定位。     

安全射界技术在人工影响天气对空作业中的应用

本文根据人工影响天气(以下简称人影)作业安全射界管理需求,讨论分析了影响人影作业安全射界因素包括装备性能、弹药稳定性、高空气流、站点海拔和人员操作水平等,提出一种人影作业安全射界精细化绘制思路和方法,设计开发了基于高分辨率卫星影像数据和数字高程模型数据(以下简称DEM数据)人工标识技术的人影安全射界绘制系统。经实践应用,该系统输出的人影作业安全射界图,可解决传统射界图安全标记要素不全、绘制分辨率不高、信息化程度低等问题,对提升作业效益和安全管理水平具有一定的实用价值,可以向开展人影作业的各级单位推广使用。