宁夏3～7天天气预报逐日滚动制作系统

在建立ＭＯＳ预报系统的基础上,充分利用实时资料库中所提供的各种气象信息,开发应用多种预报方法以及有关实况、气候背景资料、对ＭＯＳ预报结果逐步进行人机交互订正,最后生成对外发布的宁夏各地３￣７天中期天气预报。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF TURBULENCE SPECTRA IN DIFFERENT WEATHER PROCESSES UNDER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS*

In this paper,the data chosen from measurements by supersonic anemometers in Tongxian County of Beijing in 1990 are used to study characteristics of turbulence spectra in precipitation weather.Some turbulence parameters such as turbulence intensity,heat and momentum fluxes,friction velocity,M-O length and stability parameter are calculated and their dependence on turbulence spectra in different stability conditions are analyzed.Some encouraging results are obtained and compared with others' results.     

梧州市森林火险气象预报

使用１９８０－１９９１年森林火灾及相应的气象资料，分析了森林火灾与有关气象要素的相关性。在此基础上，计算了森林火险天气预报指标，建立了预报模式，开展了森林火险天气等级预报。经试用效果较好。     

谱模式中截断方式对月长期天气预报影响的数值研究

以１９９２－０４－０１Ｔ１２（ＧＭＴ）北京国家气象中心的客观分析资料为初始场,通过对比分析ＣＣＭ１（Ｒ１５Ｌ７）模式的月数值预报结果,研究了谱模式在不同截断方式下,水平分辨率及网格结构分地月长期烽值预报的影响。结果表明：虽然以上两模式具有相同的垂直结构,以及相近的高斯网格格点数和计算量,但由于Ｒ１５Ｌ７较Ｔ２１Ｌ７有更为合理的水平分辨率分布,具有由高纬长方形（长轴为南北向）经中纬正方形到低纬长方形     

714CD多普勒天气雷达和711测雨雷达探测雹云的对比分析

利用７１４ＣＤ多普勒天气雷达和７１１天气雷达对１９９５年８月２６日一次较强单体雹云的对比观测资料,分析了南疆北部渭干河灌区单体雹云的结构及发展演变特点,比较并分析了两部雷达观测结果的异同及其产生原因。结果表明：７１４ＣＤ多普勒天气雷达与７１１雷达相比具有探测能力强、探测精度高的优势,而且在探测雹云的结构方面,与７１１雷达的探测结果基本一致,可以引用７１１雷达长期以来对雹云的研究结果。     

Effects of Urbanization on Extreme Warmest Night Temperatures During Summer near Bohai

Many previous studies have focused on the impacts of urbanization on regional mean temperatures. Relatively few have analyzed changes in extreme temperatures. Here, we examine the impact of urbanization on extreme warmest night temperatures from 33 stations in the Bohai area between 1958 and 2009. We compute the Generalized Extreme Value（GEV） distribution of extreme warmest night temperatures and analyze long-term variations in its characteristic parameters. A new classification method based on the factor analysis of changes in extreme night temperatures is developed to detect the efects of urbanization in diferent cities. Of the three parameters that characterize the GEV distribution, the position parameter is the most representative of long-term changes in extreme warmest night temperatures. During the period of rapid urbanization（i.e., after 1978）, all three parameters of the GEV distribution are larger for the urban station group than for the reference station group, so are the magnitudes of their variations, and the urban areas have been experiencing higher extreme warmest night temperatures with larger variability. Diferent types of cities in the Bohai area have all experienced an urban heat island efect, with an average urbanization efect of approximately 0.3 per decade.     

Meteorology in Canada: A reaction to the rose report

The methods used in an earlier study focusing on the province of Ontario, Canada, were adapted for this current study to expand the study area over eastern Canada where the infrastructure is at risk of being impacted by freezing rain. To estimate possible impacts of climate change on future freezing rain events, a three-step process was used in the study: (1) statistical downscaling, (2) synoptic weather typing, and (3) future projections. A regression-based downscaling approach, constructed using different regression methods for different meteorological variables, was used to downscale the outputs of eight general circulation models to each of 42 hourly observing stations over eastern Canada. Using synoptic weather typing (principal components analysis, a clustering procedure, discriminant function analysis), the freezing rain-related weather types under historical climate (1958–2007) and future downscaled climate conditions (2016–2035, 2046–2065, 2081–2100) were identified for all selected stations. The potential changes in the frequency of future daily freezing rain events can be projected quantitatively by comparing future and historical frequencies of freezing rain-related weather types.

The modelled results show that eastern Canada could experience more freezing rain events late this century during the coldest months (i.e., December to February) than the averaged historical conditions. Conversely, during the warmest months of the study season (i.e., November and April in the southern regions, October in the northern regions), eastern Canada could experience less freezing rain events late this century. The increase in the number of daily freezing rain events in the future for the coldest months is projected to be progressively greater from south to north or from southwest to northeast across eastern Canada. The relative decrease in magnitude of future daily freezing rain events in the warmest months is projected to be much less than the relative increase in magnitude in the coldest months.     

北太平洋夏季大气环流的持续性异常及其对中国天气的影响

对太平洋北部持续性异常的研究表明，正、负异常的形热从发生、发展到消亡的演变过程十分相似，它们都始于东亚及西太平洋区域距平形势的变化，并在北太平洋及东亚地区出现一规则排列的距平异常区域，东亚及整个北半球的大气环流也相应地发生变化。太平洋北部环流的持续性异常对东亚特别是中国夏季的天气异常有重要影响。诊断分析和数值试验表明，夏季太平洋北部大气环流发生持续性异常与太平洋中低纬的海温异常关系密切。     

人体舒适度与气候康养相关研究及应用进展

随着全球气候变化加剧和极端天气气候事件增多,加之城市化进程不断推进,人口老龄化日趋凸显,广大民众追求舒适环境进行旅居康养的需求逐年提高,气候康养产业也逐渐成为热门产业。本文基于人体舒适度,概括了国内外气候量化表征的研究成果,归纳了不同舒适度与人群健康之间的利弊关系。在此基础上对气候康养理念,康养气候资源及其康养效应,以及康养地的适宜性评价进行了梳理,展望了相关学科研究及产业发展动向,旨在促进气象医学发展,为加快实现“健康中国2030”战略目标提供参考依据。     

基于TRMM/PR的长江下游地基雷达一致性订正

不同雷达观测相同目标的反射率因子差异会影响雷达组网应用效果,对无波束阻挡的X波段雷达而言,这种差异主要由雷达定标偏差和信号衰减引起,其中衰减包含降水导致的衰减以及天线罩水膜导致的衰减。为了订正定标偏差、天线罩水膜衰减以及降水衰减,设计了一个基于相控阵雷达组网的订正方法。首先,将天线罩水膜导致的衰减看作定标偏差的一部分,使用组网衰减订正算法做初次衰减订正;然后,通过构建一个雷达网观测偏差函数,使用梯度下降法求解各雷达之间的定标偏差;最后,将订正了定标偏差的原始反射率因子再次使用组网衰减订正算法进行二次衰减订正。对上述订正方法,用于广东省佛山市7部X波段相控阵天气雷达探测的一次冷空气降水过程进行检验。结果显示,传统的PIA (Path-integrated attenuation)算法订正结果与广州S波段天气雷达观测结果相关系数为0.53,均方根误差为9.0 dB, 而该算法这两项数值分别为0.64和8.4 dB,优于PIA;在台风外围的局地强降水过程中也得到了相同的结论。