陕西省地质灾害气象预报预警系统的应用与现状

从降水这一诱发地质灾害的关键因素入手，在对陕西省地质灾害分布规律及其与气象条件关系研究分析的基础上，确定不同区域不同降雨强度诱发地质灾害的临界值，建立了陕西省地质灾害气象预报预警系统。根据降雨量等级，利用神经网络算法，划分地质灾害预报预警等级，进行有效的防灾预报。     

虚假回波在强对流天气探测中的应用

根据2003年几次强对流天气的观测资料，对其中三体散射长钉、二次回波旁瓣回波等虚假回波进行了分析。初步得出了上述虚假回波在新一代C波段天气雷达图像上的特征，为强对流天气的雷达探测和识别提供一些依据。     

一次“高影响天气”的弱降雪过程的数值研究

该文对2001年12月7日下午北京的一次弱降雪天气过程进行了诊断分析和数值模拟研究。诊断结果表明:北京地区由于受500 hPa小槽东移及850 hPa东移小高压后部带来的来自东海和南海的偏南暖湿气流共同影响，造成降雪。数值模拟结果显示:MM5模式对这次降雪过程具有较好的模拟能力，不仅模拟出了北京地区的降雪量，而且对这次过程大尺度背景场的演变、触发机制和水汽源有很好的表述。利用诊断分析和数值模拟结果，对这次弱降雪过程引起交通大阻塞的可能因素进行了探讨，说明建立城市预警系统的迫切性。     

新疆雷暴天气过程分型

对新疆39a雷暴天气资料的普查，得到367次雷暴天气过程，归结出4种天气形势，雷暴天气由冷锋和中尺度高压造成。     

Evaluation of the Reduction in Uncertainty Obtained by Conditioning a 3D Stochastic Channel to Multiwell Pressure Data

A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.     

Quantitative analysis of variations in depositional sequence thickness from submarine channel levees

Abstract Thickness variations across‐levee and downchannel in acoustically defined depositional sequences from six submarine channel‐levee systems show consistent and quantifiable patterns. The thickness of depositional sequences perpendicular to the channel trend, i.e. across the levee, decreases exponentially, as characterized by a spatial decay constant, k. Similarly, the thickness of sediment at the levee crest decreases exponentially down the upper reaches of submarine channels and can be characterized by a second spatial decay constant, λ. The inverse of these decay constants has units of length and defines depositional length scales such that k^?1 is a measure of levee width and λ^?1 is a measure of levee length. Quantification of levee architecture in this way allowed investigation of relationships between levee architecture and channel dimensions. It was found that these measures of levee e‐folding width and levee e‐folding length are directly related to channel width and relief. The dimensions of channels and levees are thus intimately related, thereby limiting the range of potential channel‐levee morphologies, regardless of allocyclic forcing. A simple sediment budget model relates the product of the levee e‐folding width and e‐folding length to through‐channel volume discharge. A classification system based on the quantitative downchannel behaviour of levee architecture allows identification of a ‘mid‐channel’ reach, where sediment is passively transferred from the through‐channel flow to the levees as an overspilling flow. Downstream from this reach, the channel gradually looses its control on guiding turbidity currents, and the resulting flow can be considered as an unconfined or spreading flow.     

北京地区3500a来的气候与环境变迁——兼论昆明湖的沧桑

通过对北京颐和园昆明湖中沉积物的沉积特征的研究,结合历史记载,对昆明湖水域的形成时间和发展过程有了深入的了解,据此对北京地区3500a以来的气候与环境变迁作出了科学的划分,为探讨北京地区未来的气候变化趋势将会有所启迪。     

西湖凹陷陆盆冲积体系河道演变规律探讨

西湖凹陷渐新统一中新统陆盆沉积发育了类型丰富的河道沉积，本文根据陆盆充填机制对盆地演化各阶段的控制作用，从沉积层序、沉积构造、岩性组合特征诸方面探讨了盆地演化过程的河道变迁特点。     

VORTEX FLOW FIELD IN A SCOUR HOLE AROUND ABUTMENTS

The three-dimensional flow field in a scour hole around different abutments under a clear water regime was experimentally measured in a laboratory flume, using the Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV). Three types of abutments used in the experiments were vertical-wall (rectangular section), 45° wing-wall (45° polygonal section) and semicircular. The three-dimensional time-averaged velocity components were detected at different vertical planes for vertical-wall abutment and azimuthal planes for wing-wall and semicircular abutments. The velocity components were also measured at different horizontal planes. In the upstream, presentations of flow field through vector plots at vertical / azimuthal and horizontal planes show the existence of a primary vortex associated with the downflow inside the scour hole. On the other hand, in the downstream, the flow field shows a reversed flow near the abutments having a subsequent recovery with a passage of flow as a part of the main flow. The data presented in this p     

Mid‐Holocene sub‐blanket‐peat alluvia and sediment sources in the upper Liffey valley,Co. Wicklow,Ireland

A recently exposed section across a ?rst‐order valley buried beneath the regional blanket peat on hillside slopes in the upper Liffey valley, Co. Wicklow, is described. The section shows two alluvia within a shallow valley form underlain by an extensive boulder and stone line over regional till and weathered granite. ¹⁴C dates from wood in the alluvia indicate the older alluvium to have formed between 4324 ± 53 BP and 4126 ± 45 BP and the younger between 3217 ± 53 BP and 2975 ± 53 BP . The basal layer of the overlying peat yielded a date of 2208 ± 61 BP . The younger alluvium shows the effects of soil paludi?cation prior to the peat expansion. Dated pollen analyses elsewhere in the upper catchment con?rm the spread of blanket peat over most areas above 350 m after 4000–3600 BP . The buried valley was contributing sediments to the mid‐Holocene ?oodplains in the upper Liffey valley prior to the extension of blanket peat over the catchment after which sediment yields from it and the other catchment slopes declined. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.