近30年来天山托木尔峰东侧分水岭处冰川变化

利用1978年出版的航测地形图与1976年MSS影像(地形图于20世纪70年代初期测绘)、1990年landsatTM影像、2002年CBERS影像对西天山托木尔峰以东分水岭处的5条冰川近30年来的动态变化进行了研究。研究结果表明,这5条冰川在1970年代初-2002年近30年来整体上处于退缩状态,这与该地区20世纪80、90年代气温升高导致冰雪消融加速而冬季降水量基本稳定即补给来源基本不变的趋势是相符合的。这也表明,在气候变暖的趋势下,该地区冰川的补给-消融动态平衡关系被打破,冰川总体上处于退缩状态。     

Responses to climate warming of hydrological processes in the upper Kelan River in the Altay Mountains, Xinjiang, China

Kelan River is a branch of the Ertix River, originating in the Altay Mountains in Xinjiang, northwestern China. The upper streams of the Kelan River are located on the southern slope of the Altay Mountains; they arise from small glacial lakes at an elevation of more than 2,500 m. The total water-collection area of the studied basin, from 988 to 3,480 m, is about 1,655 km2. Almost 95 percent of the basin area is covered with snow in winter. The westerly air masses deplete nearly all the moisture that comes in the form of snow during the winter months in the upper and middle reaches of the basin. That annual flow from the basin is about 382 mm, about 45 percent of which is contributed by snowmelt. The mean annual precipitation in the basin is about 620 mm, which is primarily concentrated in the upper and middle basin. The Kelan River system could be vulnerable to climate change because of substantial contribution from snowmelt runoff. The hydrological system could be altered significantly because of a warming of the climate. The impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle and events would pose an additional threat to the Altay region. The Kelan River, a typical snow-dominated watershed, has more area at higher elevations and accumulates snow during the winter. The peak flow occurs as a result of snow-melting during the late spring or early summer. Stream flow varies strongly throughout the year because of seasonal cycles of precipitation, snowpack, temperature, and groundwater. Changes in the temperature and precipitation affect the timing and volume of stream-flow. The stream-flow consists of contributions from meltwater of snow and ice and from runoff of rainfall. Therefore, it has low flow in winter, high flow during the spring and early summer as the snowpack melts, and less flows during the late summer. Because of the warming of the current climate change, hydrology processes of the Kelan River have undergone marked changes, as evidenced by the shift of the maximum flood peak discharge from May to June     

气候变暖对云南烤烟生产影响的初步分析

通过对云南6个烤烟种植区35 a来烤烟大田生长期气温资料的初步分析发现:云南省6个烤烟生产区烤烟大田生长季平均气温呈明显升高趋势,热量条件有较明显的改善;各烟区烤烟成熟—采烤期气候变暖趋势一致性好、增温最突出、增幅最大,增温幅度达到了0.0155~0.0356℃/a,这在一定程度上缓和了云南省烤烟生产过程中烤烟生长中、后期高温不足这一制约云南烤烟品质提高的气候瓶颈问题,对提高云南省烟叶品质有十分重要的促进作用。     

Emission of methane and nitrous oxides from agricultural soils and related global warming potentials of Murshidabad District,West Bengal

Agricultural activities emit substantial amounts of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxides (N2O), the two important greenhouse gases (GHG) with high global warming potentials (GWP). So far, many studies have already been carried out at national and state level, but lack micro‐level (district or block‐level) inventory in India. The present study sheds light on the flux of CH4 and N2O (from all possible sources) from agricultural soil of various blocks in the Murshidabad district, based on the inventory prepared, using the IPCC methodology, with adjusted emission factors and coefficients appropriate for the local level. The economy of the Murshidabad district almost completely rests on agriculture as more than 80 per cent of the population is directly or indirectly dependent on it for their livelihood. Paddy is the dominating crop, cultivated on more than 60 per cent of the gross cropped area. The present work is based on the review of various literature and reports collected from respective state government offices and websites. Results show that CH4 and N2O emission from the agricultural fields are 126.405 Gg and 0.652 Gg respectively for the year 2011?12 with a large scale spatial variation (block‐level) within the district.     

中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应

1998-2012年出现的全球变暖停滞（global warming hiatus）现象,近年来受到各界的广泛关注。基于中国622个气象站的气温数据,研究了全国及三大自然区气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应。结果表明：① 1998-2012年间,中国气温变化率为-0.221 ℃/10 a,较1960-1998年增温率下降0.427 ℃/10 a,存在同全球变暖停滞类似的增温减缓现象,且减缓程度更明显,其中冬季对中国增温减缓的贡献最大,贡献率为74.13%,夏季最小;② 中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应存在显著的区域差异,从不同自然区看,1998-2012年东部季风区和西北干旱区降温显著,其中东部季风区为中国最强降温区,为全国增温减缓贡献了53.79%,并且具有显著的季节依赖性,减缓期冬季气温下降了0.896 ℃/10 a,而夏季上升了0.134 ℃/10 a。青藏高寒区1998-2012年增温率达0.204 ℃/10 a,对全球变暖停滞的响应并不显著;③ 中国增温减缓可能受太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）负相位、太阳黑子数与太阳总辐照减小等因素的影响;④ 1998-2012年中国虽出现增温减缓现象,但2012年之后气温快速升高,且从周期变化看,未来几年可能持续升温。     

1991—1992年ENSO事件的特征

根据美国国家海洋大气局气候分析中心（ＣＡＣ）和中国气象局气候监测公报所提供的海－气资料，综合分析了１９９１－１９９２年ＥＮＳＯ事件的形成、发展过程。这次ＥＮＳＯ事件的主要特点是：①在ＥＮＳＯ事件爆发前一年内热带太平洋海气特性频频呈现异常，暖水堆积在赤道中太平洋（５°Ｎ－５°Ｓ，１６０°Ｅ－１６０°Ｗ）约１２个月，然后自西向东传输，爆发１９９１－１９９２年ＥＮＳＯ事件。②对ＥＮＳＯ事件作出响应的西太     

Poleward expansion of the hadley circulation in CMIP5 simulations

Observational analyses have demonstrated that the Hadley circulation has expanded poleward in recent decades. Important issues are what caused the widening of the Hadley circulation and whether the observed widening is related to anthropogenic forcing. In the present study, we use currently available simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) to analyze changes in the width of the Hadley circulation. It is found that CMIP5 historical simulations with greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing generate a total widening of ～0.15o0.06o in latitude (10 yr)-1 for the period 1979--2005, and the widening in CMIP5 historical simulations with all forcings is ～0.17o0.06o per decade. Similar to that in CMIP3, the simulated poleward expansion in CMIP5 is much weaker than the observational reanalyses. In CMIP5 projection simulations for the 21st century, magnitudes of widening of the Hadley circulation increase with radiative forcing. For the extreme projected radiative forcing of RCP8.5, the total annual-mean widening of the Hadley circulation is ～0.27o0.04o(10 yr)-1 in the 21st century. Although CMIP5 underestimates observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, the results of this study suggest that the observed trends in the width of the Hadley circulation are caused by anthropogenic forcing and that increasing GHGs play an important role in the observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, in addition to other forcings emphasized in previous studies.     

CO2浓度渐增对气温影响的敏感性试验

使用辐射对流模式，研究了中纬度冬季气温对于ＣＯ２浓度变化的敏感性。结果表明：气温变幅随ＣＯ２浓度渐增呈现先快后慢的非线性特征；气温变幅具有一定的稳定性。     

塔里木河流域冰川洪水对气候变暖的响应

In past 50 years, the air temperature fluctuation was raising trend in Tarim River Basin. The annual mean temperature has increased by 0.3℃ in the whole Tarim River Basin, and by 0.6℃ in the mountain areas. With global warming, the frequency of unstable and extreme climatic events increased, glaciers retreating accelerated and snow meltwater increased have resulted in the more frequency of snow-ice disasters such as glacier debrisflow and glacier flash flood etc. Since 1980s, in the process of intense climate warming, glaciers melting intensified, ice temperature rose and glaciers flows accelerated, and lead to more glacial lakes and extending water storage capacity and stronger glacial lake outburst floods occurrence. It is proposed that the monitoring and evaluating of the impact of climate change on water resources and floods should be enhanced.     

天山乌鲁木齐河源１号冰川消融对气候变化的响应

目前气候变暖导致的冰川退缩,引起了全世界的广泛关注。 以新疆天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川为例,根据1958年以来的观测资料,研究了冰川消融对气候变化的响应。结果表明,近50 a来冰川在表面粒雪特征、成冰带、冰川温度、面积、厚度及末端位置等方面发生了显著变化,而这些变化均与气温的升高有着密切的联系;20世纪80年代以来的快速升温,使冰川的退缩出现了加速趋势,冰川融水径流量也呈加速增大趋势。