热带气旋“碧利斯”与南海季风相互作用的强水汽特征数值研究

强热带风暴碧利斯(0604)登陆后其低压环流较长时间地维持,并与南海季风相互作用,造成湖南省东南部发生历史罕见的特大致洪暴雨。文中应用多种常规、非常规细网格观测资料及NECP再分析资料,结合暴雨中尺度数值预报模式AREM对该暴雨过程的强水汽场特征进行了数值模拟和诊断分析,并设计水汽敏感性试验,进一步揭示造成湘东南特大暴雨的水汽通道和水汽来源。结果表明:碧利斯低压环流南侧的西南气流对湘东南暴雨区起到了主要水汽输送作用,且随着碧利斯逆时针旋转,水汽沿着环流中心东侧的强风速带夹卷到环流北侧,并通过增强的东北风源源不断地输送至湘东南。这南北两支主要水汽通道在湘东南长时间交汇,形成了湘东南暴雨区深厚的湿层和强水汽辐合,对碧利斯低压环流较长时间的维持及对湘东南特大暴雨的形成和发展有重要的作用。     

江苏省公路网络复杂性分析

利用美国研制的WRF-Var同化系统以及中国的云迹风资料,对2008年6月10日长江流域的一次暴雨过程做了三维和四维变分同化试验。试验结果表明：上述两种方案均能提高模式对大到暴雨预报的准确率,特别是四维方案在提高大暴雨的准确率方面表现更好,这是降水预报的重要方面;两个同化试验均能在一定程度上改善对要素场的预报,使用四维同化方案能够更有效地调整初始场、降低各要素场的预报误差。诊断结果表明：此次大暴雨过程是在高空低槽和低层切变线的共同作用下发生的,并有高、低空急流与之配合,具有较好的动力条件;低空的西南急流,不但为产生暴雨提供了所需的水汽输送,也为造成暴雨强对流所需的位势不稳定提供了必要的能量。     

1955—2007年拉萨市雨季夜雨率变化特征

利用1955—2007年拉萨市逐日降水和气温地面观测资料,分析了拉萨市雨季（5—9月）夜雨率变化特征。结果表明：拉萨市整个雨季日夜雨率变化是比较稳定的,近50多年来基本没有发生明显的年代际变化。夜雨率与日降水量有显著关联,当日降水量在25 mm以下时,夜雨率随降水量增加而增大,当日降水量〈1 mm时夜雨率最小为75.2%,当日降水量为25 mm时,夜雨率达到最大值93.4%;夜雨率与日温差存在显著的负相关;拉萨多夜雨与地形有关,高夜雨率既有有利的一面,也会带来一些负面影响。因此,深入探讨夜雨率是制定有效防御气象灾害对策的重要依据。     

北京一次冬季回流暴雪天气过程的数值分析

回流天气是华北地区冬、春、秋季节产生降雨（雪）的主要天气类型,预报员常常因对回流天气系统结构特征认识不足和诊断失误而导致预报的失败,是降雨（雪）预报的难点和重点。利用北京地区高分辨率快速循环同化中尺度数值预报系统（BJ-RUC）对2010年1月2—3日一次典型的回流暴雪天气过程进行模拟,分析数值模式的模拟能力,研究各层主要影响系统结构特征及形成暴雪的关键性条件,探讨典型回流暴雪天气过程的形成机理。主要结论为：数值模式对此次暴雪过程的近地面回流冷空气、中低层低值系统及变化特征、主要降雪时段和降雪量模拟效果较好,对降雪落区的模拟存在一定偏差。低层回流偏东风遇到地形后引起垂直运动主要在低层800 hPa以下,所产生的降雪量不大,而其与上游850～700 hPa低涡系统发展东移其前部的上升运动汇合所形成的大范围、深厚、强烈的上升运动是产生明显降雪的关键性条件。上游低涡系统前部西南暖湿气流相对应的大湿度区移近是产生较强降雪的重要条件。持续的低层回流冷空气湿度较大,对于低层大气起到水汽输送的作用。回流冷空气使低层大气维持长时间的水汽输送并与其上层东移的大湿度区相结合,增加湿层厚度,有利于降雪持续而形成较强降雪。降雪开始时间和降雪强度的变化与对流层中下转偏南风的时间和偏南风风速增大有关。     

Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for flood forecasting: evaluating different methodologies for modelling rainfall spatial correlation (or dependence)

Rainfall threshold (RT) method is one of the evolving flood forecasting approaches. When the cumulative rainfall depth for a given initial soil moisture condition intersects the threshold rainfall curve, the peak discharge is expected to be equal or greater than the threshold discharge for flooding at the target site. Besides the total rainfall depth, spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall impacts the flood peak discharge and the time to peak. To revisit a previous study conducted by the authors, in which spatially independent rainfall pattern was assumed, the spatial distribution of rainfall was simulated following a Monte Carlo approach. The structure of the spatial dependence among sub‐watersheds' rainfalls was taken into account under three different scenarios, namely independent, bivariate copula (2copula) and multivariate Gaussian copula (MGC). For each set of generated random dimensionless rainfalls, the probabilistic RT curves were derived for dry moisture condition. Results were evaluated with both historical and simulated events. For the simulated events, threshold curves were assessed by means of categorical statistics, such as hit rate, false rate and critical success index (CSI). Results revealed that the best performance based on the CSI criterion corresponded to 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios as well as 90% curve in the independent scenario. The recognition of 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios is in agreement with our expectations that the mean probable curve should have the best performance. Moreover, the proposed inclusion of spatially dependent rainfall scenario improved the performance of RT curves by about 25% in comparison with the presumed spatially uniform rainfall scenario. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of subsurface rock fragments on runoff and interrill soil loss from cultivated soils

Field and laboratory studies have indicated that rock fragments in the topsoil may have a large impact on soil properties, soil quality, hydraulic, hydrological and erosion processes. In most studies, the rock fragments investigated still remain visible at the soil surface and only properties of these visible rock fragments are used for predicting runoff and soil loss. However, there are indications that rock fragments completely incorporated in the topsoil could also significantly influence the percolation and water distribution in stony soils and therefore, also infiltration, runoff and soil loss rates. Therefore, in this study interrill laboratory experiments with simulated rainfall for 60 min were conducted to assess the influence of subsurface rock fragments incorporated in a disturbed silt loam soil at different depths below the soil surface (i.e. 0.001, 0.01, 0.05 and 0.10 m), on infiltration, surface runoff and interrill erosion processes for small and large rock fragment sizes (i.e. mean diameter 0.04 and 0.20 m, respectively). Although only small differences in infiltration rate and runoff volume are observed between the soil without rock fragments (control) and the one with subsurface rock fragments, considerable differences in total interrill soil loss are observed between the control treatment and both contrasting rock fragments sizes. This is explained by a rapid increase in soil moisture in the areas above the rock fragments and therefore a decrease in topsoil cohesion compared with the control soil profile. The observed differences in runoff volume and interrill soil loss between the control plots and those with subsurface rock fragments is largest after a cumulative rainfall (P_cum) of 11 mm and progressively decreases with increasing P_cum. The results highlight the impacts and complexity of subsurface rock fragments on the production of runoff volume and soil loss and requires their inclusion in process‐based runoff and erosion models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一次东风波暴雨过程诊断分析

利用常规气象资料和NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,结合自动站加密资料对2009年9月29日20:00至10月1日20:00发生在浙江东部沿海的一次东风波暴雨过程进行了分析.结果发现:0916号台风"凯萨娜"外围环流为此次东风波的形成提供了扰动作用,副热带高压的加强使得低层形成了明显的东南急流,为暴雨或强降水的发生提供了...     

2010年浙南地区一次暴雨过程诊断分析

利用常规观测资料、中尺度自动站加密资料、多普勒雷达资料和NCEP1°×1°再兮析资料．对2010年5周8曲日发生在浙南的一次暴雨过程进行了诊断分析,结果发现：此次暴雨是在横槽转竖的大背景下,西风槽和高原槽东移合并加强,并在东移过程中与低层切变共同作用造成的;低空急流的形成在水汽的输送和聚集过程中发挥了重要作用;暴雨过程...     

南宁市蔗糖行业人工增雨服务效益调查评估

分析了南宁市种植甘蔗的气候适应性,以及降雨量与甘蔗生长、蔗茎产量及含糖量的关系,并对比分析了为南宁糖业股份有限公司所属蔗区实施人工增雨前后的甘蔗产量及蔗糖分,认为蔗糖分前后变化不大,但实施人工增雨后甘蔗产量有较显著提高,从而能获得令人满意的经济效益;在此基础上提出了做好人工增雨工作的改进思路。     

The Possible Mechanism of a Type of Vortex Heavy Rainfall during the Pre-Rainy Season in South China

In this paper,NCEP reanalysis data,intensive observation data collected from field experiment,model simulation data,and topographic trial data are fully analyzed to study a severe heavy rainfall event during 5 6 June 2008 in South China.Unlike most warm region rainfall cases,this one is associated with an obvious vortex system,which draws in water vapor and energy from the southwest monsoon surges ahead of a low trough above the Bengal Bay (BLT,Bengal Low Trough).At the lower troposphere,three currents,especially the southwest current and the east current,converge into the southeast of the vortex.Thus,the distributions of strong vorticity,water vapor,and ascending motion cause frequently occurrence and growth of convection there.The possible reasons for this rainfall event are summarized as a conceptual model.