近五十年中国西北地区夏季降水场变化特征及影响因素分析

利用中国气象局信息中心提供的西北地区1951～2005年夏季月平均资料集和1958～2002年ERA40资料, 分析近五十年来西北地区夏季降水场的主要变化特征, 及与之相关的大尺度水汽输送和环流场变化, 讨论大尺度环流指数如涛动、 极涡、 赤道太平洋Niño3.4区海温与西北地区夏季降水的相关性。结果表明, 近五十年西北西部尤其是南疆的降水增多, 与西伯利亚 (50°N～60°N, 40°E～70°E) 上空位势高度增加和伊朗高原 (35°N～42.5°N, 60°E～75°E) 上空位势高度减少有很大关系。1987年后, 西北西侧水汽辐合也是该区降水增多的一个重要因素。西北东部降水受海温影响大。此外, 北大西洋涛动、 极涡面积可以反映近几十年来西北降水西增东减的年际波动。极涡面积大小与西北降水第一模态相关性尤其突出, 可以作为考察西北降水变化的一个重要指标。     

低涡过程对流云和降水结构特征及其环境条件分析

利用遥感及加密观测资料详细分析了2005年6月25～26日一次低涡过程对流云和降水的结构特征,并利用NCEP再分析资料以及实况风场资料分析了其形成的有利条件。分析表明：此次低涡过程中出现的中尺度对流云团（MCC）经历了十几小时的发展演变,云顶亮温低达-90℃,导致了局地暴雨出现,对流云和降水的分布有很好的对应但同时具有显著的时空分布不均匀性。对流云内部高空存在冰晶的大值区,云水含量也比周围环境丰富,冰晶下落过程中通过碰粘其它冰晶、碰冻云水导致了云内的可降水增多,播撒-供应机制起主要作用。而对流降水的“双峰“廓线结构表明暖雨过程非常强。此次过程有形成强对流非常有利的环境：强西南低空急流水汽输送和水汽辐合与高空偏西风急流的相互作用为对流云团和强降水的形成提供水汽和不稳定条件;低层不稳定区域上强垂直上升运动则提供了不可缺少的动力条件;中尺度辐合系统的形成是此次强对流产生的直接原因。     

东北冷涡引发的局地暴雨数值模拟研究

利用CDAS-NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料,应用Penn State/NCAR的高分辨率中尺度模式MM5V3-7,成功模拟出2005年7月9—12日东北冷涡诱发的一次连续雷雨过程,重点分析了7月9日造成沈阳及周边地区的一次局地暴雨过程,并对其中的一个连续发展的中β尺度对流系统的演变、中尺度结构特点进行了研究。结果表明：冷涡总是以水平旋转的中高层的干冷空气堆作为其结构特点。在冷涡的东南侧高空干冷堆的边缘区域,轨迹呈直立状,从行星边界层向上穿越整个对流层,显示出该地区存在强对流。干冷堆的边缘区域下方的低层暖湿输送是冷涡局地强对流发展的关键。局地对流发展时,出现干冷堆的边缘区域的S_e上下层接近或者打通现象。     

南支气流对高原低涡移出高原影响的数值试验

本文在对2000年以来移出青藏高原后活动时间长的高原低涡活动过程,进行对流层中层南支气流对高原低涡移出高原的影响的观测事实分析基础上,通过对2001年6月1～5日索县低涡移出高原活动的数值模拟和试验分析,得出了在高原低涡以南的南支气流减弱或者是没有南风或者是没有南风脉动的影响,会使低涡移出高原的速度减慢,移出高原12小时后减弱消失。低涡以南的南支气流起到了向低涡区输送水汽通量、正涡度平流的作用,提供利于低涡活动持续的条件。从而丰富了高原低涡东移的认识,为高原低涡洪涝暴雨的预报提供了科学依据。     

2008年T213与德国降水数值预报产品对比检验

为了解各种数值预报的误差特点,更好地在预报过程中选择数值预报产品作为参考依据,将中国国家气象中心的T213降水预报与德国降水预报分别进行晴雨预报检验,对2008年5—8月东北地区降水资料进行对比分析。结果表明：两种模式24-120h预报正确率为60％-70％,随着预报时效的增加,正确率呈下降趋势,德国降水预报的正确率高于T213,两种预报漏报率均明显小于空报率,T213漏报率较低,为5％左右,德国降水预报空报率较低,为20％左右。对2008年4-6月出现东北冷涡过程的两种模式降水预报进行对比分析,发现德国降水预报正确率明显高于T213预报,对冷涡降水预报有一定的指示意义。     

Mesoscale Analysis of a Heavy Rainfall Event Along the Huaihe River Valley During 8-9 July 2007

During 8-9 July 2007,several successively developed rainstorms along the Meiyu front produced heavy rainfall in the Huaihe River Valley,which led to the most catastrophic flooding in this region since 1954.Through mesoscale analysis of both conventional and intensive observations from upper air and surface stations,automatic weather stations,Doppler radars,and the FY-2C satellite,the current study examines the developing style and environmental conditions of the mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)that led to the development of the rainstorms.Our analysis showed that this event went through three phases.The first phase of the heavy rainfall(Phase Ⅰ)was caused by a meso-α-scale wind shear in the lower troposphere during 0200-1700 BT(Beijing Time)8 July.Phase Ⅱ was characterized by a reduction in rain rate and the formation of a low-level vortex between 1700 BT 8 and 0200 BT 9 July.In Phase Ⅲ,the well-organized mature meso-α-scale low-level vortex brought about intensified rains during 0200-0800 BT 9 July.Satellite and raclar observations showed a backward development of MCSs(new convective cells were generated at the back of the system)in PhaseⅡ,a forward development in Phase Ⅲ,and a spiral organization of the convective lines in Phase Ⅱ.The heavy rainstorm systems were initiated continuously along a surface mesoscale dew-point front with a horizontal scale of～300 km(as part of the Meiyu front)in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River Valley near Fuyang City,Anhui Province and then gradually decayed in the middle and lower reaches.It is hypothesized that lifting by strong low-level convergence is sufficient to trigger convection in the high CAPE(convective available potential energy)environment.     

Mesoscale Vortex Generation and Merging Process： A Case Study Associated with a Post-Landfall Tropical Depression

An observational analysis of satellite blackbody temperature (TBB) data and radar images suggests that the mesoscale vortex generation and merging process appeared to be essential for a tropical-depression-related heavy rain event in Shanghai, China. A numerical simulation reproduced the observed mesoscale vortex generation and merging process and the corresponding rain pattern, and then the model outputs were used to study the related dynamics through diagnosing the potential vorticity (PV) equation. The t...     

“珍珠”（0601）异常急翘路径和内核结构变化的诊断分析及数值研究

使用FY2卫星TBB资料、NCEP最终分析资料(1°×1°)和中尺度模式WRF,对0601号强台风"珍珠"的"急翘"异常转向路径和内核结构变化进行诊断分析和数值模拟。结果表明:"珍珠"移向变化与环境引导气流和位涡倾向1波分量正异常有关,"急翘"前12小时,环境引导气流向北偏转,位涡倾向1波分量正异常对应着"珍珠"移动方向变化;内核非对称结构发展与环境风垂直切变演变有关,垂直切变使得涡旋倾斜,涡旋倾斜方向出现较强的上升运动,导致"珍珠"内核偏南象限对流活动较强。     

高原涡诱生西南涡特大暴雨成因的个例研究

利用多途径探测与再分析资料,通过诊断分析、数值模拟和敏感性试验,对2008年7月20～21日一次高原涡东移诱生西南涡并引发川中特大暴雨的天气过程进行了初步分析,探讨了西南涡特大暴雨发生的中尺度环境场特征,特殊地形和非绝热物理过程在高原涡东移诱生西南涡特大暴雨中的作用。结果表明,高原涡形成后沿高原东北侧下滑,在四川盆地诱生出西南涡,川中特大暴雨在西南涡形成过程中由强中尺度对流系统(MCSs)的活动造成。高原涡东移诱生的低层偏东气流在川西高原东侧地形的动力强迫抬升作用下,释放对流有效位能激发出MCSs产生强降水,降水凝结潜热加热反馈驱动西南涡快速发展。地形的动力作用仅能形成浅薄的西南涡,降水凝结潜热的加入才能使西南涡充分发展。高原涡的发展主要受地面热通量影响,它的发展与否在很大程度上决定西南涡能否形成。盆地周边高大山脉对西南涡的位置分别有不同程度的影响,而盆地周边高大山脉上叠加的中小尺度地形对西南涡和暴雨带的整体位置影响不大,在一定程度上影响暴雨的落区。     

Satellite and ground observations for large-scale air pollution transport in the Yellow Sea region

Large-scale air pollution transport (LSAPT) in the Yellow Sea region and their inflow onto the Korean Peninsula were observed through satellite images and ground measurements. LSAPT includes regional continental air-masses saturated with pollutants originating from China and subsequently landing on or passing through the Korean Peninsula. It is also possible to identify the distribution and transport patterns of LSAPT over the Yellow Sea. The ground concentrations for PM10, PM2.5 and CO measured at Cheongwon, located in the centre of south Korea, were compared with NOAA satellite images. Notably, the episodes observed of the LSAPT show a PM2.5 to PM10 ratio of 74% of the daily maximum concentrations. However, cases of duststorms were clearly distinguished by much higher PM10 concentrations and a ratio of 30% of PM2.5 to PM10 for daily maximum concentrations. For the episode on January 27, 2006, the inflow of a regionally polluted continental air-mass into the central and southwestern regions of the Korean Peninsula was observed sequentially at various ground observatories as well as by satellite. The north airflow dissipated the clouds over Mt. Halla on Jeju Island and further downwind, reducing air pollution and creating a von Kármán vortex.