盛夏副高脊线异常变化对我国气温影响及海气背景分析

利用1951—2006年全国160站盛夏（7—8月）气温资料、北半球500hPa高度场和北太平洋海温场资料,分析了盛夏西太平洋副高脊线位置异常变化对我国气温的影响及其与500hPa大气环流和北太平洋海温的关系,结果发现：盛夏副高脊线异常偏北年主要集中出现在上世纪60年代和90年代,副高脊线异常偏南年则主要集中出现在上世纪80年代;盛夏副高脊线位置与长江流域及其以北至黄河中下游以南的我国中东部广大地区气温存在着很好的正相关关系;盛夏副高脊线位置异常变化与东亚中纬度500hPa上空西风环流强弱变化密切相关,前期3月白令海至阿拉斯加地区500hPa高度场异常变化对盛夏副高脊线位置变动有着较好的指示性,前期北太平洋海温距平分布型,尤其是前期3月北亚热带海区关键区海温、加利福尼亚海区关键区海温和关键区综合海温指数对盛夏副高脊线位置异常变化具有很好的指示意义。     

河西走廊风能时空特征

利用河西走廊地区1970-2004年风速气候资料和2004年9月-2005年8月周年风塔精细资料,采用气候订正和即时风速订正,得到接近自然的风速,依此研究了该区域近地面70 m层内风能分布。结果表明:河西走廊区域风速变幅较小、气候变化趋势较稳定;有效风速(≥3 m/s)时数在6 000 h/a,10 m高度风能大多在150 w/m2以上,风能随高度线形增长(在70 m高度层内),平均每升高10 m风能增加28 w/m2;10~70 m层内总风能年储量相当丰富,普遍在1.5×1016kWh/m2(千瓦时/平方米)以上,潜在年产值达千万亿元。河西走廊风能存在明显周日和月季变化,风能和有效风速时数存在空间差异,其时空差异与河西走廊独特的戈壁下垫面关系密切。     

人居环境气候舒适度对城市创新的影响分析

以中国创新水平较高的91个地级及以上城市为研究对象,探讨人居环境气候舒适度对城市创新的影响程度。以城市发明专利申请数代表城市创新水平,采用温湿指数和风效指数的组合模型,参照相应的分级标准计算各城市年气候舒适期,分析城市人居环境气候舒适度与城市创新的关系。结果表明:气候舒适期每增加1%,发明专利申请数仅平均增加0.012%,相对于GDP、R&D人员全时当量、R&D经费等影响城市创新的关键因素,城市人居环境气候舒适度对城市创新有一定影响,但影响并不十分显著。因此,创新政策的着眼点在于关注城市创新投入、人力资本、经济规模等影响城市创新的关键因素。在此基础上,创新布局也应考虑人居环境气候舒适度因素。     

黄河中游一次致洪暴雨过程的形成机理

利用常规观测资料、NCEP再分析资料等,对黄河中游2013年7月21-22日的致洪暴雨过程的形成机理进行分析。结果发现:1)地面辐合线的形成和维持是本次过程降水强度大和降水集中的主要原因。中尺度雨团和地面中尺度辐合线相对应,地面中尺度辐合线的形成和冷空气扩散补充相对应。第一次冷空气扩散,促使长武站附近地面中尺度辐合线的形成和维持;第二次冷空气补充,促使北洛河流域、无定河流域的地面中尺度辐合线形成并维持。2)暴雨过程发生前,其上空存在干暖盖的结构特征,是能量积累及位势不稳定层结结构建立的关键;暴雨发生过程中干空气侵入对中尺度对流云团起激发作用。3)暴雨、大暴雨发生过程中水汽的垂直输送明显,暴雨区上空1000-100 h Pa相对湿度均在90%以上。     

新疆西克尔地区下奥陶统鹰山组岩溶分带性研究

塔里木盆地岩溶缝洞型储层作为重要的油气储层备受关注,而目前预测此类型储层的方法较有限。在新疆伽什县西克尔野外露头区地表岩溶现象丰富,志留系地层以填平补齐的方式充填在一系列的溶沟和溶槽中,部分洼地中还有志留系地层残留,表明该区发育加里东中期岩溶。在本区岩溶古地貌的基础上,基于排泄基准面的分析,划分出3级岩溶台面并对应发育3期岩溶。据现代地貌学和岩溶学理论,按照水动力条件的不同并结合本区岩溶发育特征,运用岩溶旋回的观点将第二期岩溶剖面分为表层岩溶带、垂直渗滤带和水平潜流带,认识到西克尔地区古岩溶地下水发育规律及洞穴发育程度。构造运动是垂向岩溶分带性的主控因素;因此,在大的构造背景的前提下,可以有效地预测巴楚地区的缝洞型储层。     

Air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean during several contrasting monsoon seasons

Monthly mean anomaly fields of various parameters like sea surface temperature, air temperature, wind stress, effective radiation at the surface, heat gain over the ocean and the total heat loss between a good and bad monsoon composite and the evaporation rates over the Arabian Sea and southern hemisphere have been studied over the tropical Indian Ocean. The mean rates of evaporation on a seasonal scale over the Arabian Sea during a good and bad monsoon composites were equal (about 2·48 × 10¹⁰ tons/day). The evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere were greater during all the months. The mean evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere on a seasonal scale for the good and bad monsoon composites were 4·4 × 10¹⁰ and 4·6 × 10¹⁰ tons/day respectively. The maximum evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere were observed in August. The anomalies of wind stress, effective radiation at the surface and the heat gain over the ocean also exhibit large variations in August, as compared to other monsoon months.     

基于MODE对模式预报强风风场的检验分析

基于专业气象服务领域十分关注的模式强风预报性能的客观检验和致灾性强风预警服务效果的合理性判别问题,利用一次强风过程对电网专业气象预警服务效果的检验示范,探讨基于目标(面向对象)的诊断检验方法(Method for ObjectBased Diagnostic Evaluation,MODE)对强风事件检验的适用性。通过对强风空间检验的各个关键参数的选择确定、匹配分析,发现:(1)MODE检验的卷积半径、诊断量权重和匹配阈值等参数的选择,将影响检验目标的适度聚焦和误差表达的客观性,因此需要综合考虑预报和实况场的水平分辨率、用户对该类强天气预报误差的空间和时间冗余度等;(2)MODE检验可较好地量化给出模式预报的整体效果,包括:强风落区的范围大小和位置偏差、强风过程的时间相位差等,从而可量化判别出模式在各个时刻的空报和漏报区域以及对强风过程移动速度和生命周期长度的预报性能。     

Seasonal and Monthly Variation of Vertical Structure of Temperature,Salinity and Heat Flux of the Bay of Bengal

Seasonal and monthly variations of heat flux have been investigated in this study using the Modular Ocean Model of version 3 (MOM 3) simulations and 52 years Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) products. These variations of the heat flux in different boxes of the Bay of Bengal (BOB) in different depths show the different behavior of the boxes. It is seen that the model and SODA results are comparable. The basin shows north-south variation in the surface from winter to spring whereas there is east-west variation in the mixed layer throughout the year except winter. The remote effect caused by warm water penetration from Pacific Ocean through the Strait of Malacca and coastal Kelvin waves keeps the basin warm most of the year. This article addresses the mechanisms of the seasonal variation of the vertical structure of the temperature and heat flux components.     

High kinetic energy density jets in the Earth’s magnetosheath: A case study

We study several high kinetic energy density jets observed during a traversal of the dayside magnetosheath by the Cluster spacecraft on March 17, 2001, at various distances from the magnetopause, generally characterised by anomalously high values of the local magnetosonic Mach number. We concentrate on two jets observed just outside the magnetopause, the first almost parallel to the GSM x axis and the second directed northward-tailward along the nominal magnetopause surface. We present evidence that none of them can be ascribed to magnetic reconnection at the magnetopause and show that the magnetopause is severely deformed by the jets, so that its local normal forms an angle of 97° with the quiet time magnetopause normal. On these grounds, we suggest that the indentation of the magnetopause is caused by an anti-sunward jet ramming into the magnetopause slightly equatorward of the northern cusp and that the northward-tailward jet is the result of its reflection at the deformed magnetopause. Finally, we briefly discuss our results by comparing them with past studies of events which in some way recall the one analysed herein.     

煤层气直井产气曲线特征及其与储层条件匹配性

煤层气产气曲线类型与地质条件的匹配与否直接影响产气效果。以沁水盆地柿庄南区块排采4 a以上的直井为研究对象,在产气曲线类型划分基础上,分析不同产气曲线特征,进一步分析产气曲线与储层参数的匹配性。结果表明：研究区产气曲线可划分为单峰快速上升、单峰稳定上升、双峰后低和双峰后高4种类型。产气曲线所表现出的特征受控于储层原始渗透率,储层动力及压裂效果。单峰快速上升型适用于含气量大于12 m³/d、临储比大于0.4和渗透率大于0.1×10^-3 μm²的储层,该种曲线容易造成产气量的骤降;单峰稳定上升型适用的储层条件广泛,与储层参数匹配性较高;双峰后低型产气效果整体不佳,与储层参数的匹配性差;双峰后高型适用于压裂效果较好的井、对储层原始参数要求较低,其后峰产气量的增加速率影响整体的排采效果。基于上述分析,将储层划分为七种类型,对研究区及其相邻区块实施\