In this paper, a statistical analysis on wind and wave buoy measurements and wind and wave model forecasts obtained during a two-year period (1999-2001) is presented with reference to four characteristic near-shore sites of the Aegean Sea. The measurements are a main product of the "POSEIDON" system aiming at the monitoring and forecasting of the state of the Greek seas, operated by the National Centre for Marine Research (NCMR). Although the two-year period is rather short for a thorough analysis of the local wind and wave climate, yet the obtained results, presented herein for the first time, reveal some interesting features of the corresponding wave and wind characteristics. Comparisons between the measurements and the forecast results are also performed at the locations under consideration. It is found that (i) wind speeds obtained from the POSEIDON weather forecasting system are, in general, in agreement with the measurements, except for high wind speeds which are systematically underestimated, (ii) the WAM model can successfully follow the monthly and over year trend of the evolution of wind and wave characteristics, but face significant problems for efficient sea-state forecasting. Finally, the overall pattern of the wind/wave climate for the entire Aegean Sea as obtained from the models is presented by means of the spatial distribution of the mean annual wind and sea-state intensity. 相似文献
A portable wind tunnel was used to test the contribution of biological and physical elements to overall soil aggregation on a soil dominated by biological soil crusts in south-eastern Australia. After moderate disturbance and simulated wind erosion, 90% of surface aggregates on the loamy soil and 76% on the sandy soil were dominated by biological elements (cryptogams). Lower levels of biological bonding were observed on the severely disturbed treatment. Linear regression indicated a significant positive relationship (r2=0·72) between biological soil crust cover and dry aggregation levels greater than 0·85mm. To maintain sediment transport below an erosion control target of 5gm−1s−1 for a 65kmh−1 wind at 10m height, a crust cover of approximately 20% is required. When a multiple regression model which sequentially fitted biological crust cover and dry aggregation greater than 0·85mm was applied to the data, dry aggregation accounted for more of the variation in sediment transport rate than biological crust cover. These data were used to develop a conceptual model which integrates crust cover and dry aggregation, and provides a useful framework within which to predict the likely impacts of changes in soil crust cover and aggregation. 相似文献
Individual based simulations of population dynamics require the availability of growth models with adequate complexity. For this purpose a simple-to-use model (non-linear multiple regression approach) is presented describing somatic growth and reproduction of Daphnia as a function of time, temperature and food quantity. The model showed a good agreement with published observations of somatic growth (r2 = 0.954, n = 88) and egg production (r2 = 0.898, n = 35). Temperature is the main determinant of initial somatic growth and food concentration is the main determinant of maximal body length and clutch size. An individual based simulation was used to demonstrate the simultaneous effects of food and temperature on the population level. Evidently, both temperature and food supply affected the population growth rate but at food concentrations above approximately 0.4 mg Cl−1Scenedesmus acutus temperature appeared as the main determinant of population growth.
Four simulation examples are given to show the wide applicability of the model: (1) analysis of the correlation between population birth rate and somatic growth rate, (2) contribution of egg development time and delayed somatic growth to temperature-effects on population growth, (3) comparison of population birth rate in simulations with constant vs. decreasing size at maturity with declining food concentrations and (4) costs of diel vertical migration. Due to its plausible behaviour over a broad range of temperature (2–20 °C) and food conditions (0.1–4 mg Cl−1) the model can be used as a module for more detailed simulations of Daphnia population dynamics under realistic environmental conditions. 相似文献