全新世初期气候的数值模拟研究

本文尝试用一个完全耦合的大气-海洋-植被模式(Atmosphere-Ocean-Vegetation General Circulation Model, AOVGCM)模拟全新世初期的地球气候.模拟结果表明,耦合模式成功地再现了全新世初期复杂气候条件下的基本特征,为研究这一时期的气候状况提供了重要的模型支持.就全球平均而言,11ka BP冬季地表气温比现代约低1.6 K,夏季比现代低约0.3 K;大气温度从低层到高层有不同的表现,高层反映了太阳辐射的重要作用,而低层气候对下垫面（如冰川、植被和海洋等）的影响比较敏感.从区域分布来看,11 ka BP冬季大部地区比现在偏干,但热带太平洋和南半球少部地区降水偏多;夏季大部地区比现在偏湿,亚洲和非洲季风偏强,主要的季风区降水偏多.     

断层垂直形变对强远震的响应

利用新型断层形变三维观测系统的垂直向观测结果, 研究了两年以来7.0级以上强远震在非发震断层上的同震响应特征. 结果表明,非发震断层体垂直向同震形变的延迟时间、 同震位移最大振幅、 振动持续时间等特征与地震震级、震中距等之间存在密切联系. 断层体垂直向同震形变延迟时间与震中距线性正相关,发生地震同震形变的响应速度约为5.5km/s,反映了在上层花岗岩地层中面波的传播速度;同震位移最大振幅和震中距的对数、 震级之间具有明显线性关系,震级越大,同震位移的最大振幅越大;地震震级是断层体垂直同震形变振动持续时间的主要影响因素,震级越大,同震形变振动持续时间越长. 根据断层仪观测数据推算得到的断层体垂直向同震形变延迟时间、同震位移最大振幅、振动持续时间的经验计算公式,对于地震同震形变研究具有一定意义.      

巴伦支-喀拉海海温和青藏高原冬季地表气温的年代际联系

基于1961—2017年中国气象局地表气温数据、JRA-55大气再分析数据以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局延伸重建的海温资料,研究了青藏高原冬季地表气温的年代际变化特征及其与海温的可能联系。结果表明：巴伦支-喀拉海冬季海温年代际变化可以激发出向东传播的Rossby波,在西伯利亚对流层高层产生异常的气旋或反气旋性环流,通过影响副极地以及副热带西风急流强度,在青藏高原的南侧产生异常的反气旋或气旋性环流,从而使得青藏高原上空的垂直运动发生变化,导致青藏高原冬季地表气温异常。     

试说中国陆内构造变形和其地球动力学特征

中国陆内构造变形主要始于晚二叠世中国北方进入后海西地台发展时期。印支期末以至喜马拉雅期,随着特提斯洋的关闭,大陆范围也随即向中国南方和青藏地区增生和扩展。中国的陆内构造变形从后海西地台形成的准平原化阶段即已开始。但规模巨大的变形则发生于燕山构造旋回中期和喜马拉雅旋回。陆内构造变形的规模可分两个等级:一是覆盖整个中国大陆的,另一是局部的。前者两次改变了中国构造-地貌的整体面貌;后者则表现为造山、造盆和微陆块纵向或横向的逃逸,以及由此引起的造山或造盆。根据中国陆内构造变形特征及其与区域构造背景演化的关系分析认为,中国陆内构造变形主要是由周边洲级规模板块运动引起的,同时,随着地壳上部构造变形引发的地壳或岩石圈均衡调整,则使地下深处产生相应的构造响应。     

1999年与2003年我国北方地区夏季气温异常原因初探

分析了1999年与2003年我国北方地区夏季气温的变化特点和同期大气环流主要特征。结果表明:中国夏季气温变化有明显的年代际特征,这一特征与亚洲上空大气环流的年代际变化紧密相关,表明我国北方地区夏季气温异常一个很重要的原因或许是缘于气候年代际变化。2003年夏季中高纬环流形势呈两槽两脊的配置,与近十几年气候态分布刚好相反,因而从气候年代际变化的特征来看,2003年为预示年代际气候转型的征兆。     

台风“摩羯”和“利奇马”经渤海强度变化特征分析

利用FY 4水汽云图、NCEP/FNL资料、自动站资料和ERA Interim海温资料,分析入海增强台风“摩羯”（1814）和入海减弱台风“利奇马”（1909）经过渤海强度变化特征。结论如下：台风“摩羯”中心入海增强过程伴随着中高层冷空气侵入,冷空气深入“摩羯”云系中心,台风强度减弱并逐渐消亡。台风“利奇马”入海前冷空气已经侵入台风中心,台风入海后强度减弱,暖心结构变得不对称,低层有清晰的斜压特征。“摩羯”入海前渤海上空为强辐散区,“利奇马”入海前渤海上空为弱辐合场,北上前进方向出现高空辐散有利于台风加强。台风登陆前垂直风切变与台风强度反位相分布,北上后台风垂直风切变与台风强度同位相分布。“摩羯”入海后水汽通道出现断裂,其入海增强更多依赖于热力条件和动力条件。“利奇马”水汽通量和水汽通量散度源于自身环流的贡献。台风“摩羯”入海后潜热加热率激增,“利奇马”低层维持弱潜热加热直至台风消亡。     

2023年秋季我国气候异常特征及成因分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集和中国2400个站的气候观测数据,对2023年秋季我国气候异常特征及其成因进行分析。2023年秋季全国平均气温为1961年以来历史同期最高;全国平均降水量接近常年同期,但空间分布不均且季节内变化明显。秋季欧亚中高纬环流呈“两槽一脊”型,造成我国气温显著偏高;9月呈“两脊一槽”型,巴尔喀什湖低槽活动导致西北地区降水增多;10月呈“两槽一脊”型,导致北方地区偏暖加强;11月呈“西高东低”型,东路冷空气增强,东北地区气温偏低、降水偏多。西太平洋副热带高压总体较常年偏强、偏西,脊线9月异常偏北、10月偏南、11月接近常年。印缅槽9月显著偏强,10—11月接近常年。9月印缅槽偏强与副热带高压异常偏北共同导致了长江中下游以北至黄河下游地区多雨;10—11月东部地区水汽条件整体偏差。9—10月近海台风频繁活动,造成华南地区降水偏多。2023年秋季我国气候受到大气季节内变化的显著作用,热带海温异常的影响不典型。     

Study on Flow Field Around Vertical Breakwater Under Different Overtopping Conditions Based on Numerical Simulation

A numerical wave flume is constructed based on the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations with turbulence closure by a modified k-ε model to study the viscous interactions of waves with vertical breakwaters for different overtopping cases. The governing equations,the turbulence model,boundary conditions,and solution method for the numerical wave flume are introduced briefly. The reliability of the numerical wave flume is examined by comparing the numerical results with the experimental measurement...     

Seasonal evaluation of rainfall estimation by four cumulus parameterization schemes and their sensitivity analysis

Sustainable water resources management require scientifically sound information on precipitation, as it plays a key role in hydrological responses in a catchment. In recent years, mesoscale weather models in conjunction with hydrological models have gained great attention as they can provide high‐resolution downscaled weather variables. Many cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) have been developed and incorporated into three‐dimensional Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model 5 (MM5). This study has performed a comprehensive evaluation of four CPSs (the Anthes–Kuo, Grell, Betts–Miller and Kain–Fritsch93 schemes) to identify how their inclusion influences the mesoscale model's precipitation estimation capabilities. The study has also compared these four CPSs in terms of variability in rainfall estimation at various horizontal and vertical levels. For this purpose, the MM5 was nested down to resolution of 81 km for Domain 1 (domain span 21 × 81 km) and 3 km for Domain 4 (domain span 16 × 3 km), respectively, with vertical resolutions at 23, 40 and 53 vertical levels. The study was carried out at the Brue catchment in Southwest England using both the ERA‐40 reanalysis data and the land‐based observation data. The performances of four CPs were evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the amount of cumulative rainfall in 4 months in 1995 representing the four seasonal months, namely, January (winter), March (spring), July (summer) and October (autumn). It is observed that the Anthes–Kuo scheme has produced inferior precipitation values during spring and autumn seasons while simulations during winter and summer were consistently good. The Betts–Miller scheme has produced some reasonable results, particularly at the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) during winter and summer. The KF2 scheme was the best scheme for the larger‐scale (81 km grid size) domain during winter season at both 23 and 53 vertical levels. This scheme tended to underestimate rainfall for other seasons including the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) in the mesoscale. The Grell scheme was the best scheme in simulating rainfall rates, and was found to be superior to other three schemes with consistently better results in all four seasons and in different domain scales. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Potential Influence of a Developing La Niña on the Sea-Ice Reduction in the Barents–Kara Seas

Abstract

The potential influence of a developing La Niña on Arctic sea-ice annual variability is investigated using both observational data and an atmospheric general circulation model. It is found that during the developing phase of an eastern Pacific (EP) La Niña event in June, July, and August (JJA) and September, October, and November (SON), the sea-ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents–Kara Seas declines more than 15%. The local atmospheric circulation pattern associated with the EP La Niña is characterized as a weak decrease in geopotential height over the Barents–Kara Seas, combined with an anticyclone in the North Atlantic. The corresponding southerly winds push warm waters northward into the key sea-ice reduction region and directly accelerate sea-ice melt. Meanwhile, the abundant moisture contained in the lower troposphere is transported into the Arctic region by winds resulting from the local barotropic structure. The humid atmosphere contributes to both net shortwave and longwave radiation and thus indirectly accelerates the decline in sea ice. Simulations by the European Centre Hamburg Model, version 5.4, are forced by observed sea surface temperature anomalies associated with EP La Niña events. The results of the simulations capture the North Atlantic anticyclone and reproduce the moisture transport, which supports the premise that an EP La Niña plays a crucial role in sea-ice reduction over the Barents–Kara sector from the perspective of atmospheric circulation and net surface heat flux.