Simulation of streamflow with statistically downscaled daily rainfall using a hybrid of wavelet and GAMLSS models

ABSTRACT

A rainfall–streamflow model is proposed, in which a downscaled rainfall series and its wavelet-based decomposed sub-series at optimum lags were used as covariates in GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Model in Location, Scale and Shape). GAMLSS is applied in climate change impact assessment using CMIP5 general climate model to simulate daily streamflow in three sub-catchments of the Onkaparinga catchment, South Australia. The Spearman correlation and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between the observed and median simulated streamflow values were high and comparable for both the calibration and validation periods for each sub-catchment. We show that the GAMLSS has the capability to capture non-stationarity in the rainfall–streamflow process. It was also observed that the use of wavelet-based decomposed rainfall sub-series with optimum lags as covariates in the GAMLSS model captures the underlying physics of the rainfall–streamflow process. The development and application of an empirical rainfall–streamflow model that can be used to assess the impact of catchment-scale climate change on streamflow is demonstrated.     

Climatic variations of general atmospheric circulation, precipitation and river flow of the territory of Kazakhstan

Methods of calculating the basic hydrological characteristics of a water resource assessment, as well as the planning and management of their long-term use are based upon the concept of stationarity of long-term flow fluctuations. However, data of researches by hydrologists and climatologists clearly indicate that there are long-period changes in the characteristics of precipitation and river flow. This article discusses the variations of annual precipitation and river flow in the Ishim River Basin in Kazakhstan, based on the W, C and E classification developed by G.Y. Vangengeim who analyzed the long-term variability of anomalies by the number of days with some form of atmospheric circulation. From this study, the largest anomaly of the macro-circulation processes was revealed, and a comparative analysis of the number of days with various forms of atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies was made. It was demonstrated that the nature of atmospheric circulation depends on the distribution of precipitation; however, precipitation is also highly dependent on local physiographic conditions. The analysis of anomalous precipitation during the maximum number of days of positive anomalies with various forms of atmospheric circulation was also carried out. This study presents some results from the preliminary analysis of annual river flow linked with forms of atmospheric circulation.     

Tameike灌溉池塘农业文化遗产:以大分县国东半岛为例（英文）

本文以于2013年5月被认定为全球重要农业文化遗产(GIAHS)试点的国东半岛为例,探讨了日本tameike灌溉池塘成为农业文化遗产的潜力。"tameike"是这个地区主要用来储存泉水或者短小急流的一种小型池塘。国东的tameike建造与当地的水稻种植和林业发展关系密切。许多现存的灌溉池塘均建于江户时期(1603–1867),直到战后这些池塘都是通过传统农业技术进行管理。然而,随着经济发展,这些灌溉池塘的用途和生态系统功能迅速减少。目前,灌溉池塘的总数只有明治维新前的近三分之一。GIAHS项目试图重新评估这些灌溉池塘的生态系统功能和相关知识体系以振兴当地农业。本文基于文献调查和实地研究,提出合理管理灌溉池塘可以成功使这种资源循环利用的文化恢复生机,而这正是国东地区作为农业文化遗产的意义。     

Vertical velocity distributions through and above submerged,flexible vegetation

Abstract

A one-dimensional steady-state model was constructed and used to study vertical profiles of longitudinalvelocities in open channel flows through, and above, submerged vegetation. The eddy viscosity was evaluated by using the analogue of the mixing length theory. The model of water velocity profiles takes into account the surface roughness of the channel bottom and the drag exerted by submerged flexible stems. The verification of the calculated velocity profiles was carried out based on data obtained in laboratory experiments. The proportionality coefficients for the analogue of the mixing length formulae in both layers—within homogenous flexible stems and above them—were determined.     

宁波市似大地水准面数字高程基准建设及精度检验

基于2000国家大地坐标系和1985国家高程基准,阐述了在NBCORS和宁波市基本高程控制网的三维框架下组织实施宁波市似大地水准面数字高程基准建设的方法,并进行了似大地水准面的正确性和实用性精度检验以及精度区域划分。     

ENSO对MJO传播特征演变的影响

利用TRMM降水和ERA-Interim温度、比湿、环流场等再分析资料, 探讨了在1998-2018年冬季年际尺度海温变化对MJO的强度、结构和传播特征的影响。主要结论如下: 通过一种追踪MJO的方法在研究时间范围内共可挑选出50个MJO事件, 其中有14个MJO事件发生在El Ni?o期间, 25个发生在La Ni?a期间, 11个发生在ENSO正常年。El Ni?o年MJO会传播至更远的中东太平洋附近, 而La Ni?a年MJO事件趋于在西太平洋地区消亡, 这主要与东太平洋地区持续的季节内尺度的经向水汽输送有关。此外, 在印度洋和太平洋地区, El Ni?o年的MJO活动更强, 而在海洋性大陆附近, La Ni?a年的MJO活动略强一些。ENSO对MJO强度的影响主要通过影响MJO对流中心东侧水汽的输送, 水汽在异常东风气流的输送下穿过对流中心东边界进入对流中心, 进而造成MJO活动强度的差异。      

影响华南汛期持续性强降水年际变化的大气环流和海温异常

利用1961—2017年中国地面观测站日降水资料、全球大气多要素和海表温度月资料,分析华南区域持续性强降水过程的气候特征,诊断并比较与华南前汛期、后汛期区域持续性强降水年际变化相关的大气环流和海表温度异常特征。结果表明,3—12月华南都可能出现持续性强降水过程,其中汛期4—9月的占了94.4%。伴随着区域持续性强降水的年际变化,华南本地垂直上升运动显著异常是前汛期和后汛期的共同点,但前汛期、后汛期在华南及周边环流异常、水汽输送来源以及海温异常分布等方面都存在一定差异。在前汛期华南区域持续性强降水偏重年,赤道西太平洋区域海温偏低,由于大气罗斯贝波响应使西太平洋副热带高压偏强,热带西太平洋向华南区域水汽输送加强,从而有利于区域持续性强降水偏重。后汛期华南区域持续性强降水偏重年的海温异常分布是赤道中东太平洋区域正异常、东印度洋至西太平洋暖池区负异常,海温异常通过西北太平洋副热带高压、南海热带季风强度、水汽输送和垂直环流等多方面,导致后汛期区域持续性强降水偏重。      

两次持续性暴雨天气的螺旋度对比分析

本文利用常规观测资料、逐小时区域自动站观测资料、NCEP1°× 1°逐6小时再分析资料等对安顺2019年6月5-11日和9月5-10日的持续性暴雨天气进行分析,结果表明：（1）6月5-11日天气过程主要是由于两高之间不断有短波槽东移造成的,9月5-10日天气过程主要是由于副高稳定少动,西南涡在副高外围稳定维持较造成的;（2）垂直螺旋度垂直积分越大越有利于产生强的短时强降雨,垂直螺旋度强中心发展高度越高越有利于短时强降雨持续不断的产生;（3）水汽垂直螺旋度在这2次持续性暴雨天气过程中对短时强降雨的发生和降雨强度有很好的指示,水汽垂直螺旋度在短时强降雨出现前6小时出现增大,且中心值越大短时强降雨强度越强,在短时强降雨发生期间迅速减小;（4）6月5-11日天气过程中,质量垂直螺旋度值增大-减小得越多,出现的短时强降雨强度越强。     

明渠非恒定流流速分布及推移质运动研究进展

明渠非恒定流流速分布及非恒定流作用下推移质运动分别是水力学和泥沙运动力学研究中的重要问题之一。近几十年来,国内外许多学者在这些领域做过很多探索,取得了一定进展,也存在较多问题。在总结相关研究成果的基础上,简述了明渠非恒定流试验方法、流速分布、床面切应力、非恒定流输沙与水流运动不同步现象、产生原因、以及非恒定流推移质输沙公式等方面的成果,指出了现有研究中存在的不足,提出了需要进一步研究的关键问题:应用先进的量测仪器,研究非恒定流作用下非均匀沙运动输移规律。     

新型堵漏工具——拦截式堵漏工具的研究

针对大溶洞或裂缝漏失,利用研究的拦截式堵漏工具将堵漏浆拦截在一定位置,对大裂缝漏失地层、溶洞性漏失地层进行有效封堵,从而解决该类恶性漏失问题,提高钻探施工质量和钻探效率,降低钻探成本,为钻探工程特种漏失堵漏提供新途径。