A drought outlook study in Korea

Abstract

Techniques are proposed for developing a monthly and weekly drought outlook and the drought outlook components are evaluated. A drought index, the surface water supply index (SWSI) was modified and used for the drought outlook. A water balance model (abcd) was successfully calibrated using a regional regression, including monthly and weekly factors, and was used to convert meteorology to hydrology. For the monthly drought outlook, an ensemble technique was applied, both with and without monthly industrial meteorology information (MIMI). For the weekly drought outlook, a deterministic forecasting technique was applied employing the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS). The methodologies were applied to the Geum River basin in Korea. While only the weekly outlook using the GDAPS has sufficient forecasting capability to suggest it might be useful, the accuracy of the monthly drought outlook is expected to improve as the climate forecast accuracy increases.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes

Citation Kim, Y.-O., Lee, J.-K., and Palmer, R.N., 2012. A drought outlook study in Korea. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1141–1153.     

太湖叶绿素a同化系统敏感性分析

太湖叶绿素a同化系统对于不同参数的敏感性将直接影响到该系统能否精确的估算太湖叶绿素a的浓度分布.利用2009年4月21日环境一号卫星(HJ-1B CCD2)影像数据反演太湖叶绿素a浓度场信息.以此作为背景场信息,结合基于集合均方根滤波的太湖叶绿素a同化系统,分析和评价了样本数目、同化时长、背景场误差、观测误差和模型误差对于同化系统性能的影响.结果表明:从计算成本、系统运行时间和同化效果等方面分析,当集合样本数目达到30~40左右时同化系统取得了较好的结果;同化系统对于背景场误差的估计变化不是很敏感,即初始场的估计是否准确对于同化系统的性能影响不是很大;同化系统对于模型误差和观测误差的变化较为敏感,不同的测试点位由于水体动力学性质不一,其敏感性的表现形式有所差异;利用数据同化方法可以有效地估算太湖叶绿素a浓度.     

基于扩散滤波的多尺度三维变分研究

将扩散方程引入三维变分分析,揭示了传统3D-VAR不能有效提取多尺度观测信息的根本原因,即观测导致的目标函数梯度在空间的不连续分布.将扩散滤波融入基于梯度的最优化算法,发展了基于扩散滤波的多尺度3D-VAR.海表面温度数据同化试验结果表明,新方法可从长波至短波有效地提取多尺度的观测信息.     

卫星高度计资料在三维海温和盐度数值预报中的应用

随着卫星遥感观测技术的发展,越来越多的卫星观测资料被应用于数值模式的同化研究中.基于国家海洋环境预报中心西北太平洋三维湿盐流预报系统,利用法国CLS中心的沿轨高度计资料的海表面高度异常的融合数据,结合基于三维变分的OVALS(ocean variational analysis system)同化系统,在垂向将海面高度...     

State Estimation of the North Pacific Ocean by a Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Experiment

A four-dimensional variational data assimilation system has been applied to an experiment to describe the dynamic state of the North Pacific Ocean. A synthesis of available observational records and a sophisticated ocean general circulation model produces a dynamically consistent dataset, which, in contrast to the nudging approach, provides realistic features of the seasonally-varying ocean circulation with no artificial sources/sinks for temperature and salinity fields. This new dataset enables us to estimate heat and water mass transports in addition to the qualification of water mass formation and movement processes. A sensitivity experiment on our assimilation system reveals that the origin of the North Pacific Intermediate Water can be traced back to the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea in the subarctic region and to the subtropical Kuroshio region further south. These results demonstrate that our data assimilation system is a very powerful tool for the identification and characterization of ocean variabilities and for our understanding of the dynamic state of ocean circulation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Monitoring the Kuroshio Extension with Dynamically Constrained Synthesis of the Acoustic Tomography, Satellite Altimeter and in situ Data

A finite-difference quasigeostrophic (QG) model of an open ocean region has been employed to produce a dynamically constrained synthesis of acoustic tomography and satellite altimetry data with in situ observations. The assimilation algorithm is based upon the 4D variational data interpolation scheme controlled by the model's initial and boundary conditions. The data sets analyzed include direct and differential travel times measured at the array of five acoustic transceivers deployed by JAMSTEC in the region of the Kuroshio Extension in 1997, Topex/Poseidon altimetry, CTD soundings, and ADCP velocity profiles. The region monitored is located within the area 27.5°–36.5°N, 143°–155°. The results of assimilation show that mesoscale variability can be effectively reconstructed by five transceivers measuring direct and reciprocal travel times supported by relatively sparse in situ measurements. The misfits between model and data lie within the observational error bars for all the data types used in assimilation. We have compared the results of assimilation with the statistical inversion of travel time data and analyzed energy balances of the optimized model solution. Energy exchange between the depth-averaged and shear components of the observed currents reveals a weak decay of the barotropic mode at the rate of 0.2 ± 0.7⋅10⁻⁵ cm²/s³ due to topographic interaction. Mean currents in the region are unstable with an estimate of the available potential energy flux from the mean current to the eddies of 4.7 ± 2.3⋅10⁻⁵ cm²/s³. Kinetic energy transition has the same sign and is estimated as 2.8 ± 2.5⋅10⁻⁵ cm²/s³. Potential enstrophy is transferred to the mesoscale at a rate of 5.5 ± 2.7⋅10⁻¹⁸ s⁻³. These figures provide observational evidence of the properties of free geostrophic turbulence which were predicted by theory and observed in numerical experiments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Nitrogen utilisation by size‐fractionated phytoplankton assemblages associated with an upwelling event off Westland,New Zealand

Abstract

Uptake rates of ammonium (NH₄ ⁺ ), nitrate (NO₃ ^? ), and urea by three subgroups of phytoplankton (< 200, < 20, < 2 μm) off Westland, were measured using ¹⁵ N tracer techniques in midwinter 1988, after a recent upwelling. For all size fractions at surface irradiance (I₁₀₀), nitrogen (N) was taken up primarily as NO₃ ^?. This accounted for 67–85% of total N uptake (SρN), whereas at 40 and 7% of surface irradiance, the regenerated N (NH₄ ⁺ ) and urea) made up 31–72% of SρN. Depth profile experiments for all three size components showed that uptake of NO₃ ^? was most light‐sensitive, followed by that of NH₄ ⁺ and urea. The irradiance and nutrient availability plot indicated that light was substantially more important than the nutrient concentrations in controlling the assimilation of N by microplankton (20–200 μm). Nano‐ (2–20 μm) and picoplankton (< 2 μm) however, were not as sensitive to either light or nutrient concentrations. High winds and the resulting deep mixing, combined with offshore and alongshore advection in the midwinter, were suggested to be the major cause of the low biomass and N productivity.     

柴达木北缘东段呼德生镁铁-超镁铁质岩体锆石U-Pb年代学、地球化学及成岩成矿分析

呼德生岩体位于柴北缘造山带欧龙布鲁克微陆块东南缘,侵位于古元古代金水口变质岩群中。该岩体从中心到边缘依次出现橄榄岩→辉石岩→辉长岩的岩相分带特征,岩石主要类型有纯橄岩、橄榄二辉岩和辉长岩,各岩石之间多为过渡接触关系,镍铜矿化主要赋存于辉石岩中。锆石LAICP-MS U-Pb年代学研究表明,岩体形成年龄为425.2±5.8Ma,为柴北缘晚志留世-晚泥盆世后造山伸展阶段岩浆作用的产物。岩石镁铁比值(m/f)为2.51~5.37,属于铁质系列基性-超基性岩。各类岩石富集轻稀土元素(LREE)和大离子亲石元素(Ba、Sr、Rb),而亏损高场强元素(Zr、Hf、Nb、Ta)。岩相学、矿物学及岩石地球化学研究表明岩浆在演化过程中发生了一定程度的结晶分异作用和同化混染作用。结合岩体形成年代及区域地质资料,呼德生岩体应形成于大陆边缘伸展阶段,原始岩浆在演化过程中经历了地幔流体的交代作用。通过对岩浆结晶分异程度及同化混染情况等方面的综合评价,认为呼德生岩体具有良好的铜镍硫化物矿床形成条件。     

Phase Equilibria Constraints on the Chemical and Physical Evolution of the Campanian Ignimbrite

The Campanian Ignimbrite is a > 200 km³ trachyte–phonolitepyroclastic deposit that erupted at 39·3 ± 0·1ka within the Campi Flegrei west of Naples, Italy. Here we testthe hypothesis that Campanian Ignimbrite magma was derived byisobaric crystal fractionation of a parental basaltic trachyandesiticmelt that reacted and came into local equilibrium with smallamounts (5–10 wt%) of crustal rock (skarns and foid-syenites)during crystallization. Comparison of observed crystal and magmacompositions with results of phase equilibria assimilation–fractionationsimulations (MELTS) is generally very good. Oxygen fugacitywas approximately buffered along QFM + 1 (where QFM is the quartz–fayalite–magnetitebuffer) during isobaric fractionation at 0·15 GPa ( 6km depth). The parental melt, reconstructed from melt inclusionand host clinopyroxene compositions, is found to be basaltictrachyandesite liquid (51·1 wt% SiO₂, 9·3 wt%MgO, 3 wt% H₂O). A significant feature of phase equilibria simulationsis the existence of a pseudo-invariant temperature, 883 °C,at which the fraction of melt remaining in the system decreasesabruptly from 0·5 to < 0·1. Crystallizationat the pseudo-invariant point leads to abrupt changes in thecomposition, properties (density, dissolved water content),and physical state (viscosity, volume fraction fluid) of meltand magma. A dramatic decrease in melt viscosity (from 1700Pa s to 200 Pa s), coupled with a change in the volume fractionof water in magma (from 0·1 to 0·8) and a dramaticdecrease in melt and magma density acted as a destabilizingeruption trigger. Thermal models suggest a timescale of 200kyr from the beginning of fractionation until eruption, leadingto an apparent rate of evolved magma generation of about 10^–3km³/year. In situ crystallization and crystal settling in density-stratifiedregions, as well as in convectively mixed, less evolved subjacentmagma, operate rapidly enough to match this apparent volumetricrate of evolved magma production. KEY WORDS: assimilation; Campanian Ignimbrite; fractional crystallization; magma dynamics; phase equilibria