大气水汽变化及其反馈效应研究进展

大气水汽变化的反馈作用是影响平衡气候系统敏感性的最大反馈作用之一,能够放大其他温室气体增暖的效应,并可能导致极端天气气候事件的发生趋多趋强。因此,全面分析大气水汽的时空分布特征及其长期变化趋势,评估大气水汽反馈的区域气候效应,对于我们深入认识和理解全球变暖背景下区域气候响应的机理具有重要意义。综合国内外最新研究,已基本能够确定水汽反馈效应为一种使得全球增暖加快近一倍的强烈正反馈,并已能够估计其大致变化范围,但是此估计仍存在较大不确定性。随着卫星和探空技术的发展,目前已有的长期水汽资料日趋丰富,但资料之间也存在一些不确定性问题,同时单个资料本身也存在非均一性问题。最新的气候系统模式已能够大致模拟大气水汽的反馈效应,但近年的进展速度却并不令人乐观。我国的水汽观测和水汽反馈效应的研究也已取得长足进步,可以基本确定为水汽变化与地面温度存在正反馈关系,而与降水的关系虽然也较为密切,但因区域气候变化仍存在较大的不一致性。     

用地面湿度参量计算我国整层大气可降水量及有效水汽含量方法的研究

根据1993年我国28个台站地面及高空气象要素资料,拟合出这28个台站所在地区整层大气可降水量同地面湿度参量(地面水汽压、地面露点)关系的经验表达式,并且在此基础上,通过引进地理纬度ψ和海拔高度H两个参量,将经验系数参数化,建立起由地面湿度参量计算整层大气可降水量的经验计算模式.另外还拟合出这些地区整层大气有效水汽含量同可降水量关系的经验表达式,提出一个先由地面湿度参量计算整层大气可降水量,再由此计算出整层大气有效水汽含量的方法.     

全球水循环研究进展

以国际组织围绕全球变化问题执行的一系列与水循环相关的研究计划为背景,总结了近40年来陆地-大气间水循环研究的重要成果,并探讨了在全球气候变化的背景下,水循环需要进一步研究的突出问题。     

CMIP6与CMIP5对历史大气层顶和地表辐射收支模拟的时空对比

基于云和地球辐射能量系统观测数据集（CERES),对比分析了耦合模式比较计划第五（CMIP5）和第六阶段（CMIP6）模拟的历史大气层顶和地表辐射收支的年际变化和空间分布,明确了多模式间不确定性大的关键区域。结果表明：在年际尺度上,除地表向上长波辐射外,CMIP6的辐射分量的集合均值较CMIP5更接近于CERES观测值,全球地表向下短波辐射的高估和大气逆辐射的低估在CMIP6中分别降低了1.9 W/m²和3.3 W/m²。除大气逆辐射外,CMIP6的辐射分量在多模式间的一致性较CMIP5提高。在北极,CMIP6对大气层顶反射短波、大气层顶出射长波和地表向下短波辐射的模拟偏差较CMIP5大。在南北纬60°,CMIP6对大气逆辐射的模拟偏差较CMIP5大。其他区域CMIP6的辐射分量更接近CERES观测值。CMIP6模拟的地表向下短波辐射和大气逆辐射的不确定性较大区域面积较CMIP5减小,但不确定性极大区域面积无变化。地表净辐射的不确定性空间分布在两代CMIP间变化甚小。青藏高原、赤道太平洋、热带雨林、阿拉伯半岛和南极洲沿海依然是地球系统模式模拟辐射收支不确定性极大的关键区域。     

南疆暴雨研究进展

南疆地区位于欧亚腹地,属于典型的温带大陆性干旱气候,受复杂地形地貌、天气系统路径以及特殊的大气环流与水汽条件等影响,暴雨突发性强且地域性特征显著。目前,全球数值预报模式及中尺度数值模式对南疆暴雨的预报能力十分有限,近年来,许多研究团队在塔里木盆地进行了大型外场观测试验,对揭示南疆暴雨的机制机理有了更多启示,对造成南疆暴雨的对流触发机制、高低空系统配置及演变特征、降雨云物理过程等都有了更为深入的认识。本文对南疆暴雨的气候特征、大尺度环流背景、中尺度系统发生发展、水汽输送、降水动力机制等方面进行了总结回顾,并提出了需要进一步研究的科学问题,以期为进一步开展南疆暴雨研究、提高暴雨预报准确率及防灾减灾能力提供参考。     

Dominant Modes of Interannual Variability in Atmospheric Water Vapor Content over East Asia during Winter and Their Associated Mechanisms

Atmospheric water vapor content(WVC) is a critical factor for East Asian winter precipitation. This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability in WVC over East Asia during winter and their underlying mechanisms.Based on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) method, the leading mode(EOF1, R~2 = 28.9%) of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a meridional dipole pattern characterized by opposite WVC anomalies over northeastern China and eastern China; the second mode(EOF2, R~2 = 24.3%) of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a monopole pattern characterized by consistent WVC anomalies over eastern China. EOF1 is mainly modulated by two anomalous zonal water vapor transport(WVT) branches over northeastern China and eastern China, which are associated with an anomalous atmospheric wave train over Eurasia affected by sea ice cover in the Kara Sea-Barents Sea(SIC-KSBS) area in the preceding October-November(ON). EOF2 is mainly modulated by an anomalous westerly WVT branch over eastern China, which is associated with a circumglobal atmospheric zonal wave train in the Northern Hemisphere. This circumglobal zonal wave train is modulated by concurrent central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. The SIC-KSBS anomalies in ON and the concurrent SST anomalies over tropical Pacific may partially account for the interannual variability of EOF1 and EOF2 winter WVC, and thus may provide a theoretical basis for improving the prediction of winter climate over East Asia.     

南京降水氢氧同位素监测特征

基于2018年7月—2019年6月南京降水同位素观测数据和中国气象局气象观测数据,研究南京降水稳定同位素组成的变化特征,对比热带气旋降水、梅雨降水和其他降水的降水同位素组成特征,研究降水同位素组成与热带气旋移动路径关系。结果表明：南京降水氧同位素组成(δ18O)和氢同位素组成(δ2H)的变化范围分别为-16.3‰~4.0‰和-103.0‰~32.9‰,雨季降水氢氧同位素组成相对贫化,非雨季相对富集;降水氘盈余的降水加权平均值为15.5‰,表明南京降水受陆面过程影响大。从降水量权重看,热带气旋降水和梅雨降水强度大,降水氢氧同位素组成严重贫化;其他降水的强度相对较弱,降水氢氧同位素组成比较富集;受水汽源地和陆面循环等过程的综合影响,热带气旋降水氘盈余小于全球平均值(10‰),梅雨降水氘盈余略高于全球平均值,其他降水氘盈余远高于全球平均值。登陆前仅在海洋上移动的热带气旋,降水氘盈余维持在7.5‰~8.6‰,但二次登陆的热带气旋降水氘盈余远大于10‰,可能是受到陆地蒸散过程的影响。     

Observations and model estimates of diurnal water temperature dynamics in mosquito breeding sites in western Kenya

Water temperature is an important determinant of the growth and development of malaria mosquito immatures. To gain a better understanding of the daily temperature dynamics of malaria mosquito breeding sites and of the relationships between meteorological variables and water temperature, three clear water pools (diameter × depth: 0·16 × 0·04, 0·32 × 0·16 and 0·96 × 0·32 m) were created in Kenya. Continuous water temperature measurements at various depths were combined with weather data collections from a meteorological station. The water pools were homothermic, but the top water layer differed by up to about 2 °C in temperature, depending on weather conditions. Although the daily mean temperature of all water pools was similar (27·4–28·1 °C), the average recorded difference between the daily minimum and maximum temperature was 14·4 °C in the smallest versus 7·1 °C in the largest water pool. Average water temperature corresponded well with various meteorological variables. The temperature of each water pool was continuously higher than the air temperature. A model was developed that predicts the diurnal water temperature dynamics accurately, based on the estimated energy budget components of these water pools. The air–water interface appeared the most important boundary for energy exchange processes and on average 82–89% of the total energy was gained and lost at this boundary. Besides energy loss to longwave radiation, loss due to evaporation was high; the average estimated daily evaporation ranged from 4·2 mm in the smallest to 3·7 mm in the largest water pool. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional Features of Vapor Transfer and Precipitation Distributed in Northwest China

This article investigates regional distribution features of rainfall and vapor transport in Northwest China during 1961-2002, achieving that: (1) Three climate zones in this vast region differ in trends of annual precipitation, with rainfall in the westerly belt (denoted as zoneWB) exhibiting an increasing trend from the 1970s, rainfall in the East Asian monsoon belt (denoted as zoneMB) displaying a decreasing trend in the study period and the Qinghai Plateau zone (denoted as zoneQP) precipitation fluctuating roughly around the mean; (2) The net vapor fluxes (NVF) in zoneWB and zoneQP show an increasing trend as opposited to zoneMB, for which the reason may lie behind that the NVF increase in zoneWB and zoneQP is attributed to pronounced decrease in deficit of westerly NVF, whereas the decrease in zoneMB NVF is ascribed to the significant drop in meridional vapor transfer; (3) ZoneWB rainfall and atmospheric vapor transport change abrupt in 1990 and 1985, respectively, without such happening in zoneMB and zoneQP; (4) ZoneWB rainfall increase occurs when atmospheric vapor budget/NVF increases, so that the latter has to occur ahead of the former; zoneMB rainfall decrease relates to the decrease in atmospheric vapor budget after the 1990s,leading to (more and even) successive droughts in the east of Northwest China on a synchronous basis except zoneQP of which the precipitation factors include river evaporation, glaciers, and snow cover in addition to atmospheric vapor.     

水汽层析代数重构算法

讨论了代数重构算法在水汽层析应用中的各种问题,包括约束条件的构造、层析初值的选择、松弛因子的计算、终止条件的确定等,给出了计算最优松弛因子的黄金分割搜索法和确定终止条件的NCP规则,对比分析了Kaczmarz、Randkaczmarz、Symkaczmarz、SART、Landweber、Cimmino、CAV、DROP等8种常见的代数重构算法,并以香港SatRef的观测数据进行了试验。试验结果表明,以上8种代数重构技术都能够满足水汽层析的要求;迭代终止条件比松弛因子更为重要;采用文中计算最优松弛因子的黄金分割搜索法和NCP迭代终止条件,CAV算法结果最优,其次为Cimmino算法。