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101.
102.
We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C. 相似文献
103.
In this paper it is argued that the re-establishment of a metropolitan government in the Greater Copenhagen Area in 2000 (Greater
Copenhagen Authority) is not to be seen as a return to the kind of regional, coordinative authority (Greater Copenhagen Council)
that was abolished in the Thatcherite climate of the 1980s. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s new forms of urban governance,
entrepreneurialism and a higher national priority to the capital region were introduced, which changed the conditions under
which the new metropolitan government is operating. This `contextualization' of the analysis of the two generations of metropolitan
government points to the fact that typologies of metropolitan government, such as the one put forward by Sharpe (1995), often
lacks analytical cogency.
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
104.
As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique
potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of
this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties
in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region.
Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region
have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement
potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not
impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently,
the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region
into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia,
which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The
paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers
to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed
in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to
others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the
region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
105.
Traditional models of urban development are no longer adequate to describe current metropolitan transformations. These are
now at the centre of a debate concerning management and administration. In Italy, delays in resolving problems of urban and
metropolitan government, despite the legal framework provided by Law 142/90, have weighed heavily on the larger urban areas
of the country: Rome, Naples, Milan, which have not been able to tackle the issue of metropolitan government. Recent legislation,
while not providing a pre-defined institutional solution, allows separate administrative districts to collectively establish
metropolitan institutions of `variable geometry'. The Milan urban area is not one city, but a system of mutually-dependent
cities, linked to each other and the rest of the world by a transport network still requiring much investment. The vitality
of its economic structure (especially its small firms) is held back by seriously inadequate infrastructure and low external
economic efficiency. The provincial capital may boast `historic centrality' but the most interesting potential for development
is to be found on the periphery and in the administrative districts immediately surrounding it, in the recovery of derelict
industrial areas and dormitory towns established in the 1950s and 1960s, especially to the north. Recovery of derelict areas,
green areas, and better transport links within the urban area and with the outside world are the key elements in the reorganization
of `Greater Milan'. In this situation of rapid transformation the most appropriate political strategies involve negotiated
planning.
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
106.
Marianne Font Jean-Louis Lagarde Daniel Amorese Jean-Pierre Coutard Jean-Claude Ozouf 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2002,334(3):171-178
The degradation of the Jobourg fault-scarp occurred by cryoclastic processes in a periglacial environment during a part of Quaternary time. An attempt of quantification indicates a bulk scarp erosion of about 39 m3 m?2, while the head accumulated at the bottom of the fault scarp only represents 4.6 m3 m?2. To cite this article: M. Font et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 171–178. 相似文献
107.
Counting chronology and climate records with about 1000 annual layers of a Holocene stalagmite from the Water Cave in Liaoning Province, China 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
One active stalagmite from the Water Cave in Liaoning Province contains growth layers of three sizes. Based on thermal ionization mass spectrometry 230Th dating, we found that middle size layers are annual layers, with each middle layer consisting of one narrow dark layer and a wide bright layer. The small layers within middle layers are sub-annual layers and the large layers are multi-year layers. Based on the layer-counting method, we established a high-resolution time scale for layer thickness. Our results reveal two dramatic century-scale climate cycles over the past 1000 years in this region. 相似文献
108.
Based on cross-dating tree rings from the Tianmu Mountain, Zhejiang Province, the tree rings α-cellulose δ 13C time series was measured. By spectrum analysis, the variation of tree-ring δ13C sequence shows a quasi periodicity of 4.4 years, which is coincident with the standard cycle of El Nino. After removing the long-term decrease trend of the δ13C variation related to atmospheric CO2 concentration, the response of the δ13C to climate elements was analyzed using meteorology data from a nearby weather station. The results suggest that there is a distinct relativity between high-frequency variation of tree ring δ 13C series and seasonal climate parameters, e.g. Temperature and precipitation, with a significant time-lag effect. In addition, the high frequency also reflects the strength change of the East Asian Monsoon. The multiple regression method was employed to reconstruct the historical climate, and to analyze the climate change and trend in the last 160 years in the northern Zhejiang Province. 相似文献
109.
MODIFIED MASS FLUX CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PART Ⅰ:MASS FLUX SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION OF THE 1991 FLOOD EVENT*
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Based on the existing cumulus convective parameterization schemes,a mass flux scheme (MFS) for cumulus convective parameterization has been successfully developed by reference to the work of Chen et al. (1996).The MFS is a comprehensive scheme.In MFS,not only the importance of the large-scale moisture convergence is taken into account,but also it includes the cumulus updrafts and downdrafts,cumulus-induced subsidence in the environmental air.entrainment,detrainment and evaporation.The interaction between the cumulus and the environment is described by using a one-dimensional bulk model.At the same time the scheme includes the penetrative and shallow convections.The MFS has been successfully incorporated into the regional climate model RegCM2 developed by NCAR.The new model has been applied to simulate summer monsoon characteristics and their variations of heavy rainfall process in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basins for three months from May to July 1991.The results show that the new model can successfully simulate this rainfall prolonged process.By comparising the model outputs of RegCM2.using the Kuo scheme and the MFS.it is found that the MFS is better in simulating the surface temperature,rainfall position and amount,and rainfall duration. 相似文献
110.
简要地介绍了开展大城市地震活断层探测的意义及世界各国开展活断层探测的基本情况。城市及邻近地区地震活断层引起的直下型地震 ,将会给大城市造成巨大的地震灾害。准确地探测出大城市的活断层分布 ,采取有效措施 ,可大大降低地震时的损失。文中重点介绍了开展地震活断层探测的地球物理方法的类型和主要特点 ,在区域探查与初步鉴定阶段、详细探测与精确定位阶段、孕震构造探测阶段可能涉及到的各种地球物理探测方法、适用范围及所能解决的主要问题 相似文献