超轻型井点降水新技术的研究与应用

分析了轻型井点降水设备的现状与不足，提出了超轻型井点降水新技术，即对现有轻型井点降水设备进一步轻化。介绍了轻化改进的措施，并通过工程检验，取得了良好效果。     

大河三角洲全新世海平面研究中的若干重要问题——以长江、尼罗河和密西西比河三角洲为例

本文回顾和总结了不同纬度带大河三角洲全新世相对海平面曲线的特征及影响因素.以相近纬度带的长江、尼罗河与密西西比河三角洲为例,剖析了全新世中期无“高于现代平均海平面”的“壅水”现象,认为直布罗陀海峡、加勒比海岛屿和白令海峡对北极圈南下融水进入地中海、墨西哥湾和西太平洋起到了限制作用.大量的研究还表明,距今约7ka时尼罗河三角洲相对海平面低于现今约14m,而此时密西西比河三角洲相对海平面约为-10m,长江三角洲仅约为-5m;随后,它们的差距逐渐减小,反映了沉降作用对相对海平面变化的影响.论文提出一种利用全新世三角洲沉积层序、结合相对海平面曲线来判断区域沉降差异的方法;总结了三角洲古地形对海平面上升的响应模式,以及利用三角洲新石器遗址“最低居住面”重塑全新世相对海平面变化的路径.这些均为三角洲地区全新世海平面变化与地貌环境演化的相关研究提供了新的前景.     

山东地区一次夏季极端暴雨中尺度系统发展演变过程及机理分析

对2020年7月22日山东半岛一次极端暴雨天气过程开展观测分析,并利用中尺度模式WRF对此次局地降水过程进行了高分辨率数值模拟,对暴雨过程进行了天气背景和中尺度降雨的诊断。WRF模式较好地再现了此次极端暴雨过程,结果表明：此次极端暴雨过程短时降水强度大且局地性强,在时空上具有明显中尺度特征。降水发生在北抬副热带高压与华北低涡底部之间的西南气流中,强低涡与低空急流是影响此次降水的重要天气系统。西南急流为本次暴雨过程极端水汽的主要输送载体;在弱高空辐散场下,从地表延伸至500 hPa高空的深厚低涡是造成本次暴雨的主要影响因子,其时空演变特征与中尺度云团变化一致,与暴雨的发生直接相关。低涡、低空急流和副高之间的相互作用使低涡加强发展,低涡南部有暖湿气流入流,北部有干冷气流流入,比湿梯度基本呈现为自南向北递减分布,是典型的伴有低空急流的中尺度低涡流场分布;低涡辐合及其与副热带高压边缘强风速带的共同作用,导致强垂直运动发展并维持,是造成本次山东半岛极端暴雨的重要原因。     

Exploring the sensitivity of coastal inundation modelling to DEM vertical error

As sea level is projected to rise throughout the twenty-first century due to climate change, there is a need to ensure that sea level rise (SLR) models accurately and defensibly represent future flood inundation levels to allow for effective coastal zone management. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are integral to SLR modelling, but are subject to error, including in their vertical resolution. Error in DEMs leads to uncertainty in the output of SLR inundation models, which if not considered, may result in poor coastal management decisions. However, DEM error is not usually described in detail by DEM suppliers; commonly only the RMSE is reported. This research explores the impact of stated vertical error in delineating zones of inundation in two locations along the Devon, United Kingdom, coastline (Exe and Otter Estuaries). We explore the consequences of needing to make assumptions about the distribution of error in the absence of detailed error data using a 1 m, publically available composite DEM with a maximum RMSE of 0.15 m, typical of recent LiDAR-derived DEMs. We compare uncertainty using two methods (i) the NOAA inundation uncertainty mapping method which assumes a normal distribution of error and (ii) a hydrologically correct bathtub method where the DEM is uniformly perturbed between the upper and lower bounds of a 95% linear error in 500 Monte Carlo Simulations (HBM+MCS). The NOAA method produced a broader zone of uncertainty (an increase of 134.9% on the HBM+MCS method), which is particularly evident in the flatter topography of the upper estuaries. The HBM+MCS method generates a narrower band of uncertainty for these flatter areas, but very similar extents where shorelines are steeper. The differences in inundation extents produced by the methods relate to a number of underpinning assumptions, and particularly, how the stated RMSE is interpreted and used to represent error in a practical sense. Unlike the NOAA method, the HBM+MCS model is computationally intensive, depending on the areas under consideration and the number of iterations. We therefore used the HBM+ MCS method to derive a regression relationship between elevation and inundation probability for the Exe Estuary. We then apply this to the adjacent Otter Estuary and show that it can defensibly reproduce zones of inundation uncertainty, avoiding the computationally intensive step of the HBM+MCS. The equation-derived zone of uncertainty was 112.1% larger than the HBM+MCS method, compared to the NOAA method which produced an uncertain area 423.9% larger. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages and requires value judgements to be made. Their use underscores the need for transparency in assumptions and communications of outputs. We urge DEM publishers to move beyond provision of a generalised RMSE and provide more detailed estimates of spatial error and complete metadata, including locations of ground control points and associated land cover.     

运用层序不对称性分析海平面变化特征

目前研究海平面变化的方法尚不能精确确定海平面变化，对记录海平面变化的沉积体或层序物质组成及结构特点的研究尚显薄弱。在分析层序不对称性与海平面变化的关系基础，提出层序不对称系数S0，认为海平面的升降变化对浅水沉积区影响显著，其结果必然造成层序S0的增加；海平面的升降变化对沉水沉积区影响不大，层序S0较为恒定。对进行详细研究中扬子区S0分布特点，运用S0曲线计算了中扬子区海平面变化特点，并与其他方法进行对比，认为可以用S0判断水体相对深浅，分析海平面变化。     

高空急流区飞机颠簸的一种形成机制的探讨

作者应用动力学分析方法，结合观测飞机颠簸的事实，对高空急流区飞机颠簸的一种形成机理进行了理论探讨。结果表明，高空急流区温度平流分布的不均匀性，会在急流附近等温线密集区边缘激发出空气垂直运动和湍流，引起飞机颠簸。     

利用决策级融合进行遥感影像分类

提出了一种基于决策级融合的遥感影像分类方法。该方法对遥感影像特征以最大似然分类器进行预分类,应用Adaboost算法将分类的结果进行决策级融合,实现影像的分类。实验结果表明,该方法的分类精度较传统分类方法有明显的提高。     

基于QTM的海平面上升分析与模拟

针对海平面上升影响范围分析与模拟这一国际前沿问题,通过研究基于球面四元三角网(QTM)的关键技术问题,包括复杂拓扑关系计算、LOD剖分、球面水淹分析、基于QTM的多分辨率的DEM数据组织方法和分析精度的相关性评定等,以.Net和Direct3D为开发工具,设计开发了基于QTM的海平面上升影响范围评估模型。该研究结果可为全球海平面上升影响的防灾减灾决策提供有效支撑,并推动了球面数据模型和球面格网拓扑分析的理论成果在全球变化预测相关领域的应用进展。     

An Extreme Monsoonal Heavy Rainfall Event over Inland South China in June 2023: A Synoptic Causes Analysis

An extreme monsoonal heavy rainfall event lasted for nine days and recurred in the interior of northern south China from June 13 to 21, 2022. Using regional meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, the causes of this extreme monsoonal rainfall event in south China were analyzed and diagnosed. The results are shown as follows. A dominant South Asian high tended to be stable near the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, providing favorable upper-level dispersion conditions for the occurrence of heavy rainfall in south China. A western Pacific subtropical high dominated the eastern part of the South China Sea, favoring stronger and more northward transport of water vapor to the northern part of south China at lower latitudes than normal. The continuous heavy precipitation event can be divided into two stages. The first stage (June 13-15) was the frontal heavy rainfall caused by cold air (brought by an East Asian trough) from the mid-latitudes that converged with a monsoonal airflow. The heavy rains occurred mostly in the area near a shear in front of the center of a synoptic-system-related low-level jet (SLLJ), and the jet stream and precipitation were strongest in the daytime. The second stage (June 16-21) was the warm-sector heavy rainfall caused by a South China Sea monsoonal low-level jet penetrating inland. The heavy rainfall occurred on the windward slope of the Nanling Mountains and in the northern part of a boundary layer jet (BLJ). The BLJ experienced five nighttime enhancements, corresponding well with the enhancement of the rainfall center, showing significant nighttime heavy rainfall characteristics. Finally, a conceptual diagram of inland-type warm-sector heavy rainfall in south China is summarized.     

黑潮延伸区的海平面异常和中尺度涡的统计分析

利用1993～2004年卫星高度计TP/Jason-1和 ERS/ENVISAT提供的海平面异常(SLA)融合数据,分析了黑潮延伸区12年来的平均海平面异常的变化特征及中尺度涡的分布规律.研究表明,在黑潮延伸区海平面异常(SLA)呈递增趋势,年平均上升率为8.89mm/a,显著性周期是1年、0.5年和6年;黑潮延伸区的海平面异常和海表面温度异常的低频分量与Nino3指数具有较高的相关性.这说明,黑潮延伸区的海平面变化和海表面温度与厄尔尼诺事件密切相关,都受到黑潮变化的密切影响.在日本东部的黑潮延伸区,中尺度涡自东向西移动,寿命约为1年,移动速度大约是10经度/年.气旋涡和反气旋涡的面积呈现几乎同步增减的规律,均呈年周期变化,上半年少,下半年多.在1997～1998年,黑潮延伸区内中尺度涡的面积显著减小,并且正好对应于Nino3指数极大值出现的年份.因此,黑潮延伸区内中尺度涡的数量和强度也与厄尔尼诺事件密切相关.