新疆百里风区强风中尺度特征分析

大尺度环流背景和天山山脉大地形共同作用形成新疆百里风区，其风力之大居全疆九大风区之首。为进一步研究百里风区强风中尺度特征及其与局地地形的关系，选取2018年5月6—8日百里风区强风天气过程，使用WRF模式进行中尺度模拟分析，形成以下结论：天山两侧气压梯度力驱动下冷空气翻越天山，经色皮山口狭管效应和过山波水跃下沉接力加速，在背风坡上空形成强风区，强风区接地形成百里风区地面大风；大风过程中，七角井盆地地形强迫引发有限振幅重力波，背风坡上空大风区之上的临界层吸收上层能量并向下传递，增大了大风区的风速，使得低空大风区的接地更加充分。低空大气稳定层结的强度与大风强度相对应。     

A back analysis scheme for refined soil stratification based on integrating borehole and CPT data

Utilizing both borehole and Cone Penetration Testing (CPT) data in soil stratification helps to get more convincing soil stratification results. However, the soil classification results revealed by borehole (Unified Soil Classification System, USCS) and CPT tests (soil behavior type, SBT) are commonly not consistent. This study proposes a feasible solution to integrate the borehole and CPT data with the tree-based method. The tree-based method is naturally suitable for soil stratification tasks as it aims to divide the subsurface space into several clusters based on the similarities of the soil types. A novel boundary dictionary method is proposed to enhance the model performance on complex soil layer conditions. A probabilistic mapping matrix between the USCS-SBT system is built based on a collected municipal database with collocated borehole and CPT data. The optimal soil stratification results can be selected based on considering multiple borehole information and pruning the structure of trees. The structure of the trees can be optimized in a back analysis perspective with the Sequential Model-Based Global Optimization (SMBO) algorithm which aims to maximize the possibility of observing the borehole information based on the USCS-SBT probabilistic mapping matrix. The uncertainties of the optimal soil stratification results can be estimated based on a weighted Gini index method. The performance of the proposed method is validated based on a real case in New Zealand with a cross-validation method. The results indicate that the proposed method is robust and effective.     

广西秋冬季暴雨天气分型及基本特征

利用1980-2016年站点观测数据和NCEP再分析资料对广西秋冬季暴雨进行了天气学分型，并用合成分析的方法给出了各类暴雨的天气形势特征。结果表明：广西秋冬季暴雨可分为台风类、切变类和副高边缘类三类。其中，前两类暴雨发生次数最多，主要发生在9-10月份。高低空系统配置显示，秋冬季暴雨发生时对流层上层都伴有较强的高空急流，而对流层中低层的影响系统不尽相同；在暴雨期间，前两类暴雨副高减弱东退，第三类暴雨副高则加强西伸；广西秋冬季三种类型暴雨在水汽、热力、动力及形成机制方面也各有异同，但与汛期暴雨相比，各类暴雨的主要影响系统位置稍有差异，无论是水汽条件，还是动力条件，秋冬季暴雨比汛期暴雨要求都高，其中副高边缘类暴雨在不同季节差异最为明显。