基于面向对象方法的Sentinel-1A SAR在洪水监测 中的应用

开展Sentinel-1A SAR数据在洪水淹没范围提取和水体变化监测方面的应用研究,对科学有效地管理洪涝灾害有重要意义。合成孔径雷达以其不受天气影响、能穿透云层、覆盖面积广等特点成为灾害监测的重要数据来源。面向对象的方法能有效解决影像的椒盐现象被广泛运用于信息提取研究。本文基于Sentinel-1A SAR数据,利用面向对象的方法构建洪水淹没范围提取流程,绘制灾前、灾中、灾后水体变化监测图,对比分析基于传统像元的提取方法,实现对广西临桂会仙岩溶湿地区域不同时期洪水动态监测。研究表明,Sentinel-1A SAR数据在洪水监测领域有巨大的应用潜力,相较于传统基于像元的方法,面向对象的方法能有效抑制杂斑生成,提高空间信息的利用效率,具有更好的提取精度。     

建国50年来我国金红石矿产地质勘查及研究历史的回顾

我国金红石矿床地质勘查可分为 1949～ 196 6年、196 7～ 1976年、1977～ 1985年、1986～ 1999年四个阶段 ,实行金红石专门找矿的最后一个阶段发现矿床的速度远高于综合找矿的前三个阶段 ,共发现矿床 5 9处 ,探明储量 1亿t。相应的系统地质研究分为 1980～ 1989年初步研究、1990～ 1999年深入研究两个阶段。成矿理论体系初步形成 :矿床有 11个成因类型、5个成矿区带 ;矿床主要在变质岩地区沿深大断裂分布 ;成矿时代主要为晚元古代末期、泥盆纪、中生代及第四纪 ;成矿主要与板块的三次活动有关。     

采用随机模拟技术与常规水文方法相结合的洪水过程模拟法

随着江河上兴建的水利工程日渐增多,流域的防洪规划和防洪调度工作,正在从以个别工程为主要研究对象转向以全流域复杂库群为研究对象。常规水文方法很难反映这种复杂流域的水文特性,在工程实践中其局限性越来越突出。随着计算机运算能力的提高,径流的随机模拟技术逐步得到研究和应用。本文分析了常规水文方法与纯数学随机模拟技术的不足,并提出了一种新的、简单易行的模拟全流域洪水的模拟方法,该方法已应用于太子河流域的库群联合防洪调度中,并取得了较好的成果。     

西太平洋副热带高压异常进退的对比分析

对1980年7月29日—8月16日西太平洋副高位置持续偏南和1983年7月16日—8月12日西太平洋副高位置持续偏北的两次季节内副高中期进退过程的环流特征和加热差异作了对比分析,讨论了东亚季风与对流活动、副高进退之间的关系.      

洞庭湖的调节作用对荆江径流的影响

洞庭湖对荆江径流有高效率的调节作用。根据长系列水文资料分析表明,荆江径流经调节后,年平均径流量,汛期径流量与汛枯期径流比分别减少了２６．３％、３２．９％与３２．４％,年平均径流量与汛期径流量均呈沿程递减。这些在长江干流都是独一无二的。下荆江的流量最大变化幅度系数Ｑｋ为０．８９２,在长江干流属最小。     

河流支流入汇口处水利工程防洪设计水位研究:以珠江流域西江桂平航运枢纽为例

修建在河流支流入汇口处的水利工程,同时受干、支流洪水共同作用,其防洪水位不但与洪水组合特性有关,还与洪水、水利工程行洪的耦合关系有关.已有采用设计洪水重现期对应的特征洪水组合,或者直接采用经验洪水组合进行调洪计算得到防洪设计水位的方法无法有效反映洪水与水利工程的相互作用.本文结合防洪标准的本质,利用Copula-蒙特卡罗模拟方法对修建在支流入汇口处的水利工程的防洪设计水位进行计算,并以珠江流域西江支流郁江广西桂平航运枢纽水闸为例展开研究.结果表明:Copula-蒙特卡罗模拟方法可以有效考虑干、支流洪水组合特性及其与水利工程行洪的耦合关系,以其计算得到的防洪设计水位唯一且可保证达到防洪标准的要求,可有效克服利用洪水重现期确定防洪设计水位存在的不确定性;在干、支流洪水共同作用下,以设计洪水重现期的不同特征组合计算得到的防洪设计水位相差非常大,且与达到防洪标准要求的防洪设计水位相比完全偏离了合理的误差范围,不宜以设计洪水重现期确定防洪设计水位;利用经验洪水组合计算难以合理反映不同工程的洪水及工程特性.研究成果可为修建在支流入汇口处受干、支流洪水共同影响的水利工程防洪设计提供更合理的理论依据和思路.     

副高脊线的月内振荡对汉江上游秋汛的影响

利用1951—2014年中国台站逐日降水资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,通过突变检验、周期分析等方法,研究了秋季9—10月副高脊线的年代际变化和月内振荡特征及其与汉江上游秋季降水存在的可能关联。结果表明:秋季副高脊线位置在1997年前后发生了突变,这与秋季副高强度的突变时间存在着较为明显的差异。秋季副高脊线位置发生突变后,与1997年之前相比明显偏北,且偏北日数增多,同时月内振荡也较脊线突变前偏强,与之对应的华西秋雨的降水量也随之增多。当其准双周周期较强时,汉江上游9—10月容易降水偏多;而相反地,脊线准双周周期弱时,则更易发生少雨。     

Hydrological model parameter (in)stability – “crash testing” the HBV model under contrasting flood seasonality conditions

This paper investigates the transferability of calibrated HBV model parameters under stable and contrasting conditions in terms of flood seasonality and flood generating processes (FGP) in five Norwegian catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes. We apply a series of generalized (differential) split-sample tests using a 6-year moving window over (i) the entire runoff observation periods, and (ii) two subsets of runoff observations distinguished by the seasonal occurrence of annual maximum floods during either spring or autumn. The results indicate a general model performance loss due to the transfer of calibrated parameters to independent validation periods of ?5 to ?17%, on average. However, there is no indication that contrasting flood seasonality exacerbates performance losses, which contradicts the assumption that optimized parameter sets for snowmelt-dominated floods (during spring) perform particularly poorly on validation periods with rainfall-dominated floods (during autumn) and vice versa.     

Stormy geomorphology: geomorphic contributions in an age of climate extremes

The increasing frequency and/or severity of extreme climate events are becoming increasingly apparent over multi‐decadal timescales at the global scale, albeit with relatively low scientific confidence. At the regional scale, scientific confidence in the future trends of extreme event likelihood is stronger, although the trends are spatially variable. Confidence in these extreme climate risks is muddied by the confounding effects of internal landscape system dynamics and external forcing factors such as changes in land use and river and coastal engineering. Geomorphology is a critical discipline in disentangling climate change impacts from other controlling factors, thereby contributing to debates over societal adaptation to extreme events. We review four main geomorphic contributions to flood and storm science. First, we show how palaeogeomorphological and current process studies can extend the historical flood record while also unraveling the complex interactions between internal geomorphic dynamics, human impacts and changes in climate regimes. A key outcome will be improved quantification of flood probabilities and the hazard dimension of flood risk. Second, we present evidence showing how antecedent geomorphological and climate parameters can alter the risk and magnitude of landscape change caused by extreme events. Third, we show that geomorphic processes can both mediate and increase the geomorphological impacts of extreme events, influencing societal risk. Fourthly, we show the potential of managing flood and storm risk through the geomorphic system, both near‐term (next 50 years) and longer‐term. We recommend that key methods of managing flooding and erosion will be more effective if risk assessments include palaeodata, if geomorphological science is used to underpin nature‐based management approaches, and if land‐use management addresses changes in geomorphic process regimes that extreme events can trigger. We argue that adopting geomorphologically‐grounded adaptation strategies will enable society to develop more resilient, less vulnerable socio‐geomorphological systems fit for an age of climate extremes. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Large wood clogging during floods in a gravel‐bed river: the Długopole bridge in the Czarny Dunajec River,Poland

During floods, large quantities of wood can be mobilized and transported downstream. At critical sections, such as bridges, the transported wood might be entrapped and a quick succession of backwater effects can occur as a result of the reduction of the cross‐sectional area. The aim of this work is to explore large wood‐related hazards during floods in the gravel‐bed river Czarny Dunajec (Polish Carpathians), where the river flows through the village of D?ugopole. This work is based on the numerical modelling of large wood transport together with flow dynamics in which inlet and boundary conditions were designed based on field observations. The exploratory approach developed in this study uses multiple scenarios (193) to analyse the factors controlling bridge clogging: wood size, wood supply, flow conditions, morphology and obstacles in the riverbed. Results highlighted the strong control of log length (stronger than that of log diameter) on potential blockage probability; however, according to our results the main factor controlling bridge clogging was the flood discharge. River morphology and wood supply play an important role as well. The river morphology may reduce bridge blockage, as it influences flow velocity and depth, and creates natural retention zones for wood. In addition, the impacts of bridge blockage were analysed in terms of afflux depth and length, and flooded area. Results showed that bridge blockage may result in a significant increase in water depth (up to 0.7 m) and flooded area (up to 33% more), therefore increasing flood risk in the village. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.