Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

Dérive à la surface de l'océan sous l'effet des vagues

We model the drift velocity near the ocean surface separating the motion induced by the local current, itself influenced by winds and waves, and the motion induced by the waves, which are generated by local and remote winds. Application to the drift of ‘tar balls’, following the sinking of the oil tanker Prestige-Nassau in November 2002, shows that waves contribute at least one third of the drift for pollutants floating 1 m below the surface, with a mean direction about 30° to the right of the wind-sea direction. Although not new, this result was previously obtained with specific models, whereas the formalism used here combines classical wave and circulation forecasting models. To cite this article: F. Ardhuin et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Modélisation morphodynamique cross-shore d'un estran vaseux

Numerical experiments were performed to simulate the profile evolution of an intertidal mudflat with a 1D cross-shore morphodynamical model. First, the hydrodynamical forcing is a cross-shore tidal current due to semi-diurnal variations of the free surface elevation at the open boundary. Further, considering the conservation of the action density of surface gravity waves, a wave height (and resulting bottom shear stress) calculation is added to the morphodynamical model. Results of the numerical experiments show that the shape of the profile reaches equilibrium. The mudflat progrades continually when the forcing is tide only, whereas it can be steady under the simultaneous action of tide and waves. To cite this article: B. Waeles et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Reduction of ground vibration by means of barriers or soil improvement along a railway track

Trains running in built-up areas are a source to ground-borne noise. A careful design of the track may be one way of minimizing the vibrations in the surroundings. For example, open or infilled trenches may be constructed along the track, or the soil underneath the track may be improved. In this work, the influence of the track design and properties on the level of ground vibration due to a vehicle moving with subsonic speed is examined. A coupled finite element-boundary element model of the track and subsoil is employed, adopting a formulation in the moving frame of reference following the vehicle. The computations are carried out in the frequency domain for various combinations of the vehicle speed and the excitation frequency. The analyses indicate that open trenches are more efficient than infilled trenches or soil stiffening–even at low frequencies. However, the direction of the load is of paramount importance. For example, the response outside a shallow open trench may change dramatically when horizontal load is applied instead of vertical load.