Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.     

多孔紊动射流的数值模拟与实验研究进展

多孔射流作为流体运动的一种重要类型,在工程中具有非常广泛的用途。由于多孔射流各股水流之间的卷吸和掺混的存在,增加了流场的复杂性。长期以来研究人员从理论分析、实验测量和数值模拟方面对多孔紊动射流进行了大量的研究工作,目前已经认识了流场中的许多流动特性和流动机理。从数值模拟和实验研究两个方面,比较分析了国内外多孔紊动射流的研究现状和研究结果,评述了不同湍流模型以及不同实验测量方法对紊动射流的预测能力,讨论了存在的问题并对该领域的研究方向进行了展望。     

Actinic flux and photolysis frequency comparison computations using the model PHOTOGT

The accurate radiative transfer model GOMETRAN, initially designed to yield radiances at TOA in the wavelength range 240–790 nm, has been extended to allow for the computation of actinic fluxes down to 175 nm and for the calculation of photolysis frequencies in the atmosphere. The capability of the extended model PHOTOGT (PHOTOGOMETRAN) is demonstrated in a number of successful comparison studies both with recent experiments (ground-based, balloonborne, airborne) and model calculations of radiances, actinic fluxes and photolysis frequencies in the stratosphere and troposphere. In an atmospheric case study, the impact of new quantum yield data for the O₃ » O₂+O(¹ d) photodissociation channel on the photolytic production of O(¹ d) atoms in the lower atmosphere has been quantified.     

Surface renewal analysis for sensible and latent heat flux density

High frequency temperature measurements were recorded at five heights and surface renewal (SR) analysis was used to estimate sensible heat flux density (H) over 0.1 m tall grass. Traces of the temperature data showed ramp-like structures, and the mean amplitude and duration of these ramps were used to calculate H using structure functions. Data were compared with H values measured with a sonic anemometer. Latent heat flux density (E) was calculated using an energy balance and the results were compared with E computed from the sonic anemometer data. SR analysis provided good estimates of H for data recorded at all heights but the canopy top and at the highest measurement level, which was above the fully adjusted boundary layer.     

Modelling of the vertical fluxes of nitric acid,ammonia, and ammonium nitrate

Results from numerical investigations regarding the exchange of HNO₃, NH₃, and NH₄NO₃ between the atmosphere and the biosphere are presented. The investigations were performed with a modified inferential method which is based on the generally accepted micrometeorological ideas of the transfer of momentum, sensible heat and matter near the Earth's surface and the chemical reactions among these nitrogen compounds. This modified inferential method calculates the micrometeorological quantities (such as the friction velocity and the fluxes of sensible and latent heat), the height-invariant fluxes of the composed chemically conservative trace species with group concentrationsc ₁=[HNO₃]+[NH₄NO₃] (total nitrate),c ₂=[NH₃]+[NH₄NO₃] (total ammonia), andc ₃=[HNO₃]-[NH₃] as well as the fluxes of the individual nitrogen compounds. The parameterization of the fluxes is based on the flux-gradient relationships in the turbulent region of the atmospheric surface layer. The modified inferential method requires only the data of wind velocity, temperature, humidity and concentrations (HNO₃, NH₃, and NH₄NO₃) measured at a reference height by stations of a monitoring network.     

A dynamic box model of bioactive elements in the southern Taiwan Strait

A dynamic box model was applied to study the characteristics of biogeochemical cycling of PO_4-P,NO_3-N,AOU,POC and PON in the southern Taiwan Strait region based on field data of the"Minnan Taiwan Bank Fishing Ground Upwelling Ecosystem Study" during the period of Dec.1987-Nov.1988.According to the unique hydrological and topographical features of the region,six boxesand three layers were considered in the model.The variation rates and fluxes of elements induced by hor-izontal current,upwelling,by diffusion,sinking of particles and biogeochemical processes were estimatedrespectively.Results further confirmed that upwellings had important effects in this region.Thenearshore upwelling areas had net input fluxes of nutrients brought by upwelling water,also had high de-pletion rates of nutrients and production rates of particulate organic matter and dissolved oxygen.Theabnormal net production of nutrients in the middle layer(10-30m) indicated the important role of bacte-ria in this high production region.Th     

Seasonal variation of atmospheric dimethylsulfide at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean

Daily measurements of atmospheric concentrations of dimethylsulfide (DMS) were carried out for two years in a marine site at remote area: the Amsterdam Island (37°50S–77°31E) located in the southern Indian Ocean. DMS concentrations were also measured in seawater. A seasonal variation is observed for both DMS in the atmosphere and in the sea-surface. The monthly averages of DMS concentrations in the surface coastal seawater and in the atmosphere ranged, respectively, from 0.3 to 2.0 nmol l^-1 and from 1.4 to 11.3 nmol m^-3 (34 to 274 pptv), with the highest values in summer. The monthly variation of sea-to-air flux of DMS from the southern Indian Ocean ranges from 0.7 to 4.4 mol m^-2 d^-1. A factor of 2.3 is observed between summer and winter with mean DMS fluxes of 3.0 and 1.3 mol m^-2 d^-1, respectively.     

The ＂CO2-rich gas vents＂ of Mt. Amiata volcano （Tuscany, Central Italy）： Geochemistry,genetic mechanism and hazard evaluation

Mt. Amiata （Southern Tuscany, Central Italy） is an extinct Quaternary volcano located in an area still marked by high heat-flow that is caused by deep seated （6-10 km） hot masses related to Pliocene magmatic activity. The anomalous geothermal gradient gives rise, within the Mesozoic limestone formation （Tuscan series）, to geothermal systems that fed the Ca-SO4 thermal springs characterizing this area. Besides of thermal fluids, several cold, dry CO2-rich gas emissions seep out on the NE flank of the volcano. These gas vents mostly consist of large sub-circular craters at variable depth and diameter （5-15 m and 10-50 m, respectively）, and represent a serious hazard for the local population, as testified by the several asphyxia casualties that have been repeatedly occurred within these morphological depressions. In this work, the chemical and isotopic compositions of the Mt. Amiata ＂CO2-rich gas vents＂ and the estimation of both the CO2 flux from the soil and the CO2 distribution in air of their surroundings, has been carried out in order to： （1） assess the origin of gases, （2） recognize the mechanism of formation for these gas emissions and their relationship with local tectonics, and （3） to evaluate the CO2 hazard in the high flux emanations. The chemical composition of the gases is largely dominated by CO2 （up to 98 % by vol） and shows relatively high concentrations of N2, CH4 and H2S （up to 1.1%, 0.9% and 3.9 % by vol, respectively）. These features, coupled with the carbon and nitrogen isotopic signatures, suggest that the origin of the main gas compounds may be related to the contribution of deep （i.e., thermometamorphic processes on carbonate formations for CO2） and shallow （i.e. thermal decomposition of organic material for CH4, N2 and H2S） sources.     

Total gaseous mercury emissions from mercury-enriched soil in Guizhou, China

Guizhou is located in the Circum-Pacific Global Mercuriferous Belt, and mercury concentrations in soil in this area are enriched. In-situ total gaseous mercury （TGM） exchange fluxes between air and soil surface were intensively measured at four sampling sites in Guiyang from 21 May to 16 June, 2003, and five sites in the Lanmuchang mercury mining area in December 2002 and May 2003, respectively. The in-situ Hg flux measurement was conducted with a dynamic flux chamber （DFC） of quartz. Overall, net emissions were obtained from all sampling sites. Soil mercury concentration and solar radiation have been proved to be the two most important parameters to control mercury emissions from soil. Meanwhile, rain events can enhance mercury emission rate significantly.