人工智能在飞机颠簸预报中的应用进展及未来趋势展望

飞机颠簸对飞机运行安全及旅客舒适度具有很大危害,提高飞机颠簸的预报准确率对于减轻人员伤害和财产损失具有重要意义,且一直是航空气象研究的重点领域。随着观测手段的丰富和科学技术的进步,飞机颠簸预报也取得了长足发展。本文首先从定性预报和定量预报的角度对国内外飞机颠簸预报的主要方法,特别是人工智能(AI)方法在其中的最新应用进行了综述。在此基础上,归纳总结出AI用于飞机湍流预报存在的主要问题和未来的重点研究方向：1)飞机实况数据的开放共享以及多源湍流数据的融合构建问题;2)基于人工智能构建飞机颠簸预报模型的可解释性及物理机制问题;3)基于人工智能构建飞机颠簸的集合预报问题。最后,提出了气象领域未来第三代人工智能的发展思路。     

Sedimentary facies and paleoenvironmental interpretation of a Holocene marsh in the Gironde Estuary in France

1Introduction Since the last glacial maximum, the Holocenehas been marked by a rapid rise in sea level. After6 000 a BP, the present-day level was reached andthe rate of sea-level rise (SLR) decreased rapidly(Morzadec -Kerfourn, 1974; Kidson, 1986 ).These…     

Analysis on the effect of salinity in underwater wireless optical communication

Abstract

This article deals with the effect of salinity variation on underwater wireless optical communication (UWOC). Effect of different concentration of salt on underwater optical communication has been carried out experimentally in terms of received power at different link lengths. Based on the analysis of experimental data, a mathematical model has been proposed to describe the saline water channel. A simulation study is performed for different data rates and link lengths. It is seen that with increased salinity the attenuation is higher and the UWOC system performance degrades with higher data rate and increased link length.     

巴丹吉林沙漠北缘拐子湖流沙下垫面近地层湍流强度和陆面过程特征

利用巴丹吉林沙漠北缘拐子湖流沙下垫面2013年7、10月和2014年1、4月的湍流通量资料,计算并分析了研究区近地层湍流强度,同时针对风速分量、温度、水汽和CO₂归一化标准差随稳定度的变化关系和总体输送系数等陆面过程特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）风速各分量的湍流强度均随风速的增加逐渐减小,风速处于2 m·s^-1以下时湍流发展最为旺盛。湍流强度主要由水平方向风速分量决定,垂直方向风速的作用较小,且近中性和不稳定层结利于湍流的发展。与其他地区相比,平坦且没有建筑物的沙漠地区,机械湍流较弱,湍流强度相应较小。（2）风速各分量的归一化标准差与稳定度（z/L）均满足1/3次方函数规律,其中垂直方向风速分量的拟合曲线方程较好。（3）动量输送系数C_d具有明显的夏季高、冬季低的变化状态且各月的日变化形态均呈夜间低、日间高的循环形态。热量输送系数C_h的不同月份日变化间并没有明显的排列次序,且日出日落前后具有明显的波动。不稳定层结时,C_d和C_h均随风速的增加逐渐减小;稳定层结时,C_d和C_h均随着风速的增加逐渐上升。     

湍流度随高度的变化及其对城市宏观地形的依赖

分别构建广州主建成区垂直比例尺为1﹕2 000、1﹕1 000和1﹕500的3个建筑物模型,利用大型边界层风洞,在西北和东南两风向下,基于中性流模拟分析了复杂城市地形下湍流度随高度的变化及其对宏观地形的依赖。结果表明：风廓线指数α与不同高度的湍流度之间的关系密切,利用现有模型,根据4类粗糙度边界层和不同垂直比例尺,可确定相应的湍流度随高度变化模型的主要系数,预测精度高。城市地形下最大湍流度面发育在0~0.2 h之间狭窄的范围内。用湍流度形态指数β来表征湍流度随高度的变化,无论城市屋脊还是平坦地形,随着风程区的延伸,廓线的指数α升高,湍流度形态指数β降低。表明同一高度湍流度值具有由迎风区、丘顶区向背风区增高,沿风程逐渐增大的规律,对地形部位和风程的依赖性强,与来流翻越简单地形时的特征一致。     

Mechanism of sea ice formation based on comprehensive observation data in Liaodong Bay,China

Sea ice disaster is one of the principal natural hazards that affect some coastal areas of China,and the formation of ice cover in a wave field has important characteristics.However,analysis of the mechanism in which waves affect the thermodynamic process of sea ice is lacking,and the influence of waves is not taken into consideration in numerical models of sea ice,largely because of a lack of simultaneous observations of waves and sea ice.Using observational data of the sea ice cycle in the coastal waters of Liaodong Bay(China),we analyzed the characteristics of hydrology,meteorology,and sea ice thickness during the formation of sea ice,and explored the changes in the interrelationships among heat fluxes,waves,and sea ice under actual sea conditions.The results could provide a decision-making support as a reference to the establishment and improvement of China's early waming system to sea ice disasters,and the protection of ice drilling operations and production platform safety.     

中国物理海洋学研究70年:发展历程、学术成就概览

本文概略评述新中国成立70年来物理海洋学各分支研究领域的发展历程和若干学术成就。中国物理海洋学研究起步于海浪、潮汐、近海环流与水团,以及以风暴潮为主的海洋气象灾害的研究。随着国力的增强,研究领域不断拓展,涌现了大量具有广泛影响力的研究成果,其中包括:提出了被国际广泛采用的“普遍风浪谱”和“涌浪谱”,发展了第三代海浪数值模式;提出了“准调和分析方法”和“潮汐潮流永久预报”等潮汐潮流的分析和预报方法;发现并命名了“棉兰老潜流”,揭示了东海黑潮的多核结构及其多尺度变异机理等,系统描述了太平洋西边界流系;提出了印度尼西亚贯穿流的南海分支(或称南海贯穿流);不断完善了中国近海陆架环流系统,在南海环流、黑潮及其分支、台湾暖流、闽浙沿岸流、黄海冷水团环流、黄海暖流、渤海环流,以及陆架波方面均取得了深刻的认识;从大气桥和海洋桥两个方面对太平洋–印度洋–大西洋洋际相互作用进行了系统的总结;发展了浅海水团的研究方法,基本摸清了中国近海水团的分布和消长特征与机制,在大洋和极地水团分布及运动研究方面也做出了重要贡献;阐明了南海中尺度涡的宏观特征和生成机制,揭示了中尺度涡的三维结构,定量评估了其全球物质与能量输运能力;基本摸清了中国近海海洋锋的空间分布和季节变化特征,提出了地形、正压不稳定和斜压不稳定等锋面动力学机制;构建了“南海内波潜标观测网”,实现了对内波生成–演变–消亡全过程机理的系统认识;发展了湍流的剪切不稳定理论,提出了海流“边缘不稳定”的概念,开发了海洋湍流模式,提出了湍流混合参数化的新方法等;在海洋内部混合机制和能量来源方面取得了新的认识,并阐述了混合对海洋深层环流、营养物质输运等过程的影响;研发了全球浪–潮–流耦合模式,推出一系列海洋与气候模式;发展了可同化主要海洋观测数据的海洋数据同化系统和用于ENSO预报的耦合同化系统;建立了达到国际水准的非地转(水槽/水池)和地转(旋转平台)物理模 型实验平台;发展了ENSO预报的误差分析方法,建立了海洋和气候系统年代际变化的理论体系,揭示了中深层海洋对全球气候变化的响应;初步建成了中国近海海洋观测网;持续开展南北极调查研究;建立了台风、风暴潮、巨浪和海啸的业务化预报系统,为中国气象减灾提供保障;突破了国外的海洋技术封锁,研发了万米水深的深水水听器和海洋光学特性系列测量仪器;建立了溢油、危险化学品漂移扩散等预测模型,为伴随海洋资源开发所带来的风险事故的应急处理和预警预报提供科学支撑。文中引用的大量学术成果文献(每位第一作者优选不超过3篇)显示,经过70年的发展,中国物理海洋学研究培养了一支实力雄厚的科研队伍,这是最宝贵的成果。这支队伍必将成为中国物理海洋学研究攀登新高峰的主力军。     

海洋湍流观测技术

湍流在海洋能量和水体的交换演化中起着非常重要的作用。海洋湍流研究的发展和海洋湍流观测仪器的研发密切相关。世界上湍流观测仪器的研发起步于上世纪50年代,但是我国在湍流观测设备方面到目前为止仅仅处于起步和引进国外设备阶段。针对我国的情况,文中对海洋湍流观测的平台、探头测量原理及其数据修正、资料后处理等关键技术做一个总结性的介绍,为我国使用引进的海洋湍流设备和自主开发海洋湍流测量设备提供参考。     

Effects of salinity fluctuation amplitudes on growth, osmolarity, Na＋-K＋-ATPase activity and Hsp70 of juvenile Chinese shrimp Fenneropenaeus chinensis Osbeck

The effects of various salinity fluctuation amplitudes (2, 4, 6 and 8) on the growth, osmolarity, Na⁺-K⁺-ATPase activity and Hsp70 of juvenile Fenneropenaeus chinensis cultured in seawater with a salinity of 20 were studied. The results show that weight gain in the salinity fluctuation treatments was better than that in control; in particular, the weight gain of treatments S4 and S0, at 231.8% and 196.3%, respectively, was significantly different (P<0.05). The hemolymph osmolarity of treatments S0, S2, S4, S6 and S8 was 635.4, 630.8, 623.6, 614.4 and 600.3 mOsm/kg, respectively, and decreased with increasing salinity fluctuation amplitude. The level of Na⁺-K⁺-ATPase activity in gills of F. chinensis was higher than that in hepatopancreas, but there were no significant differences among all treatments, either in gills or hepatopancreas (P>0.05). The relative level of Hsp70 in treatment S4 was 48.4% and 40.4% higher than control in muscle and eyestalks, respectively, with the highest values being recorded under a salinity fluctuation amplitude of 4.     

Effects of Salinity Fluctuation Frequency on the Growth, Molting Rate and Hemolymph 20-Hydroxyecdysone Concentration in Juvenile Chinese shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis

This experiment was conducted to examine the effects of salinity fluctuation frequency on the growth, molting rate and hemolymph 20-hydroxyecdysone (20-HE) concentration for juvenile Fenneropenaeus chinensis with an initial wet body weight of 1.115 g±0.012 g. The salinity of the control treatment (represented by D0) was 28 throughout the experiment, whereas treatments D2,D4, D6 and D8 were subjected to different salinity fluctuation frequencies of 2, 4, 6 and 8d, respectively. The range of salinity fluctuation was 4. The salinity in treatments D2, D4, D6 and D8 was kept at 28 for 2, 4, 6 and 8d, respectively; each original salinity was decreased abruptly to salinity 24, which first lasted for another 2d and was then raised to its initial value 28. This constituted a salinity fluctuation cycle and afterwards the cycle repeated. It was found that: 1) The weight gain of shrimp in treatment D4 was 202.9% and significantly higher than that in treatment D0 (P<0.05). The molting rate in treatment D2 was the lowest, while that in treatment D6 was the highest and significantly higher than those in treatments D0 and D2 (P<0.05). 2) The hemolymph 20-HE concentration of shrimps in all treatments was at low levels and increased first gradually during the inter-molt period and then increased sharply. It reached a peak value during the pre-molt stage, and then decreased abruptly during the post-molt stage when the lowest level occurred. 3) During the post-molt stage, the hemolymph 20-HE concentration in treatment D2 was 7.47pgμL-1 and significantly higher than that in treatment D0(P<0.05). There were, however, no significant differences in hemolymph 20-HE concentration among all five treatments during the inter-molt stage (P>0.05). During the pre-molt stage, the hemolymph 20-HE concentration in treatment D6 was significantly higher than that in treatment D0(P<0.05), whereas the hemolymph 20-HE concentration in treatment D2 was significantly lower than that in other treatments (P<0.05). Adequate salinity fluctuation promoted the molting rate through increasing hemolymph 20-HE concentration at the pre-molt stage.