Quantifying Storm Tide Risk in Cairns

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)gave rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of naturalhazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. It waswidely recognised that in order to evaluate risk treatment strategies it was necessaryto `measure' the level of risk that already existed and the level of risk that would beencountered with the treatment strategy(s) in place.This paper outlines the methodology developed under the AGSO (now GeoscienceAustralia) Cities Project to quantify the risk associated with storm tide inundation. It includes the methodology for `measuring' the level of community exposure to storm tide hazards and the methodology for `measuring' community vulnerability. The Far North Queensland city of Cairns is used as the case study to demonstrate the application of these methods.     

Community Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones: Cairns, 1996–2000

This paper is a partial discussion of a four-year study that investigated the vulnerability of the people living in the Cairns region to the tropical cyclone hazard. The longitudinal case study, focussing on the Cairns Northern Beaches area, was unique in that it included a social and societal `pre-cyclone impact' evaluation of various resident communities within the region, and then two consecutive `post-cyclone impact' studies. The primary research method supported an inductive qualitative approach to the collection and analysis of survey data. Some quantitative methods were invoked to support qualitative research findings. Survey data was collected in five separate questionnaire-based social surveys that were administered between 1996 and 2000. During the study, residents experiencedthe direct impact of two land-falling tropical cyclones. In addition to this, targeted andfocussed tropical cyclone awareness education was made increasingly available withinthe community. The social and demographic attributes that influence the individual'sperception of risk and contribute to our understanding of community vulnerability were examined and evaluated. Changes in the residents' attitudes, cyclone preparednessbehaviours and willingness to respond to cyclone warnings were monitored and measured. Analysis of early survey data indicated that community residents generally had some knowledge of cyclones but a limited understanding of cyclone processes and very little direct personal experience of the cyclone hazard. Individually and collectively, residents frequently demonstrated a biased perception of the risks associated with cyclones. The resident community was shown to be fragmented, with limited support being available to individual households. Initially, residents were found to be poorly prepared for cyclones and unlikely to respond to warnings appropriately. It appeared that, in the event of a land-falling tropical cyclone impacting the area, the community was highly vulnerable to unnecessary loss of property, livelihood and – in extreme circumstances – life. By 2000, Cairns community residents were somewhat better informed about cyclones and certainly more experienced. This paper provides some insight into how cyclone experience and education may synergisticly have contributed to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of Cairns residents to the tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards.     

综合评估环境场影响的热带气旋路径客观相似预报模式

提出一个综合评估环境场影响的热带气旋路径客观相似预报模式。模式应用热带气旋参数、初始和未来环境场，构造客观的相似判据。通过定义非线性的相似指数综合评估历史热带气旋样本在多元判据下的相似程度，从而找到相似样本。应用相似样本的历史路径进行坐标变换和相似指数的权重综合，得到预报路径。模式检验和预报试验表明该模式具有预报技巧。     

江淮流域夏季严重旱涝与大气季节内振荡

利用NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料和中国气象局国家气象中心提供的中国台站降水资料,分析研究了江淮流域大范围严重旱涝的20-70天大气季节内振荡(ISO)特征。结果表明,对应江淮流域严重涝年,200hPa青藏高原北部存在ISO气旋性环流,青藏高原南部存在ISO反气旋性环流;大气ISO流型在对流层中低层850hPa主要是我国长江以南、南海和西太平洋地区为大气ISO反气旋性环流,我国长江以北到日本地区的大气ISO气旋性环流,我国江淮流域位于这两个ISO涡旋西侧偏南气流和偏北气流的交汇处;旱年反之。利用向量经验正交展开方法得到,上述大气ISO环流型分别是旱涝年大气ISO流型的第一模态,并且涝年大气ISO流型的振幅强,旱年振幅弱。进一步分析揭示,严重洪涝(干旱)年分别对应对流层中上层江淮流域及其以北的中高纬度地区有强(弱)的大气ISO活动。中高纬度地区的大气ISO在严重洪涝年向南传播,与低纬度向北传播的大气ISO在江淮流域汇合;而在严重干旱年,虽然大气ISO可向北传播,但向南的传播却很不明显。     

登陆热带气旋的大暴雨天气与一般暴雨对比分析及其雨强增幅原因的初探

本文以９０１５号热带气旋登陆后造成的省淮以南大暴雨天气为例，与８闪一般暴雨天气的热力动力条件进行对比，分析它们之间的异同点，并利用二维点尺度力学模式对地面中尺度锋区引起民环流进行模拟试验，结果表明，在热带气旋伸向东北部一条辐合线的偏北旗帜的中尺度锋区驱动扰动涡旋，在涡旋的上升部位可对大暴雨有增幅作用。     

热带森林生态系统气象观测铁塔的设计

讨论了西双版纳地区原始热带雨林和人工林气象观测铁塔的选择与设计，扼要地介绍了气象观测铁塔的塔形，结构及春功能，并提出了在高湿多雷热带雨林地区设计，安装铁塔应注意的事项及解决途径。     

STUDY ON THE AIR-SEA INTERACTION ON THE INTERANNUAL TIME SCALE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA*

In this paper we document the correlationship between sea surface temperature(SST) and low level-winds such as sea level wind and 850 hPa wind in the South China Sea(SCS) based on COADS(1958-1987) and ECMWF objective analysis data(1973-1986).Further statistical analyses tell us that there is a fixed SCS basin mode for variations both of SST and low-level winds in the region on the interannual time scale due to air-sea interactions.A simplified,coupled model that is designed following the McCreary and Anderson's(1985) model and includes the feedback between the upper ocean and the circulation of East Asian monsoon demonstrates an interannual oscillation in the coupled air-sea system,which is similar to the observations in the SCS.     

中国热带东,西部地区冬季气候的差异与橡胶树的引种

由于青藏高原的动力影响，使得西部地区冬季出现下沉气流，多日照，利于橡胶树的越冬，而东部则出现上升气流，少日照，不利越冬，又由于青藏高原大山体，冬季明显地阻挡低层空气平流，导致高原南侧的西部地区冬季降温和缓，有利橡胶树越冬，而东部地区因无高大山体阻挡，寒潮初期降温剧烈，后期低温阴雨天气持续甚久，易导致橡胶树的严重寒害。     

发展互花米草开发华南热带海滩

互花米草是禾本科多年生高秆型草本植物，原产北美洲大西洋海岸，７０年代末引入我国，本文在大量试验基础上，对互花米草在华南热带海滩的生长适应性，生物量和收获量及其在促淤造陆，改良土壤等方面作了论述，并对互花米草的抗污染作用和作为饲料，饵料等的经济作用也进行了定量分析，认为互花米草在华南热带海滩具有广阔的开发应用前景。     

The temporal and spatial characteristics of the surface air temperature variations over the Antarctic and its surrounding area

The characteristics of the spatial distribution, temporal variations trend and oscillation for the surface air temperature variations during 1957—1993 in the Antarctic and its surrounding area were analyzed. The results show that the short-time climate change in the Antarctic is complex both temporally and spatially. The Antarctic is by no means the strongest responding region to the global greenhouse effect. There is a distinguished difference in the trends of the temperature changes for the Antarctic and global mean, which could not be explained simply by the global greenhouse effect. Project supported by the National Antarctic Key Project of China (85-905).