A dipole mode at thermocline layer in the tropical Indian Ocean

Temperature data at different layers of the past 45 years were studied and we found adiploe mode in the thermocline layer (DMT): anomalously cold sea temperature off the coast of Sumatra and warm sea temperature in the western Indian Ocean. First, we analyzed the temperature and the temperature anomaly (TA) along the equatorial Indian Ocean in different layers. This shows that stronger cold and warm TA signals appeared at subsurface than at the surface in the tropical Indian O-cean. This result shows that there may be a strong dipole mode pattern in the subsurface tropical Indian Ocean. Secondly we used Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to analyze the TA at thermocline layer. The first EOF pattern was a dipole mode pattern. Finally we analyzed the correlations between DMT and surface tropical dipole mode (SDM), DMT and Nino 3 SSTA, etc. and these correlations are strong.     

Spatial and temporal variability of heat content above the thermocline in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Abstract-Heat content of the upper layer above the 20℃ isotherm in the tropical Pacific Ocean isestimated by using the sea temperature data set with a resolution 2°latitude×5°longitude (1980～1993)for the water depths (every 10 m) from 0 m to 400 m, and its temporal and spatial variabilities are an-alyzed. (1) The temporal variability indicates that the total heat in the upper layer of the equatorial Pa-cific Ocean is charcterized by the interannual variability. The time series of the equatorial heat anomaly5 months lead that of the El Nino index at the best positive lag correlation between the two, and theformer 13 months lag behind the latter at their best negative lag correlation. Therefore the equatorialheat content can be used as a better predictor than the El Nino index for a warm or cold event. In addi-tion, it is also found that less heat anomaly in the equator corresponds to the stronger warm events inthe period (1980～1993) and much more heat was accumulated in the 4 years including 1992/1     

热带气旋的云系结构对其移动影响的数值试验

应用上海台风研究所发展的东海热带气旋模式，根据热带云团的特点，设计了积云模型并叠加到台风中去，研究台风云系结构对其路径的影响。理想试验表明，只考虑温度场扰动，台风的移动偏向于密闭云区方向；而仅考虑湿度场扰动，台风的移动无固定的偏向。对9414号台风19940810的初始场，叠加积云模型的试验表明，预报路径较好地反映了其运动的特征。     

热带气旋对黄、渤海影响的统计特征分析

本文统计分析了1949—2000年共52年影响黄、渤海的热带气旋时空分布特点及ENS0、西太平洋副热带高压与影响黄、渤海的热带气旋关系。结果表明，西太平洋热带气放以四种主要路径影响黄、渤海，其影响时间、频数及强度均有不同。ENSO和西太平洋副热带高压的强度、位置将影响热带气旋对黄、渤海影响的路径和频数。     

热带大西洋年际和年代际变率的时空结构模拟

使用美国夏威夷大学发展的中等复杂程度海洋模式(IOM)在给定表面强迫条件下模拟了热带大西洋上层海洋年际和年代际变率的时空结构.利用NCEP的41a(1958～1998年)逐月平均表面资料作为强迫场,积分海洋模式41a作为控制试验,并利用模式分别做动量(风应力)通量和热量通量无异常变化的平行试验,与控制试验作比较.对3组试验模拟上层海洋变率状况的比较,并按年际和年代际时间尺度分别分析,揭示表面风应力和热通量异常对海表面温度和温跃层深度变化的影响,并比较了其影响的相对重要性.结果表明模式成功地模拟出了热带大西洋上层海洋的变率.模式模拟的海表面温度年际变化主要表现为弱ENSO型,年代际变化表现为南、北大西洋变化相反的偶极子型.在年际时间尺度上,热力强迫和动力强迫对海表温度变化都有贡献,其中赤道外海表面温度异常(SSTA)变化主要由热通量异常引起,而近赤道SSTA的变化主要由动量异常强迫引起.在年代际时间尺度上,热通量强迫的作用远比动量强迫重要.模式不仅能够模拟SST在年际和年代际时间尺度上的变率,还能够模拟温跃层深度在年际和年代际时间尺度上的变率.年际和年代际时间尺度上,温跃层深度的变率主要由动量异常决定,热通量异常强迫的贡献很小.     

"莫拉克"强热带风暴暴雨分析

本文利用天气学分析、物理量诊断、卫星云图及雷达回波分析等方法对0309号强热带风暴“莫拉克”(MORAKOT)暴雨过程进行分析研究。结果表明，在这次暴雨过程中，西南季风的发展和冷空气的侵入作用十分突出，二者共同作用，造成热带风暴“莫拉克”外围云系的增幅发展，从而促进暴雨的发生发展。850hPa较大的正涡度、700hPa较明显的垂直上升运动、以及热带低压东南侧较大的压能梯度都对暴雨的形成和发展起到一定作用。卫星云图、雷达回波图上也比较清楚地揭示这次暴雨形成和发展的演变过程。     

2003年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征分析

本文综述了2003年西北太平洋上热带气旋活动特征，并对西北太平洋副热带高压特征量及赤道东太平洋海温与常年进行比较和相关分析，从而找出2003年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征的成因。     

双涡互旋的数值模拟试验

本文应用准地转正压无辐散模式对双涡的相互作用进行了数值模拟试验。试验结果表明：（1）只考虑相对涡度平流的情况下双涡以互旋为主，而且随着初始间距的缩小，互旋越来越明显。双涡的相互作用与它们的初始间距以及它们的强度和结构有密切的关系。（2）双涡的移动加速和减速都是出现在它们移动方向改变的时刻，当移动方向向逆时针方向变化时移速减慢，否则加快。     

A three-dimensional model study on ocean dynamic response to traveling cyclone over the Huanghai Sea

On the basis of numerical simulation of the mean circulation and relevant thermal-salinity fields in June with a three-dimensional ocean model (ECOM-si), the model outputs are used as first guess of initial fields for numerical integration of the model equations and the numerical results are applied to investigating the dynamical responses of the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea (HECS) in the course of a weak land-to-sea cyclone‘s passage over the Huanghai Sea on 15-16 June 1999. Predominance of the dynamic impact of cyclone over the thermal one in June in the HECS is justified using observations and model simulations.The cyclone and its surrounding weather system, i.e,, subtropical high ridge to its south could influence current and thermal fields in the Bohai Sea, the Huanghai Sea and the northern East China Sea even though the intensity of cyclone was rather weak. The response of oceanic currents to the wind stresses driven by the cyclone and its southern subtropical high were strongly characterized by the wind drift with its extent of equivalent scale of cyclone in the horizontal and of Ekman layer in the vertical. The sea response at a given site was closely related to the transient local wind speed and direction,especially was sensitive to the local wind direction,which is demonstrated at three points locating at the southern and western Huanghai Sea and the northern East China Sea. So the sea responses at locations differed considerably from one another. Current responded to the wind stress in a simple way:directly to the wind-driven current and subsequent gradient current and slope current, etc., whereas sea temperature responded to the wind stress in two ways: directly to the cyclone-induced cooling and indirectly to water movements both in the horizontal and the vertical by the cyclone‘ s wind stress. So the sea temperature variation under the influence of cyclone was more complicate than the current. The HECS in response to the cyclone and its ambient weather system was likely to be a fast process and such a response could last at least for more than 1d. Current increased with the duration of wind stress exerted on the surface and decreased with the increasing depth. Affected by the cyclone, the maximum sea surface temperature decreased by almost 1.6℃ during the 24h cyclone.     

影响湛江的热带气旋路径、登陆地点和增水关系探讨

本文根据影响湛江的典型热带气旋和风暴潮增水资料,系统地分析了热带气旋登陆地点、路径等要素和湛江港增水的关系。结果表明,湛江港发生的增水极值时间和增水形式因热带气旋登陆地点和路径的不同而异。从动力学进一步分析也表明,湛江港的增水类型与热带气旋登陆地点和路径关系非常密切。本文最后还讨论共振现象对湛江港增水的影响。