MICROPHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTION IN TYPHOON MORAKOT (2009)

Microphysical characteristics of the raindrop size distribution(RSD)in Typhoon Morakot(2009) have been studied through the PARSIVEL disdrometer measurements at one site in Fujian province,China during the passage of the storm from 7 to 10 August 2009.The time evolution of the RSD reveals different segments of the storm.Significant difference was observed in the microphysical characteristics between the outer rainband and the eyewall;the eyewall precipitation had a broader size distribution(a smaller slope) than the outer rainband and eye region.The outer rainband and the eye region produced stratiform rains while the eyewall precipitation was convective or mixed stratiform-convective.The RSD was typically characterized by a single peak distribution and well represented by the gamma distribution.The relations between the shape(μ)and slope(Λ)of the gamma distribution and between the reflectivity(Z)and rainfall rate(R)have been investigated.Based on the NW-Dm relationships,we suggest that the stratiform rain for the outer rainband and the eye region was formed by the melting of graupel or rimed ice particles,which likely originated from the eyewall clouds.     

西北太平洋热带气旋频数及生成位置的气候变化研究进展

自20世纪70年代末期以来,西北太平洋的热带气旋在全球变暖的背景下主要发生了两种宏观的气候变化：一个是热带气旋生成频数呈现年代际减少,尤其是在东南部海域;另一个则是其生成与活动位置等总体特征有向西北偏移的趋势。本文对这两个方面的研究进展进行了概述。近些年的研究表明,垂直风切变的增强可能是夏秋季热带气旋频数减少的最主要原因,这与太平洋-印度洋海面温度变化导致的大尺度环境变化有密切联系。同样有研究认为北大西洋海面温度的多年代际振荡对近期西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的减少也非常重要。但西北太平洋西部强热带气旋的频数呈现出增加的趋势,这可能与东亚近海海面温度的显著升高有关,尽管这种变化是否可信仍有争议。近20年来,西北太平洋热带气旋活动普遍出现西北移倾向,包括生成位置和路径位置,这种变化可能受到了ENSO变异及20世纪90年代末期太平洋气候突变的调控。同时,热带环流的极向扩张又导致了热带气旋的有利环境向北扩张,因此西北太平洋热带气旋活动也出现极向迁移的趋势。     

Recent crustal horizontal movement in the Chinese mainland

IntroductionSupportedbytheNationaIClimbingProject"RecentCrustalMovementandGeodynamicResearch",acrustalmovementmonitoringnetworkdistributedinChinesemainlandhasbeenmeasuredfortWotimesinl994andl996.Thenetconsistsof22stationsthatarelocatedonsev-eralmajortectonicblocksinChinesemainland.ExceptNanchongstationwhichwasdestroyedatsometimebetWeenl994and1996andre-settledinl996,alltheother2lstationswereoccupiedfortwotimes.BasedontheresuItSobtainedfromcarefulpre-processingofGPSobservations,therecent…     

2014年2月12日于田7.3级大震对青藏东北缘地震活动的影响分析

First of all,using the GPS velocity field from campaign GPS measurements implemented by CMONC( C hina Crustal Movement Observation) a nd TEONC( C hina Tectonic Environment Observation Networks) u p to 2013, w e analyzed the background of regional crustal horizontal movement and deformation before the M S7. 3 Yutian,Xinjiang earthquake on February 12,2014. Then,by comparing this to the vertical movement from leveling measurements,we studied the crustal movement deformation and the state of strain accumulation on the northeastern edge of Qinghai-Tibetan block.Finally,we investigated the possible effects on the earthquake activity of the northeastern edge of Tibet from the M S7. 3 Yutian earthquake. The result indicates that,the M S7. 3Yutian earthquake occurred against the background of strong tectonic movement and intensive intracontinental crustal differential movement on the edges of tectonic blocks in western China,and also that it happened in the period of the strong tectonic stress field in Qinghai-Tibetan block and its edges. The sinistral strike-slip and stress transfer of the Yutian M S7. 3 earthquake may accelerate the rupture of fault segments with high strain accumulation at the northeastern edge of Qinghai-Tibetan block( especially in Qilian Mountain fault zone,and border area of Gansu,Qinghai and Sichuan provinces on the south of western Qinling).     

成都盆地南缘与新构造运动有关的河道演变及其对沉积作用影响初步探讨

本文利用2002年的ETM＋图像和该地区1：25万DEM数据,采用计算机图像处理和目视解译相结合的方法,辅以野外实测数据、历史资料进行综合分析,对该地区河道的演变特征和新构造进行详细解译。基本查清了新近系以来该地区河道的发展演变历程,岷江和青衣江都存在很大幅度的河道迁移现象,综合研究发现,河道迁移与该地区新构造运动密切相关。     

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation: Applications to stability,sensitivity, and predictability

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is a nonlinear generalization of linear singular vector (LSV) and features the largest nonlinear evolution at prediction time for the initial perturbations in a given constraint. It was proposed initially for predicting the limitation of predictability of weather or climate. Then CNOP has been applied to the studies of the problems related to predictability for weather and climate. In this paper, we focus on reviewing the recent advances of CNOP’s applications, which involves the ones of CNOP in problems of ENSO amplitude asymmetry, block onset, and the sensitivity analysis of ecosystem and ocean’s circulations, etc. Especially, CNOP has been primarily used to construct the initial perturbation fields of ensemble forecasting, and to determine the sensitive area of target observation for precipitations. These works extend CNOP’s applications to investigating the nonlinear dynamical behaviors of atmospheric or oceanic systems, even a coupled system, and studying the problem of the transition between the equilibrium states. These contributions not only attack the particular physical problems, but also show the superiority of CNOP to LSV in revealing the effect of nonlinear physical processes. Consequently, CNOP represents the optimal precursors for a weather or climate event; in predictability studies, CNOP stands for the initial error that has the largest negative effect on prediction; and in sensitivity analysis, CNOP is the most unstable (sensitive) mode. In multi-equilibrium state regime, CNOP is the initial perturbation that induces the transition between equilibriums most probably. Furthermore, CNOP has been used to construct ensemble perturbation fields in ensemble forecast studies and to identify sensitive area of target observation. CNOP theory has become more and more substantial. It is expected that CNOP also serves to improve the predictability of the realistic predictions for weather and climate events plays an increasingly important role in exploring the nonlinear dynamics of atmospheric, oceanic and coupled atmosphere-ocean system. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2006CB403606, 2007CB411800), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40830955, 40675030, 40505013), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. IAP07202), and LASG State Key Laboratory Special Fund     

Remote effects of tropical cyclone wind forcing over the western Pacific on the eastern equatorial ocean

An ocean general circulation model （OGCM） is used to demonstrate remote effects of tropical cyclone wind （TCW） forcing in the tropical Pacific. The signature of TCW forcing is explicitly extracted using a locally weighted quadratic least=squares regression （called as LOESS） method from six-hour satellite surface wind data; the extracted TCW component can then be additionally taken into account or not in ocean modeling, allowing isolation of its effects on the ocean in a clean and clear way. In this paper, seasonally varying TCW fields in year 2008 are extracted from satellite data which are prescribed as a repeated annual cycle over the western Pacific regions off the equator （poleward of 10°N/S）; two long-term OGCM experiments are performed and compared, one with the TCW forcing part included additionally and the other not. Large, persistent thermal perturbations （cooling in the mixed layer （ML） and warming in the thermocline） are induced locally in the western tropical Pacific, which are seen to spread with the mean ocean circulation pathways around the tropical basin. In particular, a remote ocean response emerges in the eastern equatorial Pacific to the prescribed off-equatorial TCW forcing, characterized by a cooling in the mixed layer and a warming in the thermocline. Heat budget analyses indicate that the vertical mixing is a dominant process responsible for the SST cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Further studies are clearly needed to demonstrate the significance of these results in a coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling context.     

1957-1996台风对中国降水的影响

台风活动中国气候的重要特点之一，它能带来大量降水并造成严重的财产损失。在一些地区，台风降水甚至可以在总降水量中占很大比例。本文目的是研究那些对中国产生影响的台风并重点关注台风对中国降水的影响。文中涉及四个方面的工作。首先，研究了影响中国台风的频率，结果表明台风影响的主要季节为5－11月，尤其以7－9月频繁；在过去40年中影响台风的频率没有明显的变化趋势。第二，对台站台风降水的气候特征分析结果显示，海南和东南沿海地区受台风的影响最大，而且长江以南大部地区每年都受到台风的影响；另外，影响区域大部分地区的台风降水在过去40年中表现出下降的趋势，但是只有东北地区南部这种趋势是显著的。第三，对台风个例的分析表明，个例降水总量和影响面积之间存在着显著的线性关系。最后，对台风造成的中国范围降水总量进行了分析，初步结果显示台风降水总量在1957－1996年间显著减少。     

不同墙体位移方式下被动土压力的颗粒流模拟

用二维颗粒流程序（PFC2D）对各种移动模式的刚性挡墙被动土压力进行了模拟。再根据已有的模型试验建立颗粒流模型,分别让刚性墙体朝土体一侧平移、绕墙体顶部转动和绕墙体底部转动,给出了这三种情况下墙后被动土压力的分布图形以及相应的竖向应力的分布图形,同时给出了墙后被动土压力随墙体位移的变化规律。最后,将计算结果与实验结果进行了对比表明,颗粒流数值模拟方法不仅使用方便,而且能较好地模拟墙后被动土压力的分布规律。     

西天山特克斯达坂晚古生代若干不整合的厘定及地质意义

地层不整合接触是研究地质发展历史及鉴定地壳运动特征和运动时期的重要依据。通过1：5万区域地质调查,在西天山特克斯达坂一带晚古生代地层中厘定出6个不整合面,证实区内乃至天山地区曾有过至少6幕褶皱运动,丰富了研究区的幕式褶皱内容。新确立了特克斯运动（东图津河组与科古琴山组之间的角度不整合）,证实了天山主褶皱幕是鄯善运动,是记录塔里木板块与准噶尔板块碰撞缝合的重要构造运动。特克斯运动等6幕褶皱运动为天山地区构造演化研究提供了更为详尽的幕式演化信息。