2004年全球重大气候事件概述

2004年全球气候持续偏暖。年初，暴雪席卷欧洲多国，美国受到罕见大雪袭击，南亚和墨西哥遭遇低温严寒。北半球夏秋季，西太平洋、大西洋热带风暴活动频繁。日本、菲律宾和美国受灾严重。年内，非洲、亚洲部分国家发生严重干旱；同时，南亚、南美洲及非洲多国暴雨致洪。年内，欧洲伊比利亚半岛、日本和澳大利亚遭遇高温热浪。     

2001年全球重大气候事件概述

全球气候仍持续偏暖。亚洲大部出现异常冷冬，许多地区遇到数十年未见的风雪严寒；美国冬季也连续遭受暴风雪袭击。东亚、南亚、中亚有西亚发生了大范围的持久干旱，南亚、东南亚夏季暴雨频繁，造成严重洪涝灾害。欧洲、非洲及南美洲的许多国家和地区降水异常偏多，导致不同程度的洪水，俄罗斯西伯利亚地区发生百年不遇的大洪水。北大西洋飓风较常年显著偏多，西北太平洋台风也给沿海地区带来严重灾害。     

影响华东地区热带气旋年频数与热带对流场的关系

利用由美国NOAA系列卫星观测的OLR资料研究了影响华东地区热带气旋年频数（记为ATC）与热带对流场的关系，结果表明两者存在密切的联系：（1）当华东地区热带气旋年频数ATC为异常偏多（少）时，ITCZ位置累积距平为正（负）值，即ITCZ位置异常偏北（南）；（2）利用OLR设计了Walker综合指数WI，该指数的强弱可以反映ATC的异常情况，即当ATC为异常偏多（少）时，walker环流圈异常强（弱）；（3）OLR距平累积量场能较好的表征ATC异常年份所对应的低纬度及中高纬地区大气环流的配置，其可以作为预测影响华东地区热带气旋年频数的强信号。     

影响我国北方的台风相似预报系统

普查建国以来影响我国北方的所有台风个例 ,建立了影响我国北方的台风详细历史资料库 ,对台风位置、形成季节、移向、天气形势等进行相似分析 ,并在MICAPS平台上 ,建立了短期和中期台风相似预报系统。     

Rates of Deglaciation during the Last Glaciation and Holocene in the Cordillera Vilcanota-Quelccaya Ice Cap Region, Southeastern Perú

Moraine chronology is combined with digital topography to model deglacial rates of paleoglacier volumes in both the Huancané Valley on the west side of the Quelccaya Ice Cap and the Upismayo Valley on the northwest side of the Cordillera Vilcanota. The fastest rates of deglaciation (39×10⁻⁵ to 114×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹ and 112×10⁻⁵ to 247×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹ for each valley, respectively) were calculated for the most recent paleoglaciers, corresponding to the last few centuries. These results are consistent with observations in the Venezuelan Andes showing high rates of deglaciation since the Little Ice Age. These rates also fall within the range of 20th century rates of deglaciation measured on the Quelccaya Ice Cap (29×10⁻⁵ to 220×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹, Brecher and Thompson, 1993; Thompson, 2000). These results imply that rates of deglaciation may fluctuate significantly over time and that high rates of deglaciation may not be exclusive to the late 20th century. Equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depressions for the ice volumes of the last glaciation modeled here were computed as 230 m for the Quelccaya Ice Cap and 170 m for the Cordillera Vilcanota. Maximum ELA depressions are lower than previously published: <500 m for the Cordillera Vilcanota and <400 m for the Quelccaya Ice Cap. These lower values could imply a topographic control over paleoglacier extent.     

华北近十年来水平运动动态与地震活动危险区的讨论

根据华北地区1999年和2001年两期高精度GPS观测结果，通过与1992，1995，1996年和1999年这几期资料的比较，发现近两年的运动与前有所不同，主要表现为：（1）阴山单元和鄂尔多斯单元之间显示为压性运动的性质，但比较微弱，它们之间的边界带上似乎有左旋走滑运动，但从整体上看并不显著。（2）晋冀鲁单元和燕山单元的整体活动性不如以前，各单元内部存在着较明显的差异运动，并山单元和晋冀鲁单元的北部存在着比较显著的东西向挤压，北京地区则表现为南北向挤压。（3）晋冀鲁单元南部与胶辽鲁苏单元的南部的趋势活动呈张性，优势运动方向为东南，这样的结果可能表明，华北目前存在着应力扰动行为，大同与天津之间的区域是受其影响最大的地区，该区有可能成为未来几年中强地震活动的一个主体地区。     

Simulation of individual particle movement in a gravel streambed

A two‐dimensional simulation model of travel distances of individual particles in a gravel‐bed river is presented. The model is based on a number of rules, which include particle size, entrainment, trajectory, distance of movement and entrapment. Particle interactions are controlled by resistance fields defined about each obstacle and critical elevation defined in the model. Resistance fields, particle dropping and critical elevation rules control particle interactions. The interaction rules cause the particles to develop pebble clusters, stone cells and transverse structures (transverse ribs). The simulated travel distances of individual particles are consistent with reported field results. Individual particle travel distances were simulated using two different models; one without interactions between the individual particles and the stationary bed and one with interactions. The case without interactions demonstrates the random nature of sediment transport, and narrow ranges of travel distances. Wider ranges of travel distances, similar to those for natural situations, were obtained for the cases with interactions. The more intense the interaction between the mobile stones and the stationary ones, the wider the range of distances of travel for a given particle size. Modelling the mean travel distance yielded a result similar to that published previously, which was based on empirical data. Well developed bed‐surface structures were obtained for relatively poorly sorted sediment with intense interactions between particles. Transverse structures developed when relatively large particles were allowed to move. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A DYNAMIC MODE FOR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FLOOD/DROUGHT IN YANGTZE RIVER VALLEY AND LOW FREQUENCY WAVE ORIGINATED FROM TROPICAL SEA AREA

According to statistic analysis on sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly features in theNorth Pacific in winters and springs prior to the summer flood/drought in the middle and lowerreaches of the Yangtze River(hereafter referred to as MLRY),a strong signal SST key area thataffects local flood/drought is put forward,that is the equatorial eastern Pacific.The response ofgeneral circulation in the Northern Hemisphere to SST anomaly in the key area is furtherinvestigated. The low frequency wave train structure of correlation between the eastern PacificSST and the height at 500 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere is also studied,which reflects thedynamic features of teleresponse of local flood/drought at extratropics to tropical SST anomaly.Through introducing SST anomaly in the strong signal area in numerical experiments,the flood inYangtze River Valley is successfully simulated and the similar wave train pattern in the flow field isobtained too.Altogether,the physical picture and dynamic mode of the flood in the Yangtze RiverValley are described in this work.     

On crustal movement in Mt. Qomolangma area

Mt. Qomolangma lies in the collision zone between the fringe of Eurasia plate and Indian plate. The crustal movement there is still very active so far. In the past three decades China carried out five geodetic campaigns in Mt. Qomolangma and its north vicinal area, independently or cooperatively with other countries, including triangulation, leveling, GPS positioning, atmospheric, astronomical and gravity measurements. On the basis of the observation results achieved in the campaigns the crustal movements in the area were studied and explored. A non-stationary phenomenon both in time and space of the crustal vertical movement in the area is found. There seems to be some relevance between the phenomenon of non-stationary in time and seismic episode in China. The phenomenon of non-stationary in space is possibly relevant to the no-homo- geneity of crustal medium and non-uniform absorption of terrestrial stress. The horizontal crustal movement in the area is in the direction of NEE at a speed of 6–7 cm per year, and the trend of strike slip movement is manifested evidently in the collision fringe of Indian plate and Qinghai-Xizang block.     

A high-resolution diatom reconstruction between 21,000 and 17,4000 14C yr BP from the southern Bolivian Altiplano (18–23°S)

A diatom study of lacustrine sediments in the southern part of the Bolivian Altiplano (Salar of Coipasa) provides a continuous record of the period 21,000–17,500 ¹⁴C yr BP. Constrained by seven AMS ¹⁴C dates, this record provides evidence that the Coipasa basin was filled by a shallow body of water during this time. Diatom/salinity and diatom/ionic composition transfer functions indicate that the lake was saline, dominated by sodium-chloride throughout all the period.A comparison with regional data shows that Lake Titicaca could not have overflowed towards the southern Bolivian Altiplano at that time. As this dry phase was not registered in Lake Coipasa, this lake was probably supplied by winter precipitation originating from the Pacific. But, recent data from the deep basin of Lake Titicaca show that the lake-level was higher during this time interval, and the question arises whether precipitation from Atlantic and Amazonia sources could have played an important role on the Altiplano during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). This hypothesis needs to match other available paleoclimatic data from the lowlands of tropical South America, where there is evidence that during the LGM, conditions were drier than today. Global climate simulations suggest a positive P-E on the Altiplano, due to a strong cooling, reducing evaporative demand more than any increase in precipitations. An increase of winter precipitation from the Pacific is in agreement with data from the Chilean coast showing a northward locations of the Westerlies during the LGM. This paleoclimatic hypothesis is also in agreement with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, which indicates weaker summer precipitation and stronger winter precipitation in the tropical areas.