A Bay–River Coupled Model for Storm Surge Prediction Along the Andhra Coast of India

The paper describes a two-dimensional bay–river coupled numerical model for storm surges along the Andhra coast of India. The effect of the Krishna and Godavari rivers on the surge development is analysed. A comparative study of the surge generated by a tropical cyclone with and without the inclusion of rivers is done in detail. Three cyclones that struck the Andhra coast in November 1977, May 1990 and November 1996 were used for the simulation studies. It is found that the idealized model without a river overestimates the sea-level elevation as compared to a more realistic bay–river coupled model. The temporal variation of surge values at the mouth of the rivers is also studied for all three cyclone cases. It is found that the effect of the presence of rivers depends on the strength of the cyclone, its point of landfall and the location of the rivers with respect to the landfall point.     

Driving forces of tropical deforestation: The role of remote sensing and spatial models

Remote sensing technologies are increasingly used to monitor landscape change in many parts of the world. While the availability of extensive and timely imagery from various satellite sensors can aid in identifying the rates and patterns of deforestation, modelling techniques can evaluate the socioeconomic and biophysical forces driving deforestation processes. This paper briefly reviews some emerging spatial methodologies aimed at identifying driving forces of land use change and applies one such methodology to understand deforestation in Mexico. Satellite image classification, change analysis and econometric modelling are used to identify the rates, hotspots and drivers of deforestation in a case study of the southern Yucatán peninsular region, an enumerated global hotspot of biodiversity and tropical deforestation. In particular, the relative roles of biophysical and socioeconomic factors in driving regional deforestation rates are evaluated. Such methodological approaches can be applied to other regions of the forested tropics and contribute insights to conservation planning and policy.     

Deformability characteristics of brazilian laterites

This paper summarizes the resilient and permanent deformation characteristics of laterite gravels, determined by cyclic loading in triaxial tests of compacted specimens. A study of laterite pavements was carried out on eight paved road sections in the state of Mato Grosso. Also reported is the influence of fine sand admixture, specimen size and soaking in two laterite samples from Roraima and Rondônia in the North of Brazil. The experimental relationships of resilient moduli against applied stresses are interpreted empirically for models what may be incorporated in a structural analysis of full depth of laterite pavement.     

青藏高原清水河多年冻土区铁路路基沉降变形特征研究

通过埋设在青藏铁路路基中两个断面内的6条沉降观测管3 a来的地基沉降变形资料,研究了高原多年冻土区铁路路基的沉降变形特征,分析了填筑铁路路基对下伏多年冻土融化变形的影响。研究表明,由于受到填筑路基时赋存在路基填料内的热量的影响,铁路路基下伏多年冻土上限在施工初期会有一个明显的下移沉降,铁路路基也随之有一个较大幅度的工后下沉变动,随着时间的推移,路基下降速率会逐渐下降,但在短时间内不会停止下来,而且由于太阳辐射和路基边坡形状的影响,路基向阳面与背阴面的变形有较大的差别,且在近南北向展布的路基上表现最为明显。     

库车坳陷侏罗系煤成气动力学模拟研究

应用黄金管—高压釜封闭体系热模拟实验与GC、GC-IRMS分析技术,结合KINETICS专用软件,对库车坳陷侏罗系煤成气进行了动力学模拟研究。库车坳陷侏罗系煤具有高的产气性,在高演化阶段主要产甲烷气;侏罗系煤热解气甲烷碳同位素为-36‰～-25‰,乙烷碳同位素为-28‰～-16‰;甲烷、C2-C5气态烃的生成活化能分别为(47～64k)calm/ol、(55～72k)calm/ol,频率因子各为5.265×1013s-1、5.388×1018s-1。在此基础上,进一步探讨了克拉2气田天然气的成因。研究认为,克拉2气田天然气属阶段捕获的煤成气,主要聚集了5～1Ma时期的天然气,其成熟度Ro分布范围为1.3%～2.5%。     

长江中下游夏季高温灾害机理及预测

利用我国1961-2003年夏季（6—8月）高温资料，建立长江中下游地区主要城市强高温及高温过程较完整的时间序列，探讨了该地区主要城市高温气候特征。分析该地区南京、杭州、南昌等城市夏季高温灾害机理，东亚副热带高压是造成长江中下游地区城市夏季高温的主要影响系统。在此基础上用均生函数-最佳子回归集构造预测模型，预测夏季月高温出现日数，通过42a高温资料预报检验，有较好的预测效果，值得在业务中应用。     

2004年全球重大气候事件概述

2004年全球气候持续偏暖。年初，暴雪席卷欧洲多国，美国受到罕见大雪袭击，南亚和墨西哥遭遇低温严寒。北半球夏秋季，西太平洋、大西洋热带风暴活动频繁。日本、菲律宾和美国受灾严重。年内，非洲、亚洲部分国家发生严重干旱；同时，南亚、南美洲及非洲多国暴雨致洪。年内，欧洲伊比利亚半岛、日本和澳大利亚遭遇高温热浪。     

人造热带气旋垂直结构问题初探

在人造热带气旋中引入了倾斜垂直结构，并将其用于西折后9806号热带气旋登陆路径的数值模拟。结果表明：应用该方案所得到的模拟结果优于应用正压结构的人造热带气旋方案的模拟结果要准确。因此，此类热带气旋的预报中，其初始涡旋可采用倾斜垂直结构，从而提出改进热带气旋初始涡旋的一种新思路。若对其作进一步研究、推广，则具有广阔的业务应用前景。     

2001年全球重大气候事件概述

全球气候仍持续偏暖。亚洲大部出现异常冷冬，许多地区遇到数十年未见的风雪严寒；美国冬季也连续遭受暴风雪袭击。东亚、南亚、中亚有西亚发生了大范围的持久干旱，南亚、东南亚夏季暴雨频繁，造成严重洪涝灾害。欧洲、非洲及南美洲的许多国家和地区降水异常偏多，导致不同程度的洪水，俄罗斯西伯利亚地区发生百年不遇的大洪水。北大西洋飓风较常年显著偏多，西北太平洋台风也给沿海地区带来严重灾害。