Digital mapping of coastal boulders – high-resolution data acquisition to infer past and recent transport dynamics

Coastal boulder fields provide clues to long-term frequency-magnitude patterns of coastal flooding events and have the potential to play an important role in coastal hazard assessment. Mapping boulders in the field is time and labour-intensive, and work on intertidal reef platforms, as in the present study, is physically challenging. By addressing coastal scientists who are not specialists in remote sensing, this contribution reports on the possibilities and limitations of digital applications in boulder mapping in Eastern Samar, Philippines, where recent supertyphoons Haiyan and Hagupit induced high waves, coastal flooding and boulder transport. It is demonstrated how satellite imagery of sub-metre resolution (from Pléiades and WorldView-3 imagery) enables efficient analysis of transport vectors and distances of larger boulders, reflecting variation in latitudes of both typhoon tracks and approaching angles of typhoon-generated waves. During the investigated events, boulders with a-axes of up to 8 m were clearly identified to have been shifted for up to 32 m, mostly along the seaward margin of the boulder field. It is, however, hard to keep track of smaller boulders, and the length of a-axes and b-axes including their orientation is often impossible to map with sufficient accuracy. Orthophotographs and digital surface models created through the application of an unmanned aerial vehicle and the ‘Structure from Motion’ technique provide ultra-high-resolution data, and have the potential to not only improve the results of satellite image analysis, but also those from field mapping and may significantly reduce overall time in the field. Orthophotographs permit unequivocal mapping of a-axes and b-axes including their orientation, while precise values for c-axes can be derived from the respective digital surface models. Volume of boulders is best inferred from boulder-specific Structure from Motion-based three-dimensional models. Battery power, flight speed and altitude determine the limits of the area covered, while patches shielded by the boulders are difficult to resolve. For some tasks, field mapping remains mandatory and cannot be replaced by currently available remote sensing tools: for example, sampling for rock type, density and age dating, recording of lithological separation of boulders from the underlying geological unit and of geomorphic features on a millimetre to decimetre-scale, or documentation of fine-grained sediment transport in between the boulders in supratidal settings. In terms of future events, the digital products presented here will provide a valuable reference to track boulder transport on a centimetre to decimetre-scale and to better understand the hydrodynamics of extreme-wave events on a fringing reef coastline.     

Modelling observed and future runoff from a glacierized tropical catchment (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)

Monthly runoff from the 34.3% glacierized tropical catchment of Llanganuco in the tropical Cordillera Blanca, Perú, is successfully simulated and compared with a measured 44 year time series. In the investigation area, the climate is characterized by all-year round homogenous temperature conditions and a strong variability in air humidity and moisture content of the atmosphere. Thus, contrary to the mid latitudes, the seasonal variation in glacier melt strongly depends on moisture-related variables, rather than on air temperature. The here presented ITGG-2.0-R model aims for these requirements. The lack of moisture-related input data other than precipitation demands for an intermediate calibration step. Net shortwave radiation, the emissivity of the atmosphere and a sublimation/melt ratio are related to precipitation amounts. Runoff is well simulated and correlates with the measured record with r² = 0.76. Seasonally obtained r² are only slightly smaller. On a long-term, the cumulative deviation is minor, and the mean annual cycle of runoff is reproduced rather well (r² = 0.99). Based on four different IPCC climate change scenarios, future runoff is simulated. All runoff scenarios are modelled for the respective steady-state glacier extent. This leads to a reduction in the glacier size and a decreased amount of glacier melt. On the other hand, direct runoff increases due to larger glacier free areas. Consequently, mean annual runoff remains almost unchanged, but the seasonality intensifies considerably with more runoff during the wet and less runoff during the dry season.     

Interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity along the Pacific coast of North America

The interannual variability of near-coastal eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones is described using a data set of cyclone tracks constructed from U.S. and Mexican oceanic and atmospheric reports for the period 1951-2006. Near-coastal cyclone counts are enumerated monthly, allowing us to distinguish interannual variability during different phases of the May-November tropical cyclone season. In these data more tropical cyclones affect the Pacific coast in May-July, the early months of the tropical cyclone season, during La Niña years, when equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are anomalously cool, than during El Niño years. The difference in early season cyclone counts between La Niña and El Niño years was particularly pronounced during the mid-twentieth century epoch when cool equatorial temperatures were enhanced as described by an index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Composite maps from years with high and low near-coastal cyclone counts show that the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are consistent with preferential steering of tropical cyclones northeastward toward the west coast of Mexico.     

CLIMATIC ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS OF THE TROPICAL CONVECTION IN WESTERN PACIFIC ON WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH’S SHORT-TERM SCALES DURING BOREAL SUMMER*

Based on the multi-year average NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and NOAA's OLR data,the climatic characteristics of the tropical convection in tropical western Pacific and Indian Oceans as well as its relationship with western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is shown as follows:on short-term scales,the tropical convection that has significant influence on western Pacific high's latitudinal movement is located in the area of the South China Sea to the Philippines,which is the 2-day precursor prior to WPSH's latitudinal fluctuation,that is,WPSH is shifting to north 2 days after the tropical convection becomes more active,and vice versa.Moreover,the tropical convection has less effect on WPSH's longitudinal movement.     

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF INHERENT CAUSES FOR DEVIATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS

To have a clearer picture of mechanisms responsible for the deviation of tropical cyclone (to be simplified as TC hereafter) tracks, the current work assumes the TC as a circular vortex with a radius of R. A general motion equation of TC is then determined by averaging its horizontal motion equation over the sentire region of TC. In the meantime, with the moving track of TC assumed as a characteristic arc, the curvature equation is derived for the track of movement and patterns of its deviation due to TC structure and variation are discussed. The result shows that the scale, size, maximum wind speed and radius are factors causing the deviation of TC tracks. In addition, asymmetric structure of TC is also important for the deviation of tracks. The results, achieved with hypothesis, agree with facts in some cases but disagree with them in others, which are to be verified with more observations or numerical simulations.     

热带印度洋-太平洋热力异常联合模对我国夏季降水的影响

基于我国160个台站的降水资料和西太平洋副热带高压指数,利用典型相关分析和合成分析等方法,研究了热带印度洋-太平洋热力异常联合模对我国夏季降水的影响,并探讨了该联合模与西太平洋副热带高压的关系。结果表明,该联合模对我国夏季降水有一年到半年的超前影响,且以冬季联合模对次年夏季降水的影响最显著。当冬季联合模出现正异常时,次年夏季我国四川地区、长江流域、华北南部降水偏多,而华北北部和江南大部分地区降水偏少;反之亦然。进一步分析表明,冬季热带印度洋-太平洋热力异常联合模对我国夏季降水的影响可能是通过夏季西太平洋副热带高压的变动来实现的。     

滇中雨季早晚对前期热带环流异常的响应

使用云南省中部玉溪站1971—2007年逐年雨季开始期资料和同期1—5月NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均气压场、高度场及风场资料,用相关分析、诊断分析和EOF等方法研究了滇中雨季开始期对冬、春季热带环流异常变化的响应关系,并利用太平洋东部副热带高压及大西洋亚速尔高压的平均气压与印尼和孟加拉湾地区的平均气压之差,定义了滇中雨季预测指数(MYRSPI)。结果表明：滇中雨季开始期对前期热带环流的异常变化会产生较强响应,当冬、春季热带高度场异常升高(降低)和MYRSPI为负(正)距平时,初夏500 hPa西太平洋副热带高压偏强(偏弱)、偏西(偏东),滇中雨季偏晚(偏早)。统计表明,MYRSPI对滇中雨季早晚有较强的预测能力,可在实际业务中运用。     

Improving the methodology for assessing natural hazard impacts

The impacts of natural hazards such as cyclones have been conventionally measured through changes in human, social and economic capital, typically represented by stock variables such as population, built property and public infrastructure, livestock, agricultural land, etc. This paper develops an alternative approach that seeks to detect and quantify impacts as changes in flow variables. In particular, we explore whether changes in annual agricultural output, when measured at an appropriate spatial level, could be used to measure impacts associated with tropical cyclones in coastal regions of India. We believe that such an approach may have a number of benefits from a policy perspective, particularly with regard to the debate between relief versus recovery as disaster management strategies. A focus on flow variables is also likely to be more relevant and useful in developing countries; the maintenance of economic activity directly affects livelihood and is perhaps of greater importance than loss of built property or other physical capital.     

A Bay–River Coupled Model for Storm Surge Prediction Along the Andhra Coast of India

The paper describes a two-dimensional bay–river coupled numerical model for storm surges along the Andhra coast of India. The effect of the Krishna and Godavari rivers on the surge development is analysed. A comparative study of the surge generated by a tropical cyclone with and without the inclusion of rivers is done in detail. Three cyclones that struck the Andhra coast in November 1977, May 1990 and November 1996 were used for the simulation studies. It is found that the idealized model without a river overestimates the sea-level elevation as compared to a more realistic bay–river coupled model. The temporal variation of surge values at the mouth of the rivers is also studied for all three cyclone cases. It is found that the effect of the presence of rivers depends on the strength of the cyclone, its point of landfall and the location of the rivers with respect to the landfall point.     

Mineralogy and geochemical behaviour during weathering of greenstone belt under tropical dry conditions in the extreme North Cameroon (Central Africa)

Mineralogy, major, trace and rare earth elements of a weathering profile developed on tertiary greenstone belt in the extreme North Cameroon are reported. The aim of which was to investigate mineralogical evolution and element mobilization and redistribution during weathering under dry tropical climate. The weathering profile consists of four main horizons: (1) a spheroidal weathering zone constituted by a corestone–shell complex, (2) a C horizon, (3) a Bw horizon and an Ah horizon. The results indicate that nontronite, a Fe-rich smectite, is the exclusive clay mineral formed in the exfoliated shells and the C horizon. It is associated with kaolinite in the upper horizons. The coexistence of these two clay minerals induced a decrease of CEC and pH which becomes neutral. The weathering index (WI) values reveal that weathering becomes more and more intensive from the corestone up to Bw horizon, which is the most weathered horizon in the weathering profile. Mass balance calculations, using Th as immobile element, indicate that Ti is quite mobile and that Al and Fe are relatively enriched at the bottom and strongly leached at the top of the profile. Alkalis and alkaline earth elements are strong leached through out the profile, except Ca which displays similar trend as Al and Fe. The same goes for LILE (Cs, Sr), TTE (Cr, Co, Ni) and HSFE (Y, Nb, Hf). In opposite, REE are depleted at the bottom and enriched in the upper horizons, with more enrichment for LREE than for HREE. It appears that weathering of greenstone belt causes a fractionation of HREE and induces a concentration of LREEs. Ce and Eu anomalies display opposite behaviour.