Study on short-range numerical forecasting of ocean current in the East China Sea——Ⅰ Basic problems of ocean current forecasting and structure of the models

Ocean current forecasting is still in explorative stage of study. In the study, we face some problems that have not been met before. The solving of these problems has become fundamental premise for realizing the ocean current forecasting. In the present paper are discussed in depth the physical essence for such basic problems as the predictability of ocean current, the predictable currents, the dynamical basis for studying respectively the tidal current and circulation, the necessity of boundary model, the models on regions with different scales and their link. The foundations and plans to solve the problems are demonstrated. Finally a set of operational numerical forecasting system for ocean current is proposed.     

Characteristic analysis on oxygen isotopic tracer in the East China Sea and waters to east of the Ryūkyū-guntō

Samples of O isotopic tracer were mlleMed at Sections P₃,P₂₅,P_cM-t/2-E and P_CM-1/2.w in both the Fast China Sea and the area to the east of the Ryūkyū-gunto during October-November,1991.Analytical results of the δ¹⁸O are as follows: (1) In the Kuroshio area,the δ¹⁸O isolines are almost parallel to the 200 m isobath.The value of δ¹⁸O is negative and reaches minimum mt the main axis of the Kuroshio,and increases on both sides.(2) In the Taiwan Warm Current (TWC) area there is a high δ¹⁸O tongue extending to the northeast.(3) In the area near the coast,the distribution of δ¹⁸O isoline shows that the Changjiang River runoff diffuses seaward and the land-ocean isotopic effect from the nearshore to the offshore.(4) The values of δ¹⁸O are from -1.0×10^-3 to -0.5×10^-3 in the shelf.(5) There is a low mre of δ¹⁸O value(<-1.6×10^-3) at the 600 m layer in the Kuroshio area,which is quite in accord with the existence of a low salinity mre (S G 34.30) between the 600 and 800 m layers in the same area.Finally,the mrrelations of the δ¹⁸O with the salinity and temperature,the upwelling and so on are discussed.     

A pair of Langmuir cells in two laboratory tanks (II) on generation mechanism

Vertical and cross-wind profiles of mean currents were measured systematically in vertical cross-sections of two wind-wave tanks with aspect ratios of order one to study the secondary flow in the tanks. A pair of Langmuir cells turned out to be driven by a close combination of the pressure gradient along the tank and the side-wall effects. That is, part of the adverse pressure gradient produced a parabolic cross-wind profile with the smallest downwind current at the centerline and the largest current along the two sidewalls. As a result, upwelling occurred in the center zone where the return flow was strongest, probably because of the entrainment action of the wind-driven current. In order to compensate for this upwelling, downwelling occurred along the two side-walls from the flow continuity. The resulting vertical circulation formed a pair of Langmuir circulations across the span and served to maintain the parabolic profile formed by the pressure gradient. A positive feedback mechanism is thus found between the primary and secondary circulations through upwelling of the return flow in the center zone. Vertical shears of the span-averaged downwind current measured in two tanks were found to be systematically different from each other. This difference seems to depend on the magnitude of the advective Reynolds stresses in the two tanks.     

东海台风出现次数以及在我省沿海登陆的分析与预测

根据３７年（１９５３～１９８９年）的有关气象资料分析表明,浙北地区当年３月温度,上年４～６月降水量,秋、冬季干湿度和年积温与当年东海热带气旋（指强度达到热带风暴以上的热带气旋以下统称台风）出现次数之间有着密切的相关性。在此基础上进一步分析了前期一些气象要素与登陆台风之间的关系,并由此分别建立预报东海台风出现多寡和台风是否登陆的判别式。从其拟合和试报结果来看,效果令人满意。     

Estimate of contribution of near-inertial waves to the velocity shear in the Bay of Bengal based on mooring observations from 2013 to 2014

Near-inertial motions contribute most of the velocity shear in the upper ocean. In the Bay of Bengal (BoB), the annual-mean energy flux from the wind to near-in...     

Intra-seasonal variability of the abyssal currents in COMRA’s contract area in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone

In this paper, the intra-seasonal variability of the abyssal currents in the China Ocean Mineral Resources Association (COMRA) polymetallic nodule contact area, located in the western part of the Clarion and Clipperton Fraction Zone in the tropical East Pacific, is investigated using direct observations from subsurface mooring instruments as well as sea-surface height data and reanalysis products. Mooring observations were conducted from September 13, 2017 to August 15, 2018 in the COMRA contact area (10°N, 154°W). The results were as follows: (1) At depths below 200 m, the kinetic energy of intra-seasonal variability (20?100 d) accounts for more than 40% of the overall low-frequency variability, while the ratio reaches more than 50% below 2 000 m. (2) At depths below 200 m, currents show a synchronous oscillation with a characteristic time scale of 30 d, lasting from October to the following January; the energy of the 30-d oscillation increases with depth until the layer of approximately 4 616 m, and the maximum velocity is approximately 10 cm/s. (3) The 30-d oscillation of deep currents is correlated with the tropical instability waves in the upper ocean.     

大西洋经向翻转环流对岁差响应的气候背景依赖性

大西洋经向翻转环流（Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,AMOC）是气候系统重要的组成部分,其强度变化可直接影响南北半球的热量分配,厘清其变化机理对全球变暖背景下的未来预估至关重要。海洋沉积物记录发现,在晚更新世,AMOC的变化与地球岁差周期有紧密联系,但其物理机理尚不清楚。本文利用海洋−大气耦合气候模型—COSMOS（ECHAM5/JSBACH/MPIOM）模型,通过敏感试验,分析在冰盛期冷期和间冰期暖期气候背景下,AMOC对地球岁差变化的响应机理。结果表明：岁差降低引起的北半球夏季太阳辐射增强,会导致间冰期暖期背景下的AMOC显著减弱,但对冰盛期AMOC的影响并不明显。通过进一步分析发现,在间冰期暖期,夏季太阳辐射增强,造成高低纬大西洋海表的升温,同时促进北大西洋高纬度地区的局地降水,两者导致北大西洋表层海水密度降低,共同削弱大西洋深层水生成。而在冰盛期冷期,大西洋高低纬度地区的响应对AMOC的影响反向—副热带升温触发的海盆尺度低压异常,通过其南侧的西风异常削弱大西洋向太平洋的水汽输送,导致净降水增多,海表盐度下降;同时,高纬度升温造成的海冰减少,促进了海洋热丧失,海表失热变重,有利于大西洋深层水的生成,最终两者的共同作用导致AMOC对岁差变化的响应偏弱。本文系统揭示了不同气候背景下,岁差尺度AMOC变化的控制机理,对理解晚更新世AMOC重建记录中持续存在的岁差周期具有重要启示意义。     

一次西南印度洋热带气旋过程发展机制的数值研究

本文利用尽可能多的观测资料和WRF-3.4.1模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)对2012年1月19日至28日发生在西南印度洋上空的1次强热带气旋进行了研究,并分析其时空结构和发展机制。对该热带气旋的移动路径、强度及内部结构的数值模拟结果与实际符合较好。分析表明,感热和凝结潜热贯串于热带气旋发展的整个过程,其中感热对气旋发展的影响较弱,凝结潜热是气旋发展的主要能量来源,CISK机制可解释该热带气旋的发展过程。     

Review of recent findings on the water masses and circulation in the East Sea (Sea of Japan)

Recent findings on water masses, biogeochemical tracers, deep currents and basin-scale circulation in the East/Japan Sea, and numerical modeling of its circulation are reviewed. Warming continues up to 2007 despite an episode of bottom water formation in the winter of 2000–2001. Water masses have definitely changed since the 1970s and further changes are expected due to the continuation of warming. Accumulation of current data in deep waters of the East/Japan Sea reveals that the circulation in the East/Japan Sea is primarily cyclonic with sub-basin scale cyclonic and anticyclonic cells in the Ulleung Basin (Tsushima Basin). Our understanding of the circulation of intermediate water masses has been deepened through high-resolution numerical studies, and the implementation of data assimilation has had initial success. However, the East/Japan Sea is unique in terms of the fine vertical structures of physical and biogeochemical properties of cold water mass measured at the highest precision and their rapid change with the global warming, so that full understanding of the structures and their change requires in-depth process studies with continuous monitoring programs.     

A two-dimensional finite volume hydrodynamic model for coastal areas: Model development and validation

A two dimensional implicit finite volume scheme for solving the shallow-water equations is developed. The effects of the Coriolis force, surface wind stress, and waves are included. A non-uniform rectilinear forward staggered grid is used with Cartesian coordinates. The time integration is performed using the Euler implicit technique. The convective flux is treated using the deferred correction method. The viscous terms are discretized using a second order central difference approximation. The SIMPLE (Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure-Linked Equations) algorithm is used for coupling the velocity components and the water elevation gradient for the water level correction. The system of equations is solved sequentially using the Strongly Implicit Procedure (SIP). To simulate wave driven current, a phase averaged wave model is used first to simulate wave transformation and calculate radiation stresses. The performance of the developed model is validated for different sources of external forces and different combinations of boundary conditions. The validation cases include tidal circulation in a harbor and wave induced currents behind a breakwater parallel to the coastline. The model is finally applied to simulate the flow pattern in a closed artificial lagoon and along the coastline near Damietta Port located along the Northern coast of Egypt. Results of the developed model agree well with the published results for the considered cases.