2009.3.23东京成田机场坠机的气象条件分析与数值模拟

2009年3月23日美国联邦快递公司的一架飞机在东京成田机场坠毁,事故发生的原因与当时的气象条件密切相关。利用美国新一代非静力平衡中尺度数值预报模式(WRF V2.2)对该次过程进行数值模拟,着重分析事故发生前后各种物理量的水平分布和垂直配置,并诊断分析了该时段内位温平流的分布特征。结果表明,强风发生在位温平流梯度区。强冷空气影响下形成的低空水平风的垂直切变、低层强下沉速度引起的侧风切变和地面强风是造成此次事故的主要气象原因。     

长三角地区11月大雾频次变化的天气气候背景

采用1977—2006年长三角地区5个国家气候一级站的1日4次地面气象观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR相关资料,初步分析了该地区11月区域雾频次变化的天气气候背景。结果表明,长三角11月区域雾少发（多发）时,500hPa高空为较强的西北风（平直的西风）,850hPa上为强西北风（弱西北、东北风）,低层925hPa上偏北风分量较大且相对湿度较小（偏北风减小并出现偏东风分量且相对湿度较大）,海平面气压场上长三角受强冷高压控制（位于弱高压底前部均压区内）。     

干旱气候背景下塔尔湖暴雨形成机理诊断分析

利用常规气象资料和自动站资料,对2009年8月18日发生在塔尔湖地区1次暴雨过程进行分析,结果表明：⑴整个前汛期副高位置偏西,是造成巴彦淖尔市干旱的直接原因。⑵副高东退,东高西低形势建立,是塔尔湖暴雨形成的必要条件。⑶500hPa短波槽前正涡度区与700hPa暖切变区、地面暖锋切变区在阴山山脉南麓罕乌拉沟喇叭口地形上空垂直叠置,是产生塔尔湖暴雨的动力抬升条件,也是其形成的触发机制。⑷700hPa贝湖冷涡维持,西南暖涡北抬,两涡在阴山南北相遇的辐合流场建立,为塔尔湖暴雨提供了水汽和冷空气条件,也是干旱年份巴彦淖尔市暴雨预报的重要着眼点。     

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF ASYMMETRIC SPIRAL RAINBANDS AROUND THE LANDING OF TYPHOON HAITANG (2005)

By using WRF mesoscale model, this paper carries out a numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of the structural characteristics of the asymmetric spiral rain bands around the landing of Typhoon Haitang during the period of July 19 to 20, 2005. The result indicated that the two rainbands associated with the precipitation centre was mainly located northeast of the typhoon centre. The movement and intensity of the southern rainband corresponded well with the 850-hPa positive vorticity band from 0200 to 1800 UTC July 19, 2005. Under the effect of cyclonic circulation, the positive vorticity band at 850 hPa connected with a southern rain band, leading to the intensification of rainfall in the southern centre of the precipitation. The southward rainband gradually moved toward and then merges with the northward one, strengthening the rainfall in the northern centre of the precipitation. Besides, the relationship between the heavy rainfall and the divergence field of vertical shear wind in the high altitude is analyzed. Finally, the relationship is revealed between the development of the vertical component of convective vorticity vector and the rainfall near the two centres of precipitation in the low altitude.     

台风榴莲(2001)在季风槽中生成的机制探讨

利用NCEP 1°×1°分析资料、TMI海温资料、卫星云图资料对季风槽中南海台风榴莲(2001)生成机制进行了分析,揭示了大尺度环境流场、温暖洋面、中尺度对流活动对热带气旋(TC)生成的控制作用.结果表明,水平风速垂直切变的演变在一定程度上指示着TC在暖湿洋面上生成的时间,水平风速垂直切变由强向弱转变,在TC发生前18小时迅速减小到10 m/s,随后在10 m/s以下维持少变,垂直切变的变化主要反映了对流层高层环流形势的演变;在对流层中低层,季风槽的形成和加强对TC的生成有重要作用,由于热带温暖洋面作用,季风槽首先表现出有利于单体对流和带状对流发生发展的条件性对流不稳定特征,随着季风槽的加强,季风槽进一步表现出有利于中尺度扰动发生发展的正压不稳定特征;季风槽槽线南侧的低空急流的经向分布很宽广,由105°E越赤道气流和中南半岛偏西气流(其源头是索马里越赤道低空急流)汇合而成,急流的加强活动具有经向差异,由于边界层高θ_e空气辐合抬升产生两条经向距离约300 km的显著带状对流云系,槽线南侧风速分布的经向差异导致两条带状云系发生追赶,并逐步在季风槽底部槽线附近合并加强为MCC,进而导致中尺度涡旋(MCV)的产生并最终发展成为TC.分析结果还表明,为深对供应丰富对流有效位能的主要是来自台风发生区域本地南海暖洋面的地面热通量,南海暖洋面对TC生成有重要贡献.台风榴莲的生成是一个多尺度相互作用过程,主要包括涡旋对流热塔、与带状对流云系伴随的涡度带的升尺度,涡度带合并成长为MCV,以及大尺度条件对TC在季风槽中生成的时间及地点的控制作用等.     

A Study on a Heavy Rainfall Event Triggered by an Inverted Typhoon Trough in Shandong Province

A heavy rainfall event that occurred in Shandong Province in 26 28 August 2004 was caused mainly by Typhoon Acre and cold air activities related to a westerly trough. The event was triggered by an inverted typhoon trough, which was closely associated with the intensification of the low-level southeasterly flow and the northward transport of heat and momentum in the periphery of the typhoon low. A numerical simulation of this event is performed using the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5 with two-way interactive and triply-nested grids, and the structure of the inverted typhoon trough is studied. Furthermore, the formation and development mechanism of the inverted typhoon trough and a mesoscale vortex are discussed through a vorticity budget analysis. The results show that the heavy rainfall was induced by the strong convergence between the strong and weak winds within the inverted typhoon trough. Dynamic effects of the low-level jet and the diabatic heating of precipitation played an important role in the development of the inverted typhoon trough and the formation of the mesoscale vortex. The vorticity budget analysis suggests that the divergence term in the low troposphere, the horizontal advection term, and the convection term in the middle troposphere were main contributors to positive vorticity. Nonetheless, at the same pressure level, the effect of the divergence term and that of the adveetion term were opposite to each other. In the middle troposphere, the vertical transport term made a positive contribution while the tilting term made a negative contribution, and the total vorticity tendency was the net result of their counteractions. It is found that the change tendency of the relative vorticity was not uniform horizontally. A strong positive vorticity tendency occurred in the southeast of the mesoscale vortex, which is why the heavy rainfall was concentrated there. The increase of positive vorticity in the low （upper） troposphere was caused by horizontal convergence （upward transport of vorticity from the lower troposphere）. Therefore, the development of the inverted typhoon trough and the formation of the mesoscale vortex were mainly attributed to the vorticity generated in the low troposphere, and also the vertical transport of vorticity from the low and middle troposphere.     

相似路径热带气旋“海棠”(0505)和“碧利斯”(0604)暴雨对比分析

一般认为相似路径台风的影响大致相似,但实际上相似路径台风的风雨分布尤其是暴雨分布往往有很大差异,因此,对相似路径热带气旋“海棠”(0505)和“碧利斯”(0604)暴雨成因的对比分析有助于加强台风暴雨发生机制的认识和预报。“海棠”(0505)和“碧利斯”(0604)逐日降水分布对比分析表明,两者登陆前降水分布类似,而登陆后降水分布差异比较大。利用NCEP/GFS 1 °×1 °分析资料对热带气旋登陆前后天气形势、水汽通量和水汽通量散度进行诊断分析,结果表明：“海棠”(0505)和“碧利斯”(0604)登陆前引起浙闽沿海地区大降水主要是热带气旋外围偏东气流和地形共同影响下形成。“海棠”登陆后,维持在浙江东部沿海东南风急流不断输送水汽到“海棠”倒槽内引起浙东南沿海强降水,深入内陆后,降水主要由“海棠”自身环流携带的水汽辐合引起的,降水比沿海地区明显减弱;而“碧利斯”登陆后,有明显的南海季风环流输送水汽并入热带气旋南侧环流,在其南侧形成偏南风急流,使南侧水汽输送得到明显加强,造成“碧利斯”南侧水汽通量辐合,北侧水汽通量辐散,南侧降水比北侧降水强很多;深入内陆后,“碧利斯”环流仍维持并引导北方槽后弱冷空气渗透到其西南侧,使南侧降水进一步增幅。本文还探讨了包括热带气旋外核在内区域平均垂直风切变和热带气旋强降水落区的关系,结果表明：“海棠”和“碧丽斯”大暴雨落区均对应于暴雨区区域平均垂直风切矢量左侧水汽通量散度负值区。“海棠”垂直风切变矢量平行于移动路径并指向移动路径后方是造成“海棠”强降水分布在其移动路径右侧的重要原因,“碧利斯”垂直风切变矢量平行于移动路径并指向移动路径前方是造成“碧利斯”强降水分布在其移动路径左侧的重要原因。因此,利用垂直风切结合水汽输送条件可以作热带气旋大暴雨落区预报可能是一种比较有效的方法。     

塔中及相邻地区早奥陶世沉积格局新论

前人的观点认为,早奥陶世的塔里木盆地是一个统一的“大碳酸盐岩台地”,斜坡相呈马蹄形发育在古城—轮南一线。通过对塔中地区满加1井—塔中29井一线及相邻地区下—中奥陶统的岩石学、沉积学和地震地层学等方面的研究,发现这一线的下奥陶统主要由一套较深水的斜坡及海槽沉积构成,其地层厚度和地震反射特征也明显与周边地区不同,认为塔中及相邻地区在早奥陶世期间已经从早期的塔里木“大碳酸盐台地”中分化独立出来,分裂成塔中—巴楚台地、古城台地、塘南台地三块孤立台地,以塔北隔海相望。各孤立台地周缘发育台地边缘高能礁滩沉积体,呈条带状展布,主要由中高能粒屑滩组成;向内相变为台地相,发育台内滩、台内洼地、滩间海等亚相;向外进入较深水的斜坡—海槽沉积区,从而确立了塔中及相邻地区早奥陶世新的区域沉积格局。新沉积格局的确立,对于确立下奥陶统新的有利勘探区带具有重要的理论和现实意义,大大提升了研究区下奥陶统的油气勘探战略地位。     

盾构区间过站技术研究

城市地铁广泛采用盾构施工,目前城市盾构区间施工一般具有工程量小、里程短、盾构过站多、盾构调头多等特点,盾构过站是其重要组成部分。盾构过站一般场地狭小、工序繁多,合理的盾构过站,既可节省人力物力,又能保证优质高效地完成工程。结合工程实际,对盾构过站技术进行了较深入的研究。     

一次暴雪天气过程的螺旋度分析

2009年3月19—20日新疆中天山出现暴雪天气,本文采用NCEP再分析资料计算和分析了这次暴雪天气过程的850～200 hPa范围内的垂直、水平螺旋度和总螺旋度,结果表明:暴雪区上空垂直螺旋度呈上负下正分布,有利于暴雪的发生;暴雪发生在低层水平螺旋度负值中心和整层螺旋度正值中心的东南边缘;总螺旋度强弱的变化反映了暴雪天气系统的趋势。分析表明螺旋度能较好地反映新疆暴雪天气的发展、维持状况及强弱程度,并对暴雪落区的预报有一定的指示意义。