湖北交通运输大数据存储应用平台设计与实现

针对当前湖北省交通运输数据的存储管理与应用瓶颈,结合目前大数据技术的发展背景,本文基于Hadoop生态体系设计与实现了针对湖北交通运输业务的大数据存储分析平台。文中从总体架构、存储结构、扩展架构、数据接入与治理、分布式任务调度的设计实现到平台的应用场景进行了论述,并使用10年的高速公路数据与具体业务场景对平台进行了存储与效率实验。实验结果表明,相比传统关系型数据库,该平台在数据存储、查询计算方面均具有非常明显的优越性。     

Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios

At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called “high end” climate scenarios.This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios with recent advances in European flood hazard mapping. Further novelties include a threshold-based evaluation of extreme event magnitude and frequency, an alternative method to removing bias in climate projections, the latest pan-European exposure maps, and an improved flood vulnerability estimation.Estimates of population affected and direct flood damages indicate that by the end of the century the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe is projected to increase by an average 220% due to climate change only. When coherent socio-economic development pathways are included in the assessment, central estimates of population annually affected by floods range between 500,000 and 640,000 in 2050, and between 540,000 and 950,000 in 2080, as compared to 216,000 in the current climate. A larger range is foreseen in the annual flood damage, currently of 5.3 B€, which is projected to rise at 20–40 B€ in 2050 and 30–100 B€ in 2080, depending on the future economic growth.     

1948-2009年塔里木盆地空中水汽输送时空分布特征

利用1948-2009年美国NCEP/NCAR的逐月再分析资料(2.5°×2.5°),分析了塔里木地区大气中不同层次水平和垂直方向的水汽输入、输出和收支情况及其变化趋势.结果表明:1)塔里木盆地上空水平方向为水汽汇,且纬向贡献大于经向,垂直方向水汽主要由下层向中上层输送;2)水汽的水平和垂直净收支均具有季节性变化,且夏季辐合为主,冬季辐散为主;3)水汽的水平和垂直输送都表现为较一致的年际变化,且均在1970年代中后期出现了较明显的年代际突变;4)在1978年到2003年全球变暖明显的时段内,水平方向水汽净输入量呈减少趋势,垂直方向呈增加趋势.可以认为,在气候变化背景下,全球变暖加速了水循环,但同时改变了纬向的热力差异,导致塔里木盆地局地水循环的加速,以及经向水汽净输入量的减少.     

Formation and evolution of sand deserts in Xinjiang,Northwest China：Ⅰ. Provenances of desert sands

Sandy desert landscape is a geological product of arid climate and abundant sand materials supply in natural conditions, therefore the formation of sandy desert is an ideal studying object for understanding the interaction between various stratigraphic/epigenetic spheres of the earth system. However, until now, the knowledge about the provenance and formation of these deserts in Xinjiang, Central Asia is diverse and inconsistent, a systematic review is necessary. Ancient aeolian sand sediments in the internal areas of these deserts and their twin dust deposits in the Cenozoic strata surrounding the Xinjiang deserts are direct and indirect clues reflecting the provenance of sand materials and the formation and evolution of deserts. Based on the geochemical, mineralogical and isotopic evidences of desert sands and relevant deposits in the peripheral regions, this paper reviews the research progress on the development of the sandy deserts in Xinjiang, Northwest China. Many proofs proposed that desert sands in Xinjiang were mainly sourced from the ancient pluvial, alluvial and fluvial sediments and were eventually achieved because of the local sand supply. It pointed out that the settings of tectonic structure in Xinjiang had made sediments both in the Tarim Basin and the Junggar Basin being influenced greatly by regional hydrological system and aeolian processes originated from the planetary wind system of westerly, the East Asian winter monsoon and the topographical mountain-valley winds. However, the directions of transportation paths are different between the hydrological dynamics and the aeolian dynamics, which are decided by the slantwise structures of the basins tectonics and the regional atmospheric circulation routes, respectively, and have determined anisotropies of the transport pathway of these sediments delivered by different agents. This results in a geological cycle of detrital sediment transportation in the two large basins and thus largely increases the degree of sediment mixing, alternation and recycle between younger and older sediment sources, as well as the complexity and diversity of sand provenances.     

公交车辆全线运行状态的监督站牌及查询系统

针对出行者对公交车辆运行信息的需求,基于GPS技术设计了一个动态显示公交车辆位置信息的监督站牌系统,并提供公交位置信息的网络查询服务,方便出行者了解公交车辆的实时运营信息,以及对公交车辆的实时监督.系统以LabVIEW为软件开发平台对数据进行分析与处理,利用ASP.NET进行Web网页开发并与数据库交互,实现公交系统的智能运营和智能服务.通过实际验证,该方案具有可行性、实用性.     

Adaptation and pathways of change and response: A case study from Eastern Europe

There are increasing calls for conceptualizing adaptation as future pathways as a foresight tool for adaptation planning and implementation. To assist understanding of future adaptation pathways, this paper used ethnographic approaches to understand past pathways of response to major social and political change over the last seven decades in a rural Transylvanian community. The results identified five main socio-ethnic groups that had different pathways of response to key periods of change. These periods provided different constraints and opportunities, and shaped the accumulation and loss of different categories of assets for each socio-ethnic group. Findings show that adaptation is an ongoing process in which responses and decisions are patterned along multiple, socially contingent trajectories with continuities and legacies. Importantly, while the different groups had interrelated pathways, these were associated with a powerful normative pathway that was implicated in producing and reinforcing local social hierarchies. In this case, the normative pathway was a mix of practicing subsistence agriculture and small scale flexible income generation. The nuanced understanding of the change and response dynamics in the village provide important insights for anticipating responses to, and the impacts of, future change. It also highlights the need for holistic and multi-perspective approaches when developing and implementing adaptation pathways. These approaches should responsibly and carefully consider the implications of particular future paths for all concerned, but especially for those that are the most marginalized in society.     

成藏期砂岩孔隙度对油气分布的控制作用——以东营凹陷牛庄洼陷沙三中亚段岩性油藏为例

在具有相同储集砂体和相似断层输导情况下,牛庄洼陷沙三中亚段砂岩体油藏长期存在以下难以解释的现象：1）现今砂岩孔隙度分布与油气分布不一致,高孔隙砂岩不含油而低孔隙砂岩含油;2）相同物性砂岩有的含油而有的不含油,含油砂体现今物性接近,但含油级别却存在很大差异。本文从古孔隙度恢复方面分析了牛庄洼陷西部地区沙三中砂岩储层在成藏期的储集条件,并探讨了成藏期储层临界孔隙度。研究发现：1）虽然现今储层物性下限很低,部分砂岩已经致密化,但成藏期的古孔隙度分布在18%～25%范围内,远大于成藏期临界孔隙度13.9%。但由于埋藏过程的差异导致砂岩储层后期减孔幅度不同,因而现今储层物性不能反映成藏期储层物性,成藏期孔隙度高并不能代表现今孔隙度高;2）成藏期高孔隙度带与现今油气分布范围高度一致,表明在相似断层输导条件下,由于储层物性级差优势形成油气优势运移通道,导致高孔隙度带砂体含油,因此,沙三中亚段岩性油藏富集在成藏期高孔隙带中,成藏期砂岩古孔隙度是油气成藏的重要控制因素,而现今砂岩储层高孔隙带在成藏期并不一定高。牛庄洼陷西部地区沙三中亚段储层中具有高古孔隙度的砂岩仍有较大勘探潜力。     

麻江古油藏油源识别与油气运聚分析：来自油气地球化学的证据

充分考虑热演化过程中烃源岩干酪根、族组分、固体沥青及正构烷烃碳同位素相互关系及变化规律,通过地球化学分析并结合前人碳同位素及芳烃标志物研究进行综合分析,结果表明古油藏各区域储层早期均存在下寒武统黑色泥岩来源,后期来源有较大差别,麻江古背斜以南各地沥青均不同程度与中寒武统都柳江组有关,北凯里液态原油及油苗为五峰组及龙马溪组印支期成藏产物,其保存环境为储层早期成岩过程中形成的独立封闭系统。在油源识别的基础上,结合构造地质背景、油气成藏条件及流体活动规律分析,认为黔南坳陷及邻区下寒武统、都柳江组、五峰组及龙马溪组烃源岩的分布控制了该区油气富集规律,黔南海西期断裂系统与加里东运动形成的不整合面构成不同期次油气运聚的输导系统,海西期形成的一系列正断裂是麻江古油藏成藏的关键。     

长江经济带主要城市群2h出行交通圈格局特征

城市群作为城镇化高级阶段区域社会经济发展和参与国际竞争的主要空间载体,良好的交通通达性是其高质量发展的必要条件。以《交通强国建设纲要》提出的城市群2h通达目标为研究视角,以长江经济带3个国家级城市群为研究对象,选取加权平均出行时间作为测度指标并引入场强和引力模型,对比分析3个城市群所有城市与中心城市两个层级2h出行交通圈格局特征。研究发现：① 3个城市群出行交通圈均表现为从中心向外围地区呈现出由低到高连续扩大的“圈层式”空间格局特征,且长三角和成渝城市群分别形成了“>”字型和“十”字型2h出行廊道,但长江中游城市群尚未形成2h出行廊道。② 城市群中心城市2h出行交通圈的空间分布受区位条件影响较大,越接近区域几何中心则2h出行交通圈覆盖范围越大,而影响腹地受中心城市综合规模的作用明显,3个城市群各中心城市2h出行交通圈和影响腹地的空间分异显著。③ 不同城市群中心城市2h出行交通圈衔接联系水平差异显著,表现出多元的圈层叠加的经济联系格局。④ 高密度高速公路路网在提高城市群中心城市2h出行交通圈衔接联系水平中发挥重要作用,按衔接联系模式特征可将各城市群总结为多中心网络型、多中心组团型与双中心轴辐型。