Seismogeological and hydrological criteria for the New European Macroseismic Scale (MSK-92)

In 1988, an ESC Working Group Macroseismic Scales started upgrading the MSK-81 Intensity Scale. This paper presents the background and decisions made with respect to the so-called seismogeological effects. Discussion has pointed out that they cannot be treated and used in the same way as the effects on humans, objects and buildings, for many reasons. Therefore, the WG adopted the solution of using such effects as a side tool for intensity assessment, providing a comprehensive table where the experimental relations between seismogeological effects and intensity degrees - assessed by means of other effects - are presented.     

Time probabilistic evaluation of seismically induced landslide hazard in Irpinia (Southern Italy)

A recently proposed method, which incorporates the Newmark model to evaluate the earthquake-induced landslide hazard at regional scale, was applied to Irpinia, one of the most seismically active regions of Italy. The method adopts a probabilistic approach to calculate values of critical acceleration a_c representing the minimum strength required for a slope not to fail at a fixed probability level in a given time interval. Regional probabilistic hazard maps were generated for the two failure types most common in Irpinia (slump–earthflows and rock falls). The results suggest that quite moderate critical acceleration (0.05–0.08 g) could suffice to keep the slope failure probability low. However, the available data indicate that potential slide surfaces with a_c below these values could be common in Irpinia, where, perhaps in relation to particular geo-environmental conditions, a relative large number of marginally stable slopes might survive other destabilising actions and fail even on occasion of not particularly strong earthquake shaking.     

The earthquake of 6 September 2002 and the seismic history of Palermo (Northern Sicily,Italy): Implications for the seismic hazard assessment of the city

On September 6, 2002, a M_L = 5.6 earthquake, occurring some tens of kilometres offshore from the Northern Sicilian coast (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea), slightly damaged the city of Palermo and surroundings (degree 6 in the European Macroseismic Scale 1998). The macroseismic investigation of the shock and a detailed study of effects of the main earthquakes which affected Palermo in the past have been performed in order to evaluate the seismic response of the city. Moreover, the comparison of the recent event, which is instrumentally constrained, with historical earthquakes allows us to infer new insights on the seismogenic sources of the area, that seem located offshore in the Tyrrhenian sea.In the last 500 years, Palermo has never been completely destroyed but has suffered effects estimated between intensities 6 and 8 EMS-98 many times (1693, 1726, 1751, 1823, 1940, 1968, 2002). The damage scenarios of the analysed events have shown that damage distribution is strongly conditioned by soil response in the different parts of the city and by a high building vulnerability, mainly in the historical centre and in the south-eastern zone of the modern city. As a matter of fact, Palermo has always suffered greater effects than those reported for other nearby localities. The hazard assessment obtained using observed site intensities has shown that the probability of occurrence for intensity 8 (the strongest intensity observed in Palermo) exceeds 99% for 550 years, while the estimated mean return period is 152 ± 40 years. These results, in connection with building vulnerability due to the urban expansion before the introduction of seismic code, suggest that the city is exposed to a relatively high seismic risk.This paper has not been submitted elsewhere in identical or similar form, nor will it be during the first 3 months after its submission to Journal of Seismology.     

Study on the characteristics of earthquake’s impact on cities

Firstly, the impact of historical earthquakes on 34 China province-level capital cities is evaluated by using historical earthquake catalog. The distribution of affected intensity shows, about 53% of cities have even not been affected by earthquake intensity VI, and 44% of cities have been hit by earthquake intensity VII to IX. For most of the cities, occurrence frequency of affected intensity VI is usually higher than that of affected intensity larger than VI, and the value of affected intensity with maximal occurrence frequency may be very different among cities. So both the maximal affected intensity and the affected intensity with maximal occurrence frequency should be taken into account when the prevention seismic intensity needs to be determined. Secondly, considering the incompleteness of records of historical earthquakes, a method of earthquake catalog computer simulation is introduced to study the features of affected intensity of big cities. 69 county-level cities of Fujian Province are selected to be statistical objects. The statistical result shows, for different risk levels the seismic intensity changes greatly among cities, the seismic intensity of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years can be regarded as the characteristic affected intensity of city, and can be the basis of determining the city special earthquake prevention level and a proper indicator of future earthquake’s impact on cities. Foundation item: A Public Benefit Foundation of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China. Contribution No. 04FE1005, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.     

Chi-square regression for seismic strength parameter relations, and their uncertainties, with applications to an M w based earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe

A generalized chi-square regression approach to establishempirical relations between different types of seismic strengthparameters with uncertainties in all input data is presented anddiscussed in comparison with standard least-squares techniques.The chi-square technique can consider errors of individual entriesbut can also be applied when errors are not exactly known and onlyweaker quantitative constraints can be made. It can preserve thesymmetry of the derived relations and is preferred for complexregression models. Results for three types of regression modelsare presented for (1) a linear relation between M _Sand m _bfor events in the North Atlantic Ocean; (2) a quadratic relationbetween M _w and M _L forevents in central Europe; (3) linearrelations between M _L and I ₀,with logarithmic dependency ofthe focal depth, for several regions in central and northernEurope.     

Pre-instrumental earthquakes in a low-seismicity region: A reinvestigation of the macroseismic data for the 16 November 1931 events in Central Finland using statistical analysis

The earthquake in Central Finland on 16November 1931 and its aftershock the sameday are investigated. It is the strongestevent known to have occurred in this areaand thus of importance for understandingthe seismicity there. The originalmacroseismic questionnaires werere-examined using statistical analysis andtaking into account the recommendations forintensity assessments according to theEuropean Macroseismic Scale (EMS-92,-98).The data were augmented with contemporarypress reports. Test theory was applied whenpreprocessing the data, and intensityassessment was carried out by means ofcorrespondence analysis. Differentapproaches were applied to determine themacroseismic field and trace theisoseismals. Some of the practical problemsinvolve the treatment of audibleobservations. The macroseismic magnitudeswere estimated at 4.3 (±0.2) for themain shock and 3.7 (±0.2) for itslargest aftershock. Despite the smallmagnitudes, earthquake light sightings werealso reported for the events.     

Attenuation relations of Arias intensity based on the Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake data

This paper presents a derivation of attenuation relations of Arias intensity for various site conditions based on the strong-motion data recorded in the 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake. The data are from the mainshock and three large aftershocks with stations in the footwall area and in the area away from the fault. At each station, Arias intensity is computed from two horizontal acceleration time histories. The Arias intensity data are separated into four groups according to site classes assigned to recording stations. For each site class, the attenuation relation of Arias intensity is derived using a two-step regression analysis method. The attenuation relations established in this study can be used to estimate Arias intensity from a rupture of a thrust fault for sites in the footwall area or in the area away from the fault.     

太原雷达站与省局和省台之间雷达资料传送系统

多普勒雷达回波资料丰富且数据量大，为了使距离雷达站较远的省局和省台等都能及时的使用雷达资料，雷达传输非常重要。传统的软件操作烦琐。不符合业务使用的要求。为此。我们利用编程语言VB6．0编写了一个传送软件。使用简单方便，并经业务使用，效果很好。本文主要介绍太原雷达站与省局和省台之间雷达资料传送系统的开发和应用，包括它的主要技术特点，主要内容以及运行情况。     

Predicting strong motion parameters for the Chamoli earthquake of 28th March, 1999, Garhwal Himalaya, India, from simplified finite fault model

State of Uttaranchal in the northern part of India in the Garhwal Himalaya was hit by the Chamoli earthquake on 28th March, 1999 (GMT). This earthquake was recorded on a strong motion array installed in this region. The maximum peak ground acceleration of 353 cm/sec² was recorded at an accelerograph located at the Gopeshwar station at an approximate epicentral distance of 14 km. The simplified method of Midorikawa (1993) has been used to model finite fault responsible for causing the Chamoli earthquake. This method is based on the Empirical Green's Function (EGF) technique of Irikura (1986).Modifications in this method have been made to include layered earth model and transmission effects at each boundary by Joshi (2001). Rupture causing the Chamoli earthquake is placed in two structural models of the earth in this work: one is a homogeneous half space and other is the multi layered earth model. Comparison in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) is made between the simulated and actual strong motion parameters like peak acceleration and duration. It is seen that the introduction of multi layered earth system in this simplified technique is capable of significantly reducing the RMSE in observed and predicted strong motion parameters and defining the attenuation rate for peak ground acceleration of this earthquake.     

近断层地震动作用下钢筋混凝土桥墩的抗震性能

通过对满足规范延性要求的12根典型钢筋混凝土桥墩试件的线性和非线性地震反应分析，指出在近断层地震动作用下满足延性需求与延性能力比小于1.0的桥墩仍可能发生严重破坏和倒塌，若考虑桥墩的地震损伤性能，允许的延性需求与延性能力比不宜超过0.6-0.8。讨论了桥墩延性抗震设计中强度折减系数Rμ和设计基底剪力系数BSC取值问题。