Future Changes in Extreme High Temperature over China at 1.5℃-5℃ Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simulations

Extreme high temperature(EHT)events are among the most impact-related consequences related to climate change,especially for China,a nation with a large population that is vulnerable to the climate warming.Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),this study assesses future EHT changes across China at five specific global warming thresholds(1.5℃-5℃).The results indicate that global mean temperature will increase by 1.5℃/2℃ before 2030/2050 relative to pre-industrial levels(1861-1900)under three future scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5),and warming will occur faster under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5.Under SSP5-8.5,global warming will eventually exceed 5℃ by 2100,while under SSP1-2.6,it will stabilize around 2℃ after 2050.In China,most of the areas where warming exceeds global average levels will be located in Tibet and northern China(Northwest China,North China and Northeast China),covering 50%-70%of the country.Furthermore,about 0.19-0.44 billion people(accounting for 16%-41%of the national population)will experience warming above the global average.Compared to present-day(1995-2014),the warmest day(TXx)will increase most notably in northern China,while the number of warm days(TX90p)and warm spell duration indicator(WSDI)will increase most profoundly in southern China.For example,relative to the present-day,TXx will increase by 1℃-5℃ in northern China,and TX90p(WSDI)will increase by 25-150(10-80)days in southern China at 1.5℃-5℃ global warming.Compared to 2℃-5℃,limiting global warming to 1.5℃ will help avoid about 36%-87%of the EHT increases in China.     

移动轨迹数据可视化方法总结

作为移动社交网络的主体,人们移动带来的位置轨迹不仅记录了人的行为历史,也记录了人与社会的交互活动信息。移动社交网络中位置轨迹数据的分析与利用为解决城市问题提供了一种新的思路。本文概述了轨迹数据可视分析中的几种方法,总结了轨迹数据可视分析研究中存在的问题和面临的挑战。     

Adding the missing third and fourth dimensions to trajectory analysis in carbonate systems

We developed a seismic geomorphology-based procedure to enhance traditional trajectory analysis with the ability to visualize and quantify lateral variability along carbonate prograding-margin types (ramps and rimmed shelves) in 3D and 4D. This quantitative approach analysed the shelf break geometric evolution of the Oligo-Miocene carbonate clinoform system in the Browse Basin and delineated the feedback between antecedent topography and carbonate system response as controlling factor on shelf break rugosity. Our geometrical analysis identified a systematic shift in the large-scale average shelf break strike direction over a transect of 10 km from 62° to 55° in the Oligo-Miocene interval of the Browse Basin, which is likely controlled by far-field allogenic forcing from the Timor Trough collision zone. Plotting of 3D shelf break trajectories represents a convenient way to visualize the lateral variability in shelf break evolution. Shelf break trajectories that indicate contemporaneous along-strike progradation and retrogradation correlate with phases of autogenic slope system re-organization and may be a proxy for morphological stability of the shelf break. Shelf break rugosity and shelf break trajectory rugosity are not inherited parameters and antecedent topography does not dictate long-term differential movement of the shelf margin through successive depositional sequences. The autogenic carbonate system response to antecedent topography smooths high-rugosity areas by filling accommodation and maintains a relatively constant shelf break rugosity of ~150 m. Color-coding of the vertical component in the shelf break trajectory captures the creation and filling of accommodation, and highlights areas of the transect that are likely to yield inconsistent 2D sequence stratigraphic interpretations.     

基于变化轨迹分析方法的生态用地流失空间关联研究

针对现有研究割裂了生态用地流失这一基本变化过程的不足,本文基于变化轨迹分析方法,从过程完整性角度探求了京津冀城市群地区生态用地流失的空间关联特征。结果表明：① 京津冀城市群地区土地利用变化主要表现为林地、草地、水域和耕地的流失,流失面积的40%转为人工表面;② 林地、草地和水域流失的空间自相关性随空间尺度增大而增强,7 km×7 km空间尺度上3种生态用地流失空间正相关性较强,且随距离阈值增加而降低;③ 距离阈值为10 km时,林地、草地流失高发区集中分布在京津冀西北部地区,水域流失高发区集中分布在东部渤海湾附近,生态环境保护应从京津冀协同发展角度,打破区域发展不均衡,促进京津冀城市群全面发展。     

Tectono-sedimentary evolution of Jurassic–Cretaceous diapiric structures: Miravete anticline,Maestrat Basin,Spain

Integration of extensive fieldwork, remote sensing mapping and 3D models from high-quality drone photographs relates tectonics and sedimentation to define the Jurassic–early Albian diapiric evolution of the N–S Miravete anticline, the NW-SE Castel de Cabra anticline and the NW-SE Cañada Vellida ridge in the Maestrat Basin (Iberian Ranges, Spain). The pre shortening diapiric structures are defined by well-exposed and unambiguous halokinetic geometries such as hooks and flaps, salt walls and collapse normal faults. These were developed on Triassic salt-bearing deposits, previously misinterpreted because they were hidden and overprinted by the Alpine shortening. The Miravete anticline grew during the Jurassic and Early Cretaceous and was rejuvenated during Cenozoic shortening. Its evolution is separated into four halokinetic stages, including the latest Alpine compression. Regionally, the well-exposed Castel de Cabra salt anticline and Cañada Vellida salt wall confirm the widespread Jurassic and Early Cretaceous diapiric evolution of the Maestrat Basin. The NE flank of the Cañada Vellida salt wall is characterized by hook patterns and by a 500-m-long thin Upper Jurassic carbonates defining an upturned flap, inferred as the roof of the salt wall before NE-directed salt extrusion. A regional E-W cross section through the Ababuj, Miravete and Cañada-Benatanduz anticlines shows typical geometries of salt-related rift basins, partly decoupled from basement faults. These structures could form a broader diapiric region still to be investigated. In this section, the Camarillas and Fortanete minibasins displayed well-developed bowl geometries at the onset of shortening. The most active period of diapiric growth in the Maestrat Basin occurred during the Early Cretaceous, which is also recorded in the Eastern Betics, Asturias and Basque-Cantabrian basins. This period coincides with the peak of eastward drift of the Iberian microplate, with speeds of 20 mm/year. The transtensional regime is interpreted to have played a role in diapiric development.     

Parametric study for underwater blast-induced pipeline response embedded in marine sediments

Abstract

Blast response of submerged pipelines has been a research focus in recent years. In this article, a three-dimensional numerical model is established to investigate dynamic response of pipelines due to underwater explosion. The u–p approximation is integrated into finite element method (FEM) to simulate pore water effect in the seabed. Numerical continuity between hydraulic pressure in the flow field and pore pressure in the marine sediment is guaranteed to realize the blast response of submerged pipelines in ocean environment. Both fluid–structure interaction (FSI) and pipeline–seabed interaction (PSI) have been considered in the proposed model simultaneously. A comprehensive parametric study is carried out after validation of the present model with test data from underground explosion and underwater explosion, respectively. The effect of embedment depth, TNT equivalent, stand-off distance, pipeline diameter, and pipeline thickness to blast response of the submerged pipelines is investigated based on numerical results. Variation of deformation patterns and stress distribution of the pipeline with various installation and structure parameters has been illustrated and discussed to facilitate engineering practice.     

近岸海域大型水母来源与迁移路径分析——以红沿河电厂海域为例

近岸海域水母暴发可导致滨海火/核电厂取水口堵塞,对电厂安全运行造成潜在威胁。寻找水母源地及其迁移路径是水母治理的基础。本文基于拉格朗日质点追踪方法(LTRANS)建立反向追踪模型,并结合水母生态学特性对2015年6—9月聚集在红沿河电厂海域的大型水母进行溯源,获得水母源地及迁移路径,可以为螅状体栖息地寻找和水母拦截打捞提供依据,对近岸海域水母灾害防治具有重要指导意义。溯源结果表明:(1)红沿河电厂及其邻近海域的水母可能来自多个不同源区,辽东湾西部、北部及电厂南北两侧等海域的水母均有可能迁移至电厂附近;(2)受水温和环流影响,6—9月期间到达电厂附近的水母主要源区及迁移路径不同,早期出现在电厂海域的水母很可能是局地产生的,而7—9月持续的高风险水母灾害则主要取决于渤海不同源区水母的物理聚集;(3)根据水母的主要迁移路径,建议在电厂取水口约15km的海域设置一条封闭监测断面,对水母进行实时监测;在距离取水口约30km的外侧海域设置一条调查断面,于7月初至8月中旬,每5天进行一次定点拖网调查。此外,在距离电厂取水口15—20km的西南方向上,对水母进行拦截打捞可大大降低水母入侵风险。     

室内用户语义位置预测研究

位置预测技术可以提前预知用户下一时刻的位置,在基于位置的服务（Location-based Service,LBS）领域中发挥着极其重要的作用。现有的位置预测技术大多仅使用用户的地理轨迹,仅使用地理轨迹挖掘出来的用户移动模式易受地理特性的限制缺乏深层次的语义信息。本文基于某商场群体用户的室内轨迹数据和语义信息预测用户下一个时刻语义位置。语义位置预测包括停留区域识别、停留区域语义匹配、语义位置建模。在停留区域识别阶段,为减少室内停留时间不固定对停留区域识别的影响,本研究提出了一种新型的时空凝聚层次聚类算法（Spatial-Temporal Agglomerative Nesting, ST-AGNES),该算法具有思想简单、超参数少、自动生成聚类个数等优点。在语义匹配阶段,引入了吸引度规则,充分利用停留区域所有轨迹点与室内高密度的商铺名称信息做匹配。最后,采用长短型记忆神经网络模型（Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM）挖掘群体用户的语义位置模式并预测用户未来的语义位置,实验预测正确率达到61.3%。     

点模式条件下的犯罪嫌疑人时空同现模式挖掘与分析

现有时空同现模式挖掘方法因其在空间和时间频繁阈值等参数值的设定上存在困难且缺乏客观依据的问题而难以被应用到犯罪地理研究中。为此,本文通过引入时空状态同现模式和最小时空参与率等概念对现有挖掘方法进行了重新建模,并结合广义Grubbs异常值检验提出了一种点模式分布下的犯罪嫌疑人时空同现模式挖掘框架。基于该框架对中国某省部分犯罪嫌疑人的真实移动轨迹数据的实验分析结果表明,本文所提出的方法能够有效地挖掘出嫌疑人间显著的时空同现模式,且这些模式的时空分布特征不仅与犯罪活动易发生在非农业生产区这一共识基本相符,还与日常活动理论的基本观点相适应。本文拓展了时空同现模式挖掘在犯罪地理研究中的应用,研究成果对公安机关等执法部门在重点监控某些犯罪嫌疑人以及合理分配和部署警力资源方面具有重要意义。