IMPACT OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING SUMMER MONSOON

The intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) of the South China Sea(SCS, 105-120°E, 5-20°N) convection and its influences on the genesis and track of the western North Pacific(WNP) tropical cyclones(TCs) were explored, based on the daily average of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the OLR data and the western North Pacific tropical cyclone best-track data from 1979 to 2008. The mechanism of the influences of ISO on TC movement and the corresponding large-scale circulation were discussed by a trajectory model. It was found as follows.(1) During the SCS summer monsoon, the SCS convection exhibits the ISO features with active phases alternating with inactive phases. The monsoon circulation patterns are significantly different during these two phases. When the SCS convection is active(inactive), the SCS-WNP monsoon trough stretches eastward(retreats westward) due to the activity(inactivity) of SCS monsoon, and the WNP subtropical high retreats eastward(stretches westward), which enhances(suppresses) the monsoon circulation.(2) The amount of TC genesis in the active phase is much more than that in the inactive phase. A majority of TCs form west of 135 °E during the active phases but east of 135 °E in the inactive phases.(3) The TCs entering the area west of 135 °E and south of 25 °N would move straight into the SCS in the active phase, or recurve northward in the inactive phase.(4) Simulation results show that the steering flow associated with the active(inactive)phases is in favor of straight-moving(recurving) TCs. Meanwhile, the impacts of the locations of TC genesis on the characteristics of TC track cannot be ignored. TCs that occurred father westward are more likely to move straight into the SCS region.     

Geographic Patterns of Craft Breweries at the Intraurban Scale

This article examines the intraurban geography of craft breweries in ten cities across the United States. First, through an exhaustive literature review, we outline both supply- and demand-side factors that might cause craft breweries to cluster. Second, we empirically test whether these establishments tend to cluster within cities using spatial statistical techniques. Many communities are attempting to support the establishment of more craft breweries as a way to boost tourism and economic development. The findings from this article aid in this discussion by providing insights into how craft brewers locate and the factors that could influence their location decision behavior. Our findings suggest that craft brewers do in fact cluster. There are both supply and demand factors responsible. On the supply side, the collaborative environment within the industry and the artisan nature of the industry's products allows for benefits of clustering to outweigh the costs associated with this behavior. On the demand side, the emergence of “brewery districts” allows individual brewers to enjoy the reputation benefits associated with the district in terms of increased foot traffic from locals and visitors looking to sample a variety of beers.     

基于多源数据融合的山地型旅游区游客时空行为研究

随着旅游者对休闲娱乐类旅游需求的不断增加,山地型旅游区已成为最受欢迎的旅游目的地之一,利用新兴且高效的轨迹记录方式挖掘山地型旅游区游客在小尺度范围内动态的时空行为特征和制约因素,对旅游区线路设计和旅游产品优化尤为重要,也将为山地型旅游区的深化发展和科学管理提供建议。本文以湖北省恩施州恩施大峡谷为案例地,基于“六只脚”平台的GNSS轨迹及位置照片数据,结合GIS在线地图绘制的景区路网和从BigMap平台获取的POI数据,选择GNSS轨迹栅格化的概念模式解析出恩施大峡谷游客轨迹的时空行为特征,尝试探讨与其他类别旅游区时空行为特征的差异,从而总结出山地型旅游区的行为特征,并通过网络点评数据和游记文本等网络文本挖掘行为特征形成的影响因素。研究表明：(1)月份和季相层面,游客行为5月游客量处于峰值,节日效应明显,短假期效应较强;淡旺季游客行为轨迹呈非集聚性,旺季游客量主要受气候条件影响呈不稳定态势;(2)游客行为轨迹于11:00—14:00游客量达到顶峰,日内结束时间相对较早,且兴趣点选择偏向知名度高的七星寨景区;(3)空间分布特征层面,受时空因素控制,单一路径景区轨迹集中度较强;(4)不同性别...     

龙门山冲断带的隆升和川西前陆盆地的沉降

通过龙门山区和川西前陆盆地岩石样品的裂变径迹和镜质体反射率的测定和计算机模拟得出：１）松潘－甘孜褶皱带１０Ｍａ以来至少隆升了３－４ｋｍ，隆升速率最低为０．３－０．４ｍｍ／ａ；（２）龙门山逆冲推覆构造带１０Ｍａ以来至少隆升了５－６ｋｍ，隆升速率最低为０．０１６－０．０３２ｍｍ／ａ；（４）川西前陆盆地６０Ｍａ以来降升１－２ｋｍ，降升速率为０．０２８－０．０５ｍｍ／ａ；（５）１０Ｍａ以来北川－映秀－小关     

基于偏最小二乘回归的冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数的特征诊断

针对现有风暴轴指数分析大多采用相关分析等较为简单方法,难以对风暴轴指数变化有效诊断分析的问题,引入偏最小二乘回归(Partial Least Square Regression,PLS)的线性方法和核偏最小二乘回归方法(Kernel Partial Least Square Regression,KPLS),对冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数变化进行了特征诊断研究,并与传统的线性无偏最小二乘回归结果进行了试验比对。结果表明:偏最小二乘回归方法的诊断结果能够更好地反映风暴轴内部变化规律,并有效降低诊断误差。对于PNYI(北太平洋风暴轴纬度指数),采用r0. 2的因子筛选方案(r为因子与风暴轴指数的相关系数)并应用KPLS算法时,预测效果最佳;对于PNXI(北太平洋风暴轴经度指数)和PNII(北太平洋风暴轴强度指数),采用全因子方案并应用KPLS算法时,预测效果最佳。     

模糊ISODATA聚类算法在声速剖面自动分类中的应用

依据中国海浅海区30′按月历史统计声速剖面数据,通过归一化处理和Akima差值采样得到梯度剖面,建立起各方区按月归化后的声速剖面分层梯度样本集,并采用模糊ISODATA聚类算法对声速剖面进行聚类分析.通过对分类结果和类内总方差和的分析表明,聚类参数m值在1.1～2.1之间,并以最远邻系统聚类法结果为初始类中心的模糊分类效果较好.应用该方法对海洋中的声速剖面进行自动分类和区划对海洋环境的战术应用意义重大.     

BDA方案在台风路径预报中的应用

利用PSU／NCAR中尺度非静力有限区域MM5及其伴随模式,以T106分析资料为背景场,设计两种台风Bogus方案对台风的初始场进行优化,并进行了数值模拟试验。对9608号台风个例的数值模拟试验研究表明,经过优化的台风初始场较好地改进了由于海洋上资料缺乏所造成的台风中心位置不准、台风环流偏弱和台风内部结构不完整等问题,提高了台风路径预报的准确率。通过试验对比发现,BDA方案优化的初始场更合理,其台风路径预报效果优于GFDL方案。     

基于DTW与K-means算法的河北场雨及雨型分区特征研究

深入挖掘气象站点的观测降雨数据,研究区域降雨的雨型规律,对于洪涝灾害预警和减灾措施制订有重要意义.本文基于河北省2005-2017年3189个站点逐小时降雨观测数据,进行"场雨"的划定,进而提取历史上各场雨的累积雨量、时长指标.采用数据挖掘技术中的DTW相似性算法进行场雨雨型的自动归类,将场雨分成Ⅰ-Ⅶ共7种雨型,包括...     

阿尔金山北段晚新生代山体抬升的裂变径迹证据

对阿尔金山北段阿克塞 当金山口剖面的裂变径迹研究结果表明 ,该区晚新生代 8Ma左右曾发生较快速抬升。抬升年龄的展布与阿尔金左行走滑断裂带晚期活动在该区所呈现的正花状构造相吻合。     

中国煤层气有利区带综合评价

煤层气含气区带综合评价是一个多因素、多层次、多目标的决策过程,其评价过程受到诸多因素的影响,需要选择科学、简捷、实用的数学模型来分析处理这些繁杂因素。因此,根据煤层气含气区带综合评价涉及的各种因素建立评价指标体系,并结合层次分析法和灰聚类分析各自的优点,建立煤层气含气区带综合评价模型。应用层次分析法确定各指标的权系数,然后通过灰聚类分析法来进行综合评价,较好地保证了权系数的客观性和准确性,定性、定量地对煤层气含气区带进行综合评价。可以为整个煤层气行业的资源综合评价奠定基础,同时通过评价案例进行了验证。评价结果表明,全国121个煤层气含气区带中,最有利区带是沁水盆地和鄂尔多斯盆地东缘,有利区带为鄂尔多斯盆地南缘、宁武、安阳-鹤壁和松藻地区。