Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.     

空间层次聚类显著性判别的重排检验方法

同时顾及空间邻近与专题属性相似的空间层次聚类是挖掘空间分布模式的一种有效手段。空间层次聚类方法虽然可以获得多层次的聚集结构,但聚类结果显著性的统计判别依然是一个尚未解决的难题。为此,本文提出了一种空间层次聚类结果显著性的统计判别方法,用于确定空间层次聚类的停止准则,减少聚类过程对参数设置的依赖。通过试验分析与比较发现,该方法能够有效判别空间层次聚类结果的显著性和确定层次聚类合并过程的停止条件,同时具有很好的抗噪性,避免随机结构的干扰。     

The Exhumation History of North Qaidam Thrust Belt Constrained by Apatite Fission Track Thermochronology: Implication for the Evolution of the Tibetan Plateau

Determining the spatio-temporal distribution of the deformation tied to the India-Eurasian convergence and the impact of pre-existing weaknesses on the Cenozoic crustal deformation is significant for understanding how the convergence between India and Eurasia contributed to the development of the Tibetan Plateau. The exhumation history of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau was addressed in this research using a new apatite fission track (AFT) study in the North Qaidam thrust belt (NQTB). Three granite samples collected from the Qaidam Shan pluton in the north tied to the Qaidam Shan thrust, with AFT ages clustering in the Eocene to Miocene. The other thirteen samples obtained from the Luliang Shan and Yuka plutons in the south related to the Luliang Shan thrust and they have showed predominantly the Cretaceous AFT ages. Related thermal history modeling based on grain ages and track lengths indicates rapid cooling events during the Eocene-early Oligocene and since late Miocene within the Qaidam Shan, in contrast to those in the Cretaceous and since the Oligocene-Miocene in the Luliang Shan and Yuka region. The results, combined with published the Cretaceous thermochronological ages in the Qaidam Shan region, suggest that the NQTB had undergo rapid exhumation during the accretions along the southern Asian Andean-type margin prior to the India-Eurasian collision. The Cenozoic deformation initially took place in the North Qaidam thrust belt by the Eocene, which is consistent with the recent claim that the deformation of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau initiated in the Eocene as a response to continental collision between India and Eurasia. The immediate deformation responding to the collision is tentatively attributed to the pre-existing weaknesses of the lithosphere, and therefore the deformation of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau should be regarded as a boundary-condition-dependent process.     

金川铜镍矿床中新生代抬升冷却过程：来自裂变径迹的证据

本文基于热年代学理论,利用锆石和磷灰石裂变径迹测年数据及对磷灰石热史的模拟,分析探讨金川铜镍矿床在中新生代的抬升冷却过程,认为金川超基性岩体自中生代以来一直处于持续的冷却抬升阶段,且在中侏罗世和晚白垩世早期经历了两期快速的抬升冷却事件,推断此事件与青藏高原后期活动时间相对应,证明金川岩体受到该事件的远程效应波及,致使该矿床遭受了一定的改造。     

矿床保存变化研究的热年代学技术方法

成矿后矿床的保存与变化是矿床地质研究的重要组成部分,但研究程度不高,至今仍属于薄弱环节。矿床的保存与其隆升剥露密切相关,深入细致研究恢复矿区矿床的隆升和剥露历史,是揭示矿床保存变化的一种重要途径。本文重点论述研究矿床保存变化的技术方法,通过综合应用裂变径迹、(U-Th)/He、~(40)Ar-~(39)Ar年代学以及La-ICP-MS、锆石U-Pb定年等多种技术手段,研究成矿期次、构造活动期次以及二者间的联系,定量计算不同矿区、不同矿体、不同部位、不同时间的冷却隆升速率、隆升幅度、剥蚀速率和剥蚀量,探讨矿床保存深度与剥蚀量间的关系,总结不同时代、不同矿区矿床保存-变化过程,建立新的矿床地质-保存环境模型,完善矿床预测的综合示踪标志,最终预测不同矿区、不同地段隐伏矿床可能的产出深度,给出矿床可能已经被剥蚀殆尽的区段或地段,为深部找矿和区域成矿潜力评价提供依据。本文可为地质工作者的相关应用提供借鉴和手段。     

Exhumation of the Mesozoic Guojialing Granodiorite: Implication for the Preservation of Gold Deposits in the Jiaobei Terrane,China

Preservation conditions are very important for mineral systems and a suitable exhumation process is critical for endogenetic deposits, especially for those deposits formed in orogenic settings, where deposits are inclined to erode away due to strong uplift. The G uojialing batholith, intruding into the L inglong granites and the J iaodong G roup right before regional gold mineralization, is one of the most important gold ore‐hosting M esozoic intrusions in the J iaobei terrane. Gold deposits and the intrusion together underwent similar tectonothermal evolutionary processes. Exhumation and denudation process of the G uojialing granodiorite was constrained by biotite geobarometry and apatite fission track (FT ) analysis. Biotite geobarometric data yields an emplacement depth of 3.0 km, while denudation since 110 M a was calculated from the FT data at about 2.7 km. FT inverse modeling revealed a rapid uplift since ca 100 Ma. Compared with the gold ore‐forming depth which is confined between 2.5 and 9.5 km by fluid inclusion studies, great gold potential in the depths is inferred in the J iaobei terrane. Our result is consistent, to some extent, with the hypothesis of a M esozoic paleoplateau in E ast C hina.     

渤海湾盆地济阳坳陷碎屑锆石裂变径迹年龄记录的构造抬升事件

对采自渤海湾盆地东南部济阳坳陷的碎屑岩进行测年研究,目的是通过碎屑锆石裂变径迹年龄揭示源区及其抬升剥露史和构造热事件,为华北克拉通构造演化特别是元古宙构造演化提供新的热年代学约束。14件上白垩统-上新统砂岩/粉砂岩岩心样品测年结果显示,锆石裂变径迹年龄分布在308±35Ma~145±19Ma之间,且所有单颗粒锆石径迹年龄均大于其沉积年龄,表明这些锆石为碎屑锆石。除1件样品外,其余13件样品的单颗粒年龄的,可以用来识别源区及其构造抬升。未通过χ2检验的锆石二项式最佳拟合峰值年龄集中分为9组:P1(1187Ma)、P2(720~548Ma)、P3(526Ma)、P4(330~319Ma)、P5(296~274Ma)、P6(213~201Ma)、P7(195~177Ma、162Ma)、P8(134~102Ma)和P9(94Ma),加上通过χ2检验的三叠纪(230Ma),指示源区中元古代-晚白垩世经历的9期构造抬升/岩浆活动。它们分别是发生在中元古代的芹峪运动、新元古代的构造抬升(约720~575Ma)、~548Ma的蓟县运动;古生代~526Ma早寒武世末构造运动、海西期构造抬升;晚三叠世印支期挤压构造抬升、早-中侏罗世印支期弱挤压抬升、早白垩世燕山期强烈岩浆活动及晚白垩世燕山晚期的抬升。华北克拉通北缘、克拉通内部古陆和盆地内部是渤海湾盆地上白垩统-上新统的主要物源区,古生代以来剥露速率逐渐增大,古生代、三叠纪、早-中侏罗世和白垩纪分别为0.020~0.033mm/y,0.033~0.042mm/y,0.034~0.049mm/y和0.041~0.097mm/y,反映源区白垩纪构造/岩浆活动最强烈。锆石裂变径迹年龄记录的中元古代-晚白垩世构造运动对探讨华北克拉通的构造演化特别是元古宙的演化提供了年代学证据,综合分析推断华北克拉通可能参与了Rodinia超大陆的形成与裂解。     

基于DBSCAN算法的孔深测量与地层反演理论研究

论文针对地质勘探取心工况复杂、钻进深度大、事故发生率高、岩性复杂、钻进参数难以获取、无法实时掌握钻进状态的难题,在充分调研现有工况识别技术的采集原理、功能种类、现场实测的基础上,结合钻探智能化、自动化的发展方向,运用硬件与软件结合的思想,设计了实时测量钻探参数的方案。论文首次提出使用DBSCAN（针对噪声空间基于分布密度进行聚类的算法）密度聚类法分析钻进参数,结合光电编码器增量的正负性进行工况判别,以获取钻头位置以及钻孔深度。该方案可以判别钻进状态,获取钻进工艺参数,将测量数据作为所钻地层的可钻参数来反演地层。钻机的自动化、智能化研究能获取大量地层资料,有利于推进钻进工艺学发展,实现从经验钻探到智能钻探进的突破。同时,为智能钻进系统奠定基础。     

基于优化经验模态分解和聚类分析的滑坡位移智能预测研究

针对三峡库区"阶跃式"滑坡的变形特征,提出了一种新的滑坡位移预测方法。以白水河滑坡ZG118和XD-01监测点位移数据为例,采用基于软筛分停止准则的经验模态分解(SSSC-EMD)将累计位移-时间曲线和影响因子时间序列自适应地分解为多个固有模态函数(IMF),并采用K均值(K-Means)聚类法对其进行聚类累加,得到有物理含义的位移分量(趋势性位移、周期性位移以及随机性位移)和影响因子分量(高频影响因子和低频影响因子)。使用最小二乘法对趋势性位移进行拟合预测;采用果蝇优化-最小二乘支持向量机(FOA-LSSVM)模型对周期性位移和随机性位移进行预测。将各位移分量预测值进行叠加处理,实现滑坡累计位移的预测。研究结果表明,所提出的(SSSC-EMD)-K-Means-(FOA-LSSVM)模型能够预测"阶跃式"滑坡的位移变化规律,且预测精度高于传统的支持向量机回归(SVR)、最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型;并通过改变训练集长度,进行单因素分析,发现其与预测精度之间呈正相关关系。     

CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS: APPLICATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS

Considering the feature of tropical cyclones (TCs) that strong positive vorticity exists in the lower layers of troposphere, this study proposed to use vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function to find the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which was largely different from those previous studies using total energy of perturbed forecast variables. The CNOP was obtained by an ensemble-based approach. All of the sensitive areas determined by CNOP with vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function for the three cases were located over the TC core region and its vicinity. The impact of the CNOP-based adaptive observations on TC forecasts was evaluated with three cases via observational system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Results showed obvious improvements in TC intensity or track forecasts due to the CNOP-based adaptive observations, which were related to the main error source of the verification area, i.e., intensity error or location error.