病态总体最小二乘问题的谱修正迭代法

针对病态问题岭估计法及正则化方法存在破坏方程的等量关系、解是有偏估计的问题,在最小二乘谱修正迭代法的基础上,提出病态总体最小二乘问题的谱修正迭代法,并推导了总体最小二乘谱修正迭代法及其改进算法的具体公式。通过算例验证和阐明了TLS谱修正迭代法在病态问题中的有效性和易受迭代初值影响的缺点。     

稳健估计下转换参数系数矩阵定向改正的整体最小二乘

不同空间坐标系在进行坐标转换过程中,利用整体最小二乘(TLS)构建高斯-马尔科夫(Gauss-Markov)模型求解布尔莎-沃尔夫(Bursa-Wolf)七参数模型时,存在已知控制点含有粗差、模型系数阵固定常数参与残差改正的问题。通过对系数矩阵中含误差参数进行改正,并结合稳健估计的方法,对TLS进行迭代定权,解决了已知控制点粗差会对参数计算精度产生影响的问题,同时使得系数矩阵中非常数项得到精确的残差改正。本文通过实验数据证明,此方法可行并且解算精度更优。     

2008年冬季北京上空上对流层/下平流层臭氧的异常特征

利用国产GPSO3臭氧探空系统观测的大气臭氧探空资料和NCEP再分析资料,结合对天气形势、大气环流背景、高空位涡变化及对流层顶高度扰动的分析,深入研究了2008年冬季北京地区10~14 km高度范围内持续出现的臭氧次峰值及大气臭氧含量异常现象。结果表明:在2008年我国南方雪灾这一特殊时期,引起臭氧垂直分布持续出现次峰值现象及臭氧含量异常的主要原因是平流层空气强烈下沉运动及其与对流层的交换作用,而引起这种下沉运动及平流层-对流层交换则是由于该阶段特殊的天气背景,乌拉尔阻塞高压长时间维持,贝加尔湖到巴尔喀什湖一带横槽稳定存在,里海以东切断低压长期维持,造成冷空气长时间、稳定地南下影响北京上空臭氧的垂直分布。加之副热带急流的出现,北京正处于其入口区左侧,其上空有强烈的辐合下沉运动,有利于平流层空气向下输送。此次臭氧次峰值及臭氧含量异常的现象很好地说明,在冷空气天气过程的影响下,北京地区上空的平流层空气运动及其与对流层的交换十分活跃。     

Interannual and Decadal Variations of Surface Solar Radiation over East China in the First Half of the 20th Century

Variability and long-term trends of sunshine duration(SSD) and total cloud cover(TCC) were studied based on surface observations from 10 meteorological stations over East China in the first half of the 20 th century. The correlation coefficients between SSD and diurnal temperature range(DTR), as well as TCC, were analyzed. SSD experienced a significant increasing trend(0.16 h d-1 per decade) from 1908 to 1936, and the maximum brightening was in autumn(0.33 h d-1 per decade). The good agreement between the variability of SSD and DTR, supported by the correlation coefficient between them of 0.72, implies that the SSD measurements were reliable. TCC showed a decreasing trend(-0.93% per decade) and was significantly inversely related to SSD(-0.74), indicating the variation of SSD was attributable to changes in cloud cover. The result was obviously different to that since the 1960 s, when clouds could not account for the decadal trend of surface solar radiation in China.     

Atmospheric Circulation Changes in Response to an Observed Stratospheric Zonal Ozone Anomaly

Abstract

In a sensitivity study, the influence of an observed stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly on the atmospheric circulation was investigated using the Fifth Generation European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) which is a general circulation model. The model was run from 1960 to 1999 (40 years) with a mean seasonal cycle of zonally symmetric ozone. In order to isolate the induced dynamical influence of the observed zonally asymmetric part of the three-dimensional stratospheric ozone, a second run was performed for the boreal extratropics using prescribed monthly means from the 40-year reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40). The main findings are the interdecadal westward shift of the polar vortex at about 65°N and a significant increase in the number of stratospheric sudden warmings during the 1980–99 period. Under the action of zonally asymmetric ozone a decrease in the Arctic Oscillation was identified between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s. The lag correlation between the mean Arctic Oscillation at the surface and the daily stratospheric northern annular mode increased in mid-winter. Furthermore, we examined the influence of the stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly on Rossby wave breaking in the upper troposphere and found a significant westward shift of poleward Rossby wave breaking events over western Europe in the winter. By this we show that the stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly has a strong influence on the tropospheric circulation as a result of enhanced dynamical coupling processes.     

基于随机森林的中小跨径公路梁桥双柱墩地震易损性模型

为准确建立线路中小跨径梁桥桥墩的地震易损性模型,采用统计工具得到某山区高速公路桥梁双柱墩的结构、几何和材料特性的概率分布,由拉丁超立方体抽样生成桥墩属性数据集,建立了参数化的有限元模型.通过Pushover分析和基于非弹性需求谱的能力谱方法获取双柱墩的地震需求和抗震性能数据点,提出由随机森林(RF)模型建立桥墩地震易损...     

半球形多向波聚合波道振荡水柱气室优化设计

为了解决振动水柱式波浪能转换装置收集多向波浪问题,本文设计了半球形多向聚合波道振荡水柱气室结构,以适合远海单点波浪能采集和发电。在规则波正向入射条件下,基于流体仿真分析软件(FLUENT)、流体动力学连续性假设和粘性不可压缩流体动量守恒的运动方程(Navier-Stokes方程)建立半球形振荡气室和三维数值波浪水槽模型。仿真结果表明:增设气室后壁,合理设计波道开口角度实现多向迎波捕获波浪能,优化前壁形状可降低波浪触底反射带来的能量耗散,同时提高了气室内空气压强和出气口速度,有效提升波浪能俘获效率,为后续发电的二次能量转换提供高效的空气动力。     

集成于方箱防波堤的双气室振荡水柱波能装置转换效率研究

为实现建造、运行和维护等方面的资源共享,将振荡水柱(oscillating water column,简称OWC)波能转换装置与现有海工结构集成耦合,已成为目前海洋波浪能转换利用的热点问题。以集成于方箱防波堤的双气室OWC装置为研究对象,借助开源代码平台OpenFOAM和造/消波工具箱waves2Foam,采用流体体积法(VOF)捕捉自由面和6自由度(6DOF)动网格求解器模拟垂荡运动响应,对在不同规则波作用下,中墙相对宽度、中墙相对吃水对装置波能转换效率及水动力特性的影响进行数值研究。结果表明,较大的中墙相对宽度能够增强装置的波能转换效率(ξ_total(max)=73%)、降低结构物的相对垂荡位移并对装置前后气室内水柱的振荡幅度与压强变化产生影响;增加中墙相对吃水能显著提高气室在中高频波段波能提取效率(ξ_total(max)=78%),并显著拓宽气室的高效频率带宽(0.9≤ω²h/g≤2.2)。     

The total operating characteristic to measure diagnostic ability for multiple thresholds

The relative operating characteristic (ROC) is a popular statistical method to measure the association between observed and diagnosed presence of a characteristic. The diagnosis of presence or absence depends on whether the value of an index variable is above a threshold. ROC considers multiple possible thresholds. Each threshold generates a two-by-two contingency table, which contains four central entries: hits, misses, false alarms, and correct rejections. ROC reveals for each threshold only two ratios, hits/(hits + misses) and false alarms/(false alarms + correct rejections). This article introduces the total operating characteristic (TOC), which shows the total information in the contingency table for each threshold. TOC maintains desirable properties of ROC, while TOC reveals strictly more information than ROC in a manner that makes TOC more useful than ROC. We illustrate the concepts with an application to land change science.     

华北地区香河站对流层NO_2的MAX-DOAS光谱仪观测及变化特征分析

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所香河大气探测综合试验站2010年3月至2012年2月(2年)的多轴差分吸收光谱仪(MAX-DOAS)观测数据和32 m高塔常规气象资料,反演了华北地区香河站对流层NO2柱浓度,分析了该区域NO2柱浓度的季节变化特征。研究表明:可见光455~485 nm、紫外330~370 nm都可以作为MAX-DOAS工作波段很好地反演NO2;香河地区NO2柱浓度夏季最低,几乎保持在2×1016 cm–2以下,春、秋季次之,在3×1016 cm–2上下小范围浮动,冬季最高,可达4.5×1016 cm–2;月平均最低值出现在7月,最高值出现在11月。NO2柱浓度与风速、风向密切相关:来自东边唐山方向的风,风速越大时NO2浓度越高,因为唐山是NO2的高值区之一;其它方向风速越大,浓度越低。春、夏两季NO2柱浓度日变化趋势比较平缓,秋、冬两季日变化明显,秋季正午偏高,冬季早晚偏高。