Analysis of agricultural drought in Iiuni,Eastern Kenya: application of a Markov model

In semi‐arid Kenya, episodes of agricultural droughts of varying severity and duration occur. The occurrence of these agricultural droughts is associated with seasonal rainfall variability and can be reflected by seasonal soil moisture deficits that significantly affect crop performance and yield. The objective of this study was to stochastically simulate the behaviour of dry and wet spells and rainfall amounts in Iiuni watershed, Kenya. The stochastic behaviour of the longest dry and wet spells (runs) and largest rainfall amounts were simulated using a Markov (order 1) model. There were eight raingauge stations within the watershed. The entire analysis was carried out using probability parameters, i.e. mean, variance, simple and conditional probabilities of dry and rain days. An analysis of variance test (ANOVA ) was used to establish significant differences in rainfall characteristics between the eight stations. An analysis of the number of rain days and rainfall amount per rain day was done on a monthly basis to establish the distribution and reliability of seasonal rainfall. The graphic comparison of simulated cumulative distribution functions (Cdfs) of the longest spells and largest rainfall amounts showed Markovian dependence or persistence. The longest dry spells could extend to 24 days in the long rainy season and 12 in the short rainy season. At 50% (median) probability level, the largest rainfall amounts were 91 mm for the long rainy season and 136 mm for the short rainy season. The short rains were more reliable for crop production than the long rains. The Markov model performed well and gave adequate simulations of the spells and rainfall amounts under semi‐arid conditions. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新疆一次罕见的暖区暴雨过程特征分析

2018年7月31日新疆出现了一次罕见的暴雨过程,最大暴雨中心位于新疆东部哈密市,哈密市伊州区沁城乡小堡村过程累计雨量115.5 mm,连续2个时次小时雨强29.2 mm。对比哈密市建站以来6个国家气象站历年资料发现,此次暴雨特征与以往冷锋暴雨明显不同,暴雨降水时段更为集中,强度比冷锋暴雨更强,暴雨云团为典型的中尺度云团,范围小、呈块状。由于500 h Pa西太平洋副热带高压偏西偏北,高空无低值系统和冷空气入侵,哈密市主要受西太平洋副热带高压外围偏南暖湿气流的影响,此次暴雨结合了南方副热带高压型和偏南风风速辐合型暖区暴雨的典型特征,具有暖区暴雨的热力结构和风场配置,是一次罕见的暖区暴雨过程。暴雨区偏南风风速辐合和暴雨区山区地形的抬升效应是本次暴雨重要的触发机制,700 hPa孟加拉湾和日本海南部两支水汽在华北平原汇合沿东南输送路径至暴雨区且有强烈水汽辐合。暴雨发生在云顶亮温(TBB)等值线密集区梯度最大处,越接近TBB低值中心梯度处的暴雨强度越强。     

2017年湖南一次特大致洪暴雨过程的水汽特征

利用湖南省区域自动站和常规观测站降水资料、NCEP/NCAR和JRA-55再分析资料及湖南省气象台大气河预报业务产品,分析了2017年6月22日至7月2日湖南一次特大致洪暴雨过程的雨洪和水汽输送异常特征,以及大气河水汽输送对强降雨的影响,在此基础上定量分析了强降雨区各边界的水汽收支状况及各水汽轨迹的贡献。结果表明:此次强降水过程分为三个阶段,第一、第三阶段降雨的范围、强度均明显大于第二阶段。欧亚中高纬稳定的"1槽1脊"环流形势、低纬较稳定的西太副高及其外围强劲的水汽输送是此次暴雨发生的环流背景。水汽通量、水汽通量散度、比湿等物理量的水平及垂直分布对降水的阶段性特征和位置、强度变化有很好的指示作用。三个强降雨时段,来自孟加拉湾、南海和西太副高西南侧的水汽输送表现出不同的强度和位置,造成到达湖南境内的偏南水汽输送空间异常程度不同。大气河的强弱及其水汽输送通道、辐合区位置以及强降雨区各边界水汽净收入对强降水发生、发展起关键作用。水汽后向轨迹分析表明,低层偏南的水汽输送是此次极端强降雨较长时间维持的重要因素,而来自北方的干冷空气侵入利于大气斜压性增强和对流不稳定维持,是第二阶段降水强度弱于第一、第三阶段的另一原因。     

2019年5月大气环流和天气分析

2019年5月大气环流呈偶极型分布,加拿大北部极涡偏强,新地岛以南极涡变化不显著,中高纬环流呈四波型,西太平洋副热带高压强度与常年相当,南支槽较常年偏弱。5月全国平均气温为16.2℃,接近常年同期,月内气温波动较大,云南平均气温达到1961年以来最高。全国降水量为69.5 mm,与常年同期相当。月内我国共出现7次区域性暴雨天气过程,北京出现罕见冰雹和雷暴大风等强对流天气,江淮、黄淮和云南等地出现中到重度干旱,北方地区有4次沙尘天气过程。     

A PREDICTION SCHEME FOR THE PRECIPITATION OF SPR BASED ON THE DATA MINING ALGORITHM AND CIRCULATION ANALYSIS

Based on the 74 circulation indexes provided by National Climate Center of China (hereinafter referred to as NCC) and the 24 indexes compiled by NOAA, the study used the C4.5 algorithm in data mining to establish a decision tree prediction model to predict whether the Spring Persistent Rains (hereinafter referred to as SPR) of 55 years (from 1961 to 2015) is more than the normal, and obtained 5 rules to determine whether the SPR is more than the normal. The accuracy rate of the test set, namely “whether the SPR is more than the normal”, is 98.18%. After evaluating the model by conducting ten 10-fold cross validations to take the average value, the test accuracy rate gained is 84%. There are differences between the three types of years with a SPR more than the normal when it comes to intensity and distribution. In spring, they have respective anomalous 850hPa monthly mean wind fields and water-vapor flux distribution, and 700hPa forms the zone where the vertical speed is anomalously negative. As indicated by the results, the SPR prediction model based on the C4.5 algorithm has a high prediction accuracy rate, the model is reasonably and effectively constructed, and the decision rules take comprehensive factors into consideration. The anomalous rainfall and circulation distribution characteristics obtained based on the decision classification results provide new ideas and methods for the climatic prediction of SPR.     

低涡东北部一次暴雨的成因分析

2013年5月15-17日长江下游地区多地出现连续暴雨,数值模式检验显示雨量预报值误差较大。利用常规天气资料、NCEP 0.5°×0.5°格点资料和多普勒雷达资料,对这次暴雨过程进行了成因分析,结果表明:槽前西南气流、低涡切变和深厚湿层提供了有利的大尺度形势背景;低涡东北部产生的暴雨与低层东风急流的扰动和曲率增大密切相关,地面辐合抬升触发了上升运动;700 h Pa切变线和地面中小尺度辐合线的叠加处、925 h Pa水汽通量散度负值中心区都与暴雨区有较好的对应关系;多普勒雷达平均径向速度图像上显示强烈的辐合区,正、负速度区面积比达到1∶3,回波不断在辐合线处生成,下游地区出现"列车效应",强降水时段雷达回波强度为30~40d Bz,小时雨量达到16~20 mm。对比模式预报场,中低层偏东急流量级和气旋性弯曲偏小导致了暴雨区漏报,地面辐合线位置和强度的偏差造成了雨量中心位置的偏差,可通过与实况对比、雷达分析等手段对预报进行订正。     

Temporal Variations of the Spring Persistent Rains and South China Sea Sub-high and Their Correlations to the Circulation and Precipitation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

National Meteorological Information Center （NMIC） rainfall data and NCEP/NCAR daily circulation reanalysis data are employed to establish the onset-pentad time index of the spring persistent rains （SPR） and the decay-pentad time index of the South China Sea （SCS） sub-high. These indexes are used to study the relationship between the factors in SPR period and their relations to the circulation and precipitation of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）. Results show that, the summer rainfall over southeastern China decreases when SPR onset is late. For then EASM strengthens and the cyclonic circulation around the Tibetan Plateau （TP） strengthens, which makes abnormal anti-cyclonic circulation （cyclonic convergent circulation weakens） appear over southeastern China. When the decay of SCS sub-high delays, abnormal flood prevails over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLYR） and to the south. That is mainly caused by EASM weakening while SCS sub-high strengthening, then the abnormal southwesterly over South China and the abnormal northerlies of anti-cyclonic circulation around the TP converge over the Yangtze Valley. The two indexes have high correlations with multivariate ENSO index （MEI） in March, indicating that the climate abnormity in East Asia is related to global climate abnormity tightly. The two time indexes are independent of each other, which is favorable for the prediction of the anomalies of the circulation and precipitation of EASM. From this point of view, we must take the global climate background into account when we analyze and predict the East Asian summer circulation and precipitation.     

江南春雨和南海副热带高压的时间演变及其与东亚夏季风环流和降水的关系

使用国家气象信息中心整理的逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,创建了江南春雨建立时间指数和南海副热带高压(副高)减弱时间指数,研究了江南春雨各要素的相互关系及其与东亚夏季风环流和降水的关系.分析表明,当江南春雨建立较晚时,夏季江南地区的降水也较少,这是由于东亚夏季风加强,高原近侧气旋性环流加强,使江南地区出现异常反气旋性环流(气旋性辐合环流减弱)所致;当南海副高减弱较晚时,长江中下游至江南地区降水偏多,易发洪涝,这主要是由于东亚夏季风减弱,南海副高偏强,华南的异常西南风与围绕高原的异常反气旋环流的偏北风在长江中下游流域形成异常气旋性环流所致.江南春雨的建立时间和南海副高减弱时间之间又具有线性无关性,可以为东亚夏季风环流和降水异常的预报提供重要线索.两指数与3月ENSO综合指数MEI关系密切,表明东亚的气候异常与ENSO 全球气候异常紧密联系,因此在分析预测东亚气候异常时必须同时关注全球气候异常背景.     

暴雨中尺度系统数值模拟与动力诊断研究

本文总结了近年来我们在暴雨中尺度系统数值模拟与动力诊断研究领域的主要成果。从广义位涡理论、梅雨锋及变形锋生、暴雨中尺度系统的不稳定性、有限区域风场分解技术对暴雨中尺度系统的识别、中尺度波流相互作用理论以及数值模拟研究等方面进行了分类概括。对暴雨中尺度系统数值模拟与动力诊断的研究回顾表明,雷达资料同化进入模式有效地改进了对中尺度系统发生、发展的模拟结果;一些新的物理量,如非均匀饱和位涡、对流涡度矢量、变形场锋生以及有限区域风场分解方法等在暴雨中尺度系统及热带对流发展诊断分析中得到了广泛应用。同时,波流相互作用理论也被应用到了中尺度系统发展的动力分析研究中。     

地形和城市热力环流对北京地区一次β中尺度暴雨的影响

北京特殊的箕簸型地形和超大城市热力环流对北京局地暴雨的落区和强度有重要影响.利用北京地区丰富的地面和高空观测资料,对2006年7月24日的一次局地暴雨过程中温度、湿度、风场的演变和相互配置进行了详细的分析,揭示了一次系统性冷空气与地形和城市热力环流相互作用并激发产生β中尺度雨带中不同降水中心的精细过程.得出如下主要结论:受北京地形影响,此次冷空气以东北-西南路径影响北京城区,在冷空气明显的条件下,强降水容易发生在温度较高的城区,同时降水中心倾向于出现在温度距平等值线密集且靠近冷空气移动路径的方位,即冷暖交汇最剧烈的位置.地形辐合切变在冷空气到来时得到了迅速加强,为京西城区强对流提供了强有力的扰动源,同时近地面辐合切变的向上传播对强降水的持续提供了有利的动力支持.降水过程中的潜热释放造成风场垂直切变的改变,在一定程度上使风暴中心附近的东南风迅速加强,使得降水所需的水汽条件得以维持.