Macroseismic estimates of magnitude in Italy

A multi-parametric study of empirical relationships between macroseismic data and magnitude is presented for the Italian region by the analysis of a new extended data set concerning 146 earthquakes. The available magnitude determinations include all of the most intense earthquakes which occurred in Italy in the last century and have been obtained by an accurate revision of original instrumental data. Intensity data have been revised and upgraded on the basis of the most recent studies: only local intensities directly documented have been used. Macroseismic determinations ofM _s ,m _B andM _wa magnitudes have been performed. The empirical relationships between maximum felt intensity (I _max ) and magnitude have been determined by the use of a distribution-free approach and a linear regression analysis. This last parameterization allows for the explanation of more than 60% of the variation in magnitude. In order to improve these results, the linear dependence between magnitude,I _max and average distances (in logarithm) corresponding to fixed attenuation values has been explored. The comparison between instrumental magnitudes and corresponding macroseismic estimates obtained from empirical relationships shows that the respective uncertainties are comparable.     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON THE FORMATION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUMMER MONSOON

In this paper,we use a two-dimensional primary equation model which contains (1) heating ofradiation,(2) heating of condensation,and (3) transfers of sensible and latent heat between air andthe underlying surface.To investigate the causes for the formation of the eastern North Pacific sum-mer monsoon,the data at 110°W are obtained and winds at underlying surface and at 200 hPa aremodified under the conditions (1) removing topography and (2) changing meridional sea surface tem-perature (SST) gradient.In the numerical modification,we find that by removing the topography,the center's location ofthe eastern North Pacific summer monsoon does not change,but the intensity of the summer monsoonis weakened.Also the onset of the summer monsoon is delayed to the end of May.The tropical east-erly jet is weakened obviously,even changes to westerly wind.On the other hand,we find that theSST gradient along 110°W influences the eastern North Pacific summer monsoon distinctly.If theSST gradient is decreased,the center of the southwest wind near 12°N does not exist any more.theintensity of the whole summer monsoon becomes very weak and the circulation pattern of the summermonsoon also changes a lot.Finally,we indicate that both topography and meridional SST gradient play important roles inthe occurrence of the eastern North Pacific summer monsoon.The meridional SST gradient is themost important factor that triggers the summer monsoon and the topography along 110°W influencesthe intensity and the onset time of the summer monsoon there mostly.     

热带太平洋地区SSTA和风应力场的海气耦合模态

按国家气象局“八五”攻关力专家组提出的有关近海热带气候强度突变的标准，对１９７０－１９９１年在我国的近海发生强度突为的热带气旋进行了分类统计，发现如下气候特征：平均每年有８－９个热带气旋移到我国近海时发生强度突变，其中突然减弱的居多，占总个数的７９．６％，突然增强的只占总个数的２０．４％，突然增强只发和天５－１０月，而突然减弱到５－１２月均可发生；突然增强主要出现在浙闽沿海、南海中部，珠江口外西侧     

台风影响期间珠江三角洲局地强风暴和大暴雨发生的环境条件

采用１９７６－１９８３年６－８月珠江三角洲地区受台风影响期间区内各站逐日的强风暴和降水资料以及广泛站的探空资料，用相关对比度分析方法，对台风环流中的珠江三角洲局地强风暴和大暴雨发生的环境条件进行统计诊断，得出台风影响珠江三角洲时这两种强天气发生的有利的环境条件，并发现二者在气压、风速、层结稳定度和中下层位势不稳定等方面显著不同。     

A FORTRAN Program for tabulating and naming amphibole analyses according to the International Mineralogical Association Scheme

Summary Amphibole analyses input to program AMPHTAB (optionally with H₂O, F, Cl, minor elements and one or both of Fe₂O₃, FeO), are output in conventional column tables, with formula units, complete IMA names, and extensive messages indicating the quality of each analysis. AMPHTAB accepts data-files ranging from a single amphibole analysis to (in principle) unlimited batched data-e.g., multiple analyses from each of numerous probe sections. Options are provided to reallocate total Fe in probe data between Fe³ and Fe², to allow for common analytical problems (e.g., low H₂O values), and to enable the number of oxygens in the formula unit to be either preset or assigned automatically. Results for 57 probe analyses are compared with an unpublished BASIC program, which uses a different Fe-reallocation method. Three-quarters of the IMA names resulting from the two programs are essentially identical, despite somewhat different estimated formula units. The remainder are borderline cases, where incidental changes in formula units effect disproportionate differences in name.

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Ein FORTRAN-Programm zum tabellieren und benennen von amphibolanalysen entsprechend dem Schema der International Mineralogical Association

Zusammenfassung In das Programm eingegebene Amphibolanalysen (wahlweise mit H₂O, F, Cl, Spurenelementen und Fe₂O₃, und/oder FeO), werden in Form herkömmlicher Spaltentabellen mit den Formeleinheiten, vollständigen IMA-Namen und ausführlichen Bemerkungen bezüglich der Analysenqualität ausgegeben. Das AMPHTAB-Programm verarbeitet Datensätze von einer einzigen Amphibolanalyse bis zu (im Prinzip) unbegrenzten Datenblöcken; z. B. Mehrfachanalysen eines Probenabschnittes von mehreren. Es sind die Möglichkeiten vorgesehen, das Gesamteisen in einer Analyse in die Fe³ und Fe²-Anteile umzurechnen, allgemeine analytische Probleme (z. B. niedrige H₂O-Gehalte) zu lösen und die Anzahl der Sauerstoffatome in der Formeleinheit entweder vorzugeben oder automatisch setzen zu lassen. Die Resultate von 57 Mikrosonden-Analysen sind mit einem unveröffentlichten BASICProgramm, das eine andere Methode zur Aufteilung des Fe-Gehaltes benutzt, verglichen worden. Drei Viertel der von den beiden Programmen vorgeschlagenen Mineralnamen sind identisch, trotz einiger unterschiedlich berechneter Formeleinheiten. Die übrigen 25% sind Grenzfälle, bei denen zufällige Veränderungen in den Formeleinheiten unverhältnismäßige Unterschiede in der Benennung bewirkten.

     

Statistics on the sizes and internal structures of rainshowers

A large sample of radar reflectivity data from essentially a full summer of operation was analyzed to determine the horizontal extents and internal structure of rain areas observed at altitude levels from 2 to 10 km. Results are given on the size distributions of individual cells or patches defined by reflectivity thresholds approximately 4 dBz apart, on the dependence of mean size on altitude and reflectivity threshold, and on the interior structure of the patches as characterized by the number and sizes of higher-threshold patches contained in each echo. In a more detailed analysis of internal structure, the data were restricted to convective echoes in which certain prescribed reflectivities, ranging from about 30 to 50 dBz, were exceeded. It was found that the dependence of mean quantities, such as patch area, on reflectivity and altitude could be approximately described by simple functions, but that the scatter of observations about the mean was usually large.     

The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO2 over China

A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280,355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation-indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate inodelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China.     

Improving the accuracy of tipping-bucket rain records using disaggregation techniques

We present a methodology able to infer the influence of rainfall measurement errors on the reliability of extreme rainfall statistics. We especially focus on systematic mechanical errors affecting the most popular rain intensity measurement instrument, namely the tipping-bucket rain-gauge (TBR). Such uncertainty strongly depends on the measured rainfall intensity (RI) with systematic underestimation of high RIs, leading to a biased estimation of extreme rain rates statistics. Furthermore, since intense rain-rates are usually recorded over short intervals in time, any possible correction strongly depends on the time resolution of the recorded data sets. We propose a simple procedure for the correction of low resolution data series after disaggregation at a suitable scale, so that the assessment of the influence of systematic errors on rainfall statistics become possible. The disaggregation procedure is applied to a 40-year long rain-depth dataset recorded at hourly resolution by using the IRP (Iterated Random Pulse) algorithm. A set of extreme statistics, commonly used in urban hydrology practice, have been extracted from simulated data and compared with the ones obtained after direct correction of a 12-year high resolution (1 min) RI series. In particular, the depth–duration–frequency curves derived from the original and corrected data sets have been compared in order to quantify the impact of non-corrected rain intensity measurements on design rainfall and the related statistical parameters. Preliminary results suggest that the IRP model, due to its skill in reproducing extreme rainfall intensities at fine resolution in time, is well suited in supporting rainfall intensity correction techniques.     

武汉市轨道交通二号线工程场地砂土液化分析

本文详细介绍了武汉市轨道交通二号线工程场地地震地质灾害评价中对饱和砂土液化的分析方法及评价结果。     

Rainfall intensity characteristics at coastal and high altitude stations in Kerala

Rainfall intensities measured at a few stations in Kerala during 2001–2005 using a disdrometer were found to be in reasonable agreement with the total rainfall measured using a manual rain gauge. The temporal distributions of rainfall intensity at different places and during different months show that rainfall is of low intensity (< 10 mm/hr), 65% to 90% of the time. This could be an indication of the relative prevalence of stratiform and cumuliform clouds. Rainfall was of intensity < 5 mm/hr for more than 95% of the time in Kochi in July 2002, which was a month seriously deficient in rainfall, indicating that the deficiency was probably due to the relative absence of cumuliform clouds. Cumulative distribution graphs are also plotted and fitted with the Weibull distribution. The fit parameters do not appear to have any consistent pattern. The higher intensities also contributed significantly to total rainfall most of the time, except in Munnar (a hill station). In this analysis also, the rainfall in Kochi in July 2002 was found to have less presence of high intensities. This supports the hypothesis that the rainfall deficiency was probably caused by the absence of conditions that favoured the formation of cumuliform clouds.