江西省7至9月水汽资源特征

根据天气学原理 ,对 11个探空站 1988～ 1997年 7、8、9月逐日 (0 7时、19时 )资料与同期天气系统 (低槽、副热带高压、低压辐合、东风波、台风低压、大陆高压、台风外围 )进行计算与分析 ,结果表明 ,江西省 1988～ 1997年 7～ 9月平均水汽量值为 4 .4 6 g·cm-2 ,其中 :0 7时为 4 .4 4 g·cm-2 ,19时为 4 .4 7g·cm-2 ,7、8、9月平均水汽量值各为4 .8g·cm-2 、4 .6 4 g·cm-2 、4 .0 9g·cm-2 。水汽量分布为南部高北部低 ,东部和西部居中。东风波影响时水汽量最大 ,值为 9.2 3g·cm-2 ,大陆高压影响时水汽量最小 ,值为 0 .78g·cm-2 。轻度干旱频率区水汽量值最大 ,为4 .81g·cm-2 ,最小值出现在重度干旱频率区 ,为 0 .72 g·cm-2 。夏季水汽交换次数为 9.4次 /月 ,水汽更新率为 10 .2天。     

一次罕见大冰雹天气的新一代天气雷达回波分析

利用常规资料和多普勒雷达资料,分析了2011年6月24日洛阳嵩县冰雹天气过程。结果表明：高空横槽转竖,干冷空气入侵,中低层强的偏东风辐合,暖湿气流辐合上升,为冰雹的发生提供了有利的动力和水汽条件;高空冷平流,低层暖平流,为强对流性天气的发生提供了不稳定层结;适宜于冰雹生成发展的0℃层高度,指示有利于对流发展的各类指数,为冰雹的分析预报提供了较好的依据;早期的雷达回波信号及其所带来的天气,为提前对强对流天气性质正确判断和监测预警提供了较好的参考信息;强度〉55dBz的回波高度高于-20℃层高度,VIL值〉60kg／m^2,回波顶高〉12km,有中气旋出现等,是降雹的可靠信号。     

雷州半岛雾的气候特征及生消机理

利用分别位于雷州半岛北部、中部和南部的湛江站59a、雷州站46a和徐闻站42a的气象资料,分析了雷州半岛雾发生的规律及生消机理。结果表明：三站年雾日数变化趋势基本一致,呈＂W＂状,局部峰值明显升高。三站的年平均雾日数分别为24.7d、30.4d和21.0d。雷州半岛雾日主要出现在每年的1—4月及12月,3月雾日数最多,7月雾日数最少。近10a湛江站夜间雾发生频率为90%;短雾多,持续时间在4h以内的占75%。雾形成的天气形势可分为高压入海型、低压前型、冷锋前型、静止锋前型、鞍形场或均压场型5类,主要是平流雾、锋面雾和辐射雾。3种雾消散的天气形势是新冷空气补充南下、雾滴出现碰并沉降形成小雨或日出后雾滴蒸发。统计雷州半岛三站2000—2009年雾次频数得出,成雾概率最大的气象条件是气温为15～25℃、T-Td≤1.0℃、Δp3在-3.5～-2hPa和1.5～2.5hPa之间、风向为NNE-ESE及风速小于5m/s。L波段雷达探空大雾个例分析表明：雾顶高度在1.5km左右,雾中温度随高度增加而减小;雾中相对湿度大于92%,1.5km之上急剧减小,3km以上保持不变;T-Td为1.2～6.4℃;近地面风速为2～6m/s,风向随高度顺时针旋转,雾中有暖平流。     

肇州降水集中度和集中期的气候特征分析

对近50年来肇州降水的集中度和集中期进行了计算分析,结果表明:近50年来,降水的集中程度有下降的趋势,集中期有提前的趋势。集中度和集中期分别存在着11a和14a左右的年代际尺度周期变化。肇州的年降水量呈下降趋势,肇州降水集中度和集中期与年降水量有很好的正相关性,年降水总量比较大的年份,降水集中程度相对较高。     

华东区域夏季行星边界层大气稳定度的气候特征及其与气溶胶的联系

利用1979-2008年夏季（6—8月）逐日NCEP／NACR再分析资料、MODIS卫星的气溶胶资料等,研究了华东区域夏季行星边界层大气稳定度的气候特征与年际变化,分析了大气稳定度和相应的加热场与气溶胶光学厚度（aerosol optical depth,AOD）的联系。结果表明：华东区域夏季行星边界层大气稳定度在空间上分布不均匀,时间上具有明显的年际变化。边界层中的非绝热加热率、大气稳定度及气溶胶光学厚度三者之间可能存在密切联系。利用经验正交函数分析了华东区域总体理查森数Rib的距平场,得到了边界层稳定度分布的3个主要模态,这3个模态所代表的边界层大气稳定度异常与夏季风环流异常密切相关,特别是P-J型遥相关波列和西太平洋副热带高压在中国东部大气边界层稳定度变化中可能起着非常重要的作用。     

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Water Availability in the Yellow River Basin

The changes in hydrological processes in the Yellow River basin were simulated by using the Community Land Model(CLM,version 3.5),driven by historical climate data observed from 1951 to 2008.A comparison of modeled soil moisture and runoff with limited observations in the basin suggests a general drying trend in simulated soil moisture,runoff,and precipitation-evaporation balance(P-E) in most areas of the Yellow River basin during the observation period.Furthermore,annual soil moisture,runoff,and P-E averaged over the entire basin have declined by 3.3%,82.2%,and 32.1%,respectively.Significant drying trends in soil moisture appear in the upper and middle reaches of the basin,whereas a significant trend in declining surface runoff and P-E occurred in the middle reaches and the southeastern part of the upper reaches.The overall decreasing water availability is characterized by large spatial and temporal variability.     

基于统计降尺度模型的江淮流域极端气候的模拟与预估

利用江淮流域29个代表站点1961--2000年逐日最高温度、最低温度和逐日降水资料,以及NCEP逐日大尺度环流场资料,引入基于多元线性回归与随机天气发生器相结合的统计降尺度模型SDSM（statistical downscalingmodel）,通过对每个站点建模,确立SDSM参数,并将该模型应用于SRESA2排放情景下HadCM3和cGcM3模式,得到了江淮流域各代表台站21世纪的逐日最高、最低温度和降水序列以及热浪、霜冻、强降水等极端气候指数。结果表明,当前气候下,统计降尺度方法模拟的极端温度指数与观测值有很好的一致性,能有效纠正耦合模式的“冷偏差”,如SDSM对江淮平均的冬季最高、最低温度的模拟偏差较CGCM3模式分别减少3℃和4．5℃。对于极端降水则能显著纠正耦合模式模拟的降水强度偏低的问题,如CGCM3对江淮流域夏季降水强度的模拟偏差为-60．6％,但降尺度后SDSM—CGCM3的偏差仅为-6％,说明降尺度模型SDSM的确有“增加值”的作用。21世纪末期在未来SRESA2情景下,对于极端温度,无论Had．CM3还是CGCM3模式驱动统计模型,江淮流域所有代表台站,各个季节的最高、最低温度都显著增加,且以夏季最为显著,增幅在2—4℃;与之相应霜冻天数将大幅减少,热浪天数大幅增多,各站点冬季霜冻天数减少幅度为5—25d,夏季热浪天数增加幅度为4～14d;对于极端降水指数,在两个不同耦合模式HadCM3和CGCM3驱动下的变化尤其是变化幅度的一致性比温度差,但大部分站点各个季节极端强降水事件将增多,强度增强,SDSM—HadCM3和SDSM-CGCM3预估的夏季极端降水贡献率将分别增加26％和27％。     

Long-Term Trend and Abrupt Change for Major Climate Variables in the Upper Yellow River Basin

On the basis of the mean air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, and pan evaporation from 23 meteorological stations in the upper Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2001, the feasibility of using hypothesis test techniques to detect the long-term trend for major climate variables has been investigated. Parametric tests are limited by the assumptions such as the normality and constant variance of the error terms. Nonparametric tests have not these additional assumptions and are better adapted to the trend test for hydro-meteorological time series. The possible trends of annual and monthly climatic time series are detected by using a non-parametric method and the abrupt changes have been examined in terms of 5-yr moving averaged seasonal and annual series by using moving T-test (MTT) method, Yamamoto method, and Mann-Kendall method. The results show that the annual mean temperature has increased by 0.8℃in the upper Yellow River Basin during the past 42 years. The warmest center was located in the northern part of the basin. The nonlinear tendency for annual precipitation was negative during the same period. The declining center for annual precipitation was located in the eastern part and the center of the basin. The variation of annual precipitation in the upper Yellow River Basin during the past 42 years exhibited an increasing tendency from 1972 to 1989 and a decreasing tendency from 1990 to 2001. The nonlinear tendencies for annual sunshine duration and pan evaporation were also negative. They have decreased by 125.6 h and 161.3 mm during the past 42 years, respectively. The test for abrupt changes by using MTT method shows that an abrupt wanning occurred in the late 1980s. An abrupt change of the annual mean precipitation occurred in the middle 1980s and an abrupt change of the mean sunshine duration took place in the early 1980s. For the annual mean pan evaporation, two abrupt changes took place in the 1980s and the early 1990s. The test results of the Yamamoto method show that the abrupt changes mostly occurred in the 1980s, and two acute abrupt changes were tested for the spring pan evaporation in 1981 and for the annual mean temperature in 1985. According to the Mann-Kendall method, the abrupt changes of the temperature mainly occurred in the 1990s, the pan evaporation abrupt changes mostly occurred in the 1960s, and the abrupt changes of the sunshine duration primarily took place in the 1980s. Although the results obtained by using three methods are different, it is undoubted that jumps have indeed occurred in the last four decades.     

辽宁抚顺西露天矿南帮滑坡变形与地下水位关系

结合抚顺西露天矿的地质环境背景,介绍了抚顺西露天矿南帮滑坡变形监测中地下水监测系统的构建情况。从降水入渗、岩体的透水性等角度对比了汛期及非汛期地下水的监测数据,并利用SPSS统计分析软件对单点地下水位变化值和滑坡位移变化值进行曲线估计回归分析并建立模型。结果表明,汛期持续强降雨是诱发西露天矿南帮滑坡变形的重要因素;强降雨入渗过程中,基岩裂隙水的变化存在明显的滞后性;单点地下水位变化值和滑坡位移变化值符合三次项曲线模型;非汛期,地下水位逐渐降低,滑坡地表变形速率也减缓。     

单个粘土体裂缝中水流规律的研究

通过模型实验,研究粘土体裂缝中的水流规律,提出了临界水位上升速度的概念。水位上升速度大于临界值时,裂缝中水流量增加,反之则减少。裂缝水流量与水位不呈正比关系。指出粘土裂缝中最大水流量要比相同条件下基岩裂缝水流量小30—40倍。随着水流运动的延续,水流量将逐渐变小。在水流作用下,粘土裂缝宽度将变窄3.0—4.0cm,裂缝深度也大幅度变浅到裂缝水深的50％以上。