西藏高原近40年的气温变化

利用西藏1961－2000年月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温资料，分析了近40年高原气温的变化趋势。结果发现，西藏大部分地区四季和年平均气温为升温趋势，尤其是秋、冬季；高原上普遍存在气温非对称变化现象，以Tmax、Tmin显著上升，但Tmin上升幅度大于Tmax为主要类型。Tmax上升主要表现在夏季，增暖以冬季最为明显，气温日较差降夏季外均显著减小。在各纬度带上均表现为升温，春、秋季升温最大，冬季次之。高海拔地区比低海拔地区升温强。近40年来西藏高原年平均气温以0.26℃/10a的增长率上升，明显高于全国和全球气温的增长率。20世纪60年代多异常偏冷年，90年代多异常偏暖年。     

El Niño Impact on Polar Motion Prediction Errors

The polar motion prediction is computed as a least-squares extrapolation of the polar motion data. The least-squares model consists of a Chandler circle with constant or variable amplitude, annual and semiannual ellipses, and a bias. The model with constant amplitude of the Chandler oscillation is fit to the last three years of polar motion data and the model with variable amplitude of the Chandler oscillation is fit to the whole time series ranging from 1973.0 to 2001.1. The variable amplitude of the Chandler oscillation is modeled from the envelope of the Chandler oscillation filtered by the Fourier transform band pass filter from the long-term IERS EOPC01 polar motion series. The accuracy of the polar motion prediction depends mostly on the phase variation of the annual oscillation, which is treated as a constant in the least-squares adjustment. There were two significant changes of the annual oscillation phase of the order of 30° before the two El Niño events in 1982/83 and 1997/98.     

全球气候变化下青藏公路沿线冻土变化响应模型的研究

利用英国Hadley气候预测与研究中心GCM模型HADCM2预测的气温变化背景，分别提取青藏公路沿线地区在2009年，2049年和2099年的气温参数，考虑年平均气温和年平均地温的关系及年平均地温与海拔，纬度的关系模型，多年冻土下界分布模型和地温带分带，建立青藏公路沿线多年冻土下界分布的响应模型和多年冻土地温带的响应模型，研究结果表明，2009年青藏公路沿线的冻土变化较小，多年冻土极稳定带,稳定带和基本稳定带仅发生微弱的变化，基本稳定过渡带和不稳定带变化较大，多年冻土,逐渐退化，2049年青藏公路沿线多年冻土各地温带变化较大，但仍以基本稳定过渡带和不稳定带变化最大，多年冻土发生较大范围的退化；2099年后青藏公路沿线冻土发生了很大的变化，多年冻土发生大面积的退化，融区面积逐渐增大，多年冻土地温带也发生了较大的变化，其中多年冻土上带仅保留了稳定带，极稳定带全部消失，稳定带和基本稳定带全部转化为不稳定带。     

边界条件对土层粘弹性地震反应的影响

边界条件是土层粘弹性地震反应必须考虑的问题。对于地表面，一般作为自由边界，而对于地下深处基岩面，边界条件有两种处理方法：一是静止边界，二是非静止边界的。首先给出了在时间域内单层地基一维土层粘弹性地震反应封闭解析解，然后从理论上分析边界条件对土层粘弹性地震反应的影响，认为采用静止边界进行土层地震反应计算得到的地震动加速度时程符合天然地震记录形式，而采用非静止边界进行土层地震反应计算得到的地震动加速度时程初始阶段出现较大幅度的振荡现象，随着土层厚度增加，这种振荡现象逐渐减弱直至消失。当土层阻尼较小或剪切波速增长时，振荡现象加剧；当土层阻尼比较大或剪切波速减小时，振荡现象减弱。此外，采用非静止边界进行土层地震反应计算，表现出随着土层厚度的增加，土层对基岩输入地震动的放大作用逐步转化为吸收作用。     

数字地震观测系统的标定分析

利用正弦波信号对数字地震观测系统进行标定 ,计算各频点的响应灵敏度 ,确定地震观测系统的幅频特性曲线。对正确分析和解释地震观测记录以及地震基本参数测定是必须的。     

基于有机包裹体研究追索海拉尔盆地煤成油

有机包裹体在油气成因，运移研究中具有重要的意义，本文通过对海拉尔盆地砂岩样品中的有机包裹体进行显微荧光观察，包裹体均一测温，并对包裹体成分进行轻烃气相色谱及碳同位素分析，索了研究区油气的成因性质及油气运移期次,结果表明，海拉尔地区存在煤成油，并有两期以上的油气运移。     

松辽盆地地热资源的形成与远景评价

松辽平原在地貌和地质上都是一个盆地。盆地中心区域上地幔隆升形成地幔枕，使本地区成为地壳中的一个热点，具有较高的地热背景。盆地是汇水区，盆地中部地域自然就成为地下热水主要的分布区。松辽盆地地热资源开发远景大有希望。     

四川牦牛坪稀土矿床萤石REE配分模式的影响因素

四川牦牛坪稀土矿床萤石REE配分模式表现出明显变化的特征，本文从稀土离子半径和温度两个方面分析了影响矿区萤石配分模式的原因。结果表明：矿区萤石中LREE的配分模式主要受温度影响，而MREE、HREE主要受离子半径控制。     

Wave propagation in a seven-story reinforced concrete building: I. Theoretical models

For transient, high frequency, and pulse like excitation of structures in the near field of strong earthquakes, the classical design approach based on relative response spectrum and mode superposition may not be conservative. For such excitations, it is more natural to use wave propagation methods. In this paper (Part I), we review several two-dimensional wave propagation models of buildings and show results for theoretical dispersion curves computed for these models. We also estimate the parameters of these models that would correspond to a seven-story reinforced concrete building in Van Nuys, California. Ambient vibration tests data for this building imply vertical shear wave velocity β_z=112 m/s and anisotropy factor β_x/β_z=0.55 for NS vibrations, and β_z=88 m/s and β_x/β_z=1 for EW vibrations. The velocity of shear waves propagating through the slabs is estimated to be about 2000 m/s. In the companion paper (Part II), we estimate phase velocities of vertically and horizontally propagating waves between seven pairs of recording points in the building using recorded response to four earthquakes.     

Improved dynamic correction method in seismic analysis of both classically and non‐classically damped structures

A step‐by‐step approximate procedure taking into consideration high‐frequency modes, usually neglected in the modal analysis of both classically and non‐classically damped structures, is presented. This procedure can be considered as an extension of traditional modal correction methods, like the mode‐acceleration method and the dynamic correction method, which are very effective for structural systems subjected to forcing functions described by analytical laws. The proposed procedure, herein called improved dynamic correction method, requires two steps. In the first step, the number of differential equations of motion are reduced and consequently solved by using the first few undamped mode‐shapes. In the second step, the errors due to modal truncation are reduced by correcting the dynamic response and solving a new set of differential equations, formally similar to the original differential equations of motion. The difference between the two groups of differential equations lies in the forcing vector, which is evaluated in such a way as to correct the effects of modal truncation on applied loads. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.