经纬仪检定装置测量不确定度分析

重点介绍目前国内应用较多由地震研究所生产的JSJ-ZB垂直角目标系统与多齿台组合，按计量要求对该装置误差来源、标准不确定度及扩展不确定进行了较详细的分析和计算，经分析和实践证明该套装置可满足目前国内外各等级经纬仪室内检定要求，可供新建标单位及有关技术人员参考。     

利用深反射地震数据构建的多阶面波频散曲线反演近地表横波速度结构——以跨班公湖—怒江缝合带深反射地震资料为例

深反射地震剖面法为了获取深部结构特征常常采取大的偏移距采集数据.目前公开发表的相关资料中,鲜有利用深反射地震炮集数据获取近地表的结构特征.为此,本文通过正演测试了相关数据处理流程,即利用有限差分正演了起伏地表模型的大偏移距地震单炮弹性波场特征,通过共检波点域面波信号F-K频谱叠加构建新方法,从深反射地震数据集中提取了高品质的多阶面波频散曲线,再利用多阶面波联合反演获得了近地表的结构特征.在前述正演流程基础上,利用跨越班公湖—怒江缝合带的SinoProbe深反射地震剖面中的实际炮集数据,求取了基阶和一阶瑞利波频散曲线,联合反演后得到近地表横波速度结构.该结果与初至波走时反演获取的纵波速度结构具有较好的一致性,且在近地表的浅层分辨率较纵波速度结构特征更高,而更与已有地质认识相吻合.本文提供的相关数据处理流程表明利用深反射地震炮集数据,也能够获取近地表浅层的横波速度结构.     

一种改进的降水临近外推预报技术方法研究及效果检验

中尺度模式对于0～2h的预报存在起转问题,因此外推预报成为0～2h临近预报中不可或缺的技术方法。目前INCA(Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis System)降水外推预报中,外推矢量扰动由外推矢量随时间的变化确定,即相邻时次外推矢量差确定,本文统计2017年7月江淮地区(29°～35.5°N,114°～120°E)INCA系统相邻10min外推矢量偏差来代表外推矢量随时间变化。若降水向东北方向移动,则外推矢量方向规定为东北方向。统计结果表明:①对于江淮地区,外推矢量以东北方向和西南方向偏差为主,外推矢量越大,其偏差的大小越大;②从外推矢量方向看,东北方向外推矢量占绝大多数(73%),可能是因为绝大多数降水发生在槽前形势下,引导气流为西南风。基于外推矢量偏差统计样本,随机生成多个符合外推矢量偏差分布的外推矢量扰动,得到多个不确定的外推矢量,将INCA确定性外推预报变为0～2h降水外推集合预报,采用均方误差(MSE)、TS评分、BIAS评分和Brier技巧评分等方法,对集合预报结果检验表明:随着预报时效增加,集合预报比确定性预报的优势更明显。因此,考虑外推矢量的不确定性可以提高降水外推预报准确率。     

Tag retention and survival of fish tagged in controlled pond experiments

Fish survival, tag retention and tag loss were evaluated in pond experiments and described by linear regression equations. Tagging of fish had no significant influence on their survival. However, loss of tags caused strong differences between actual fish survival and the survival rate e^–z estimated on recovered tags. Mathematical functions were derived to correct tag loss. Values of those functions depend upon the type of tag and time after tagging. The B-type of tagging, which approximated the Swedish Carlin method, appeared to be most effective. The rate of tag loss was independent of the fish species (common carp, tench) used in the experiments.     

Three‐dimensional hydrodynamic and salinity transport modelling of Danshuei River estuarine system and adjacent coastal sea,Taiwan

A three‐dimensional, time‐dependent hydrodynamic and salinity model was applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system and adjacent coastal sea in Taiwan. The model forcing functions consist of tidal elevations along the open boundary and freshwater flows from the main stem and tributaries in the Danshuei River system. The bottom roughness height was calibrated and verified with model simulation of barotropic flow, and the turbulent diffusivities were calibrated through comparison of time‐series of salinity distributions. The overall model verification was achieved with comparisons of residual current and salinity distribution. The model simulation results are in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The model was then used to investigate the tidal current, residual current, and salinity patterns under the low freshwater flow condition in the modelling domain. The results reveal that the extensive intrusion of saline water imposes a significant baroclinic forcing and induces a strong residual circulation in the estuary. The downriver net velocity in the upper layer increases seaward despite the enlargement of the river cross‐section in that direction. Strong residual circulation can be found near the Kuan‐Du station. This may be the result of the deep bathymetric features there. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地球化学方法在吉家洼金矿区外围找矿中的应用

吉家洼金矿是华北陆块南缘熊耳山金矿田的一个小型矿床, 金矿体赋存于含矿断裂带内, 并严格受其控制, 矿体的形态、产状与含矿断裂基本一致。通过对矿区外围F1、F7断裂带开展系统的岩石地球化学测量, 圈定了多个受断裂控制的高强度Au异常, 经钻探施工, 见矿情况良好。进一步对钻孔进行了岩石原生晕采样化验和统计分析, 结果显示矿体向下有一定的延深, 经钻探施工, 在断裂深部发现工业矿体, 矿床规模扩大至中型。吉家洼矿区外围含矿断裂带数量多、矿化强度高, 而地表Au前缘元素非常发育, 向深部矿体头部元素及矿体元素发育并伴有前缘指示元素, 矿尾元素不发育, 已发现的矿体深部不封闭, 说明矿体沿倾向具有长距离延深, 深部找矿前景好。      

堆石料三维边界面模型在FLAC3D中的开发与验证

堆石料三维边界面模型结合了统一非线性强度准则,可以反映三维应力空间堆石料的应变硬化、软化以及体积收缩和剪胀等传统本构模型难以反映的力学特性。基于三维边界面模型的基本理论,通过FLAC3D提供的二次开发平台,在VC++环境下实现了三维边界面本构模型的二次开发,并给出基于FLAC3D程序的边界面本构模型开发的关键步骤、编程要点和调试方法。利用开发的本构模型,开展了三轴压缩试验的数值模拟计算,并与理论值进行了对比分析。结果表明,嵌入在FLAC3D中的三维边界面本构模型能够较好地反映设定试验条件下的材料性能,而且三维边界面本构模型模型参数简单,都可从常规三轴试验获得,从而验证了三维边界面模型二次开发程序的优越性与合理性。     

Improved SAL method and its application to verifying regional soil moisture forecasting

The regional verification of soil moisture is a vital step in evaluating and improving numerical model performance and utilizing forecast results. Currently, even with improved spatial and temporal resolutions of numerical model, verification methods for soil moisture data still rely on the traditional intensity verification parameters, such as mean error (ME) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE). Those methods provide only incomplete and sometimes inaccurate messages and thus hinder a proper evaluation of a forecast model. The SAL method is an object-based regional verification method with respect to precipitation forecasts. Based on the SAL method, a novel object-based method (SAL-DN) is proposed here, which can be used to test regional soil moisture. Both the ideal experiment and real experiment show that the SAL-DN method can reveal the differences between the observed and forecast soil moisture in three aspects: structure, amplitude, and location, and the results can reflect the actual situation. Furthermore, compared with the SAL method, the SAL-DN method is also capable of verifying physical quantities with high-value and low-value centers like temperature. Therefore, the SAL-DN method enhances verification accuracy and can be applied widely.     

APPLICATION OF STABLE OXYGEN AND HYDROGEN ISOTOPES TO THE VERIFICATION OF GROUNDWATER ANOMALIES

Identifying the source of the observed fluid anomalies is a major tast in verifying the anomalies in seismic subsurface fluid research. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes are proved to be effective to trace the underground fluid origin and its development. In this study, we summarized the basic principles, water sampling and testing techniques in recognizing the fluid anomalies by using the stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes. We also enumerated the related applications in analyzing the sudden water level increase and the rapid shifting from limpid water to murky. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes analysis can be used to verify the macroscopic underground fluid anomalies, such as subsurface water temperature, water level and chemical component changes, and the wide use of this method in seismic subsurface fluid research will be helpful to identify the tectonic or non-tectonic related influencing factors to the fluid anomalies.     

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