Optimization of grid-drilling using computer simulation

A computer simulation method has been developed to find efficient drilling grids for mineral deposits. A well-known ore deposit is used as a model to develop an efficient pattern for undiscovered ore bodies in the same area or in other prospects where similar geometry is suspected. The model for this study is the Austinville, Virginia deposit, a Mississippi Valley-type deposit composed of 17 ore bodies totaling 34 million short tons (30 million metric tons). The method employs a computer program that simulates drilling the model deposit with different patterns, including various levels of follow-up drilling. Follow-up holes are drilled in fences at one half the original spacing around holes in the grid that show ore-grade mineralization. Each pattern is drilled 100 times from random starting locations to provide a range of outcomes of drilling, including the best, worst, and most likely. For this study, patterns of 100 drill holes were composed of 10 fences spaced 1000–5000 feet (305–1524 m) apart, each with 10 holes spaced 200–1000 feet (61–305 m) apart. In all, 25 grids were used with zero to three levels of follow-up drilling. The 600/2000 grid, with drill holes spaced 600 feet (183 m) apart in fences spaced 2000 feet (610 m) apart, was compared with the 200/5000 grid because they represented contrasting outcomes. The 600/2000 grid penetrated many ore bodies consistently but with few multiple hits to individual ore bodies; whereas the 200/5000 grid inconsistently penetrated few ore bodies with many multiple hits. The 600/2000 grid was more efficient than the 200/5000 grid at hitting large ore bodies of 1,000,000 short tons or greater (900,000 metric tons or greater) and was made more effective by adding one cycle of follow-up drilling. The 600/2000 grid had a 97% chance of hitting one or more large ore bodies with at least one drill hole per ore body, and the 200/5000 grid had a 64% chance. Once hit, there was an 82% chance that the largest ore body would be penetrated by three or more holes when using the 600/2000 grid and an 88% chance using the 200/5000 grid.     

概论机场能见度的准确预报

通过对影响能见度的因素的分析，提出了一种能见度预报方法－综合分析法，极大地提高了能见度的预报准确率。     

Optimal Compensation and Implementation for Adaptive Optics Systems

This paper develops a compensation algorithm based on Linear–Quadratic–Gaussian (LQG) control system design whose parameters are determined (in part) by a model of the atmosphere. The model for the atmosphere is based on the open-loop statistics of the atmosphere as observed by the wavefront sensor, and is identified from these using an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) model. The (LQG) control design is compared with an existing compensation algorithm for a simulation developed at ESO that represents the operation of MACAO adaptive optics system on the 8.2 m telescopes at Paranal, Chile. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

介质横向不均匀对震后地表位移场的影响

利用三维有限元模拟两层地球模型(包括弹性层和粘弹性层)介质的横向不均匀和断层错动的复杂性对震后地表位移场的影响，其数值结果包括弹性解和粘弹性解。结果表明，震后位移场的分布特征不仅与粘弹性层的流变特性有关，还与弹性层介质的剪切模量以及断层的同震错动有关。     

首都圈地区现今断层活动的数学模拟及地震危险性讨论

以首都圈地区现今活动断层上近２０年的位移测量资料为依据，用二维线弹性有限元对该区断层的活动特征进行了拟合，并结合有关资料讨论了该区的地震危险性。结果表明：１９７７－１９８６年间该区主压应力优势方位与华北较一致，约为Ｎ４５°－８０°Ｅ；１９８６－１９９０年其主压应力方向向北偏转，约为Ｎ５°－６０°Ｅ；１９９０年至现在其主压应力又向东偏转，角度大于第一阶段，约为Ｎ８０°－９５°Ｅ。该区的张家口－延庆一带近期有发生中强震的可能；丰镇－阳高－大同地区和凉城－古营盘地区应力较高，也应引起注意。     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

RETRACTION: Numerical simulation of a wind-sand flow under different conditions of atmospheric stability

A theoretical model for wind‐sand flow is developed by considering the coupling between wind flow and sand particle motion, the latter subject to the Magnus effect, under different atmospheric stability conditions. Using this model, the characteristics of the wind‐sand flow are discussed in detail. The results show that the atmospheric stability and the Magnus effect both have a strong influence on wind profiles and on the trajectories of sand particles. This approach produces results with characteristics that differ from those previously reported; the latter only applying to atmospheric conditions of neutral stability. The saltating sand reaches a greater height under non‐neutral stability than under neutral stability, while the maximum horizontal distance is greater under unstable conditions and is smaller under stable conditions than under conditions of neutral stability.     

Numerical modeling for analyzing thermal surface anomalies induced by underground coal fires

Coal seams burning underneath the surface are recognized all over the world and have drawn increasing public attention in the past years. Frequently, such fires are analyzed by detecting anomalies like increased exhaust gas concentrations and soil temperatures at the surface. A proper analysis presumes the understanding of involved processes, which determine the spatial distribution and dynamic behavior of the anomalies.In this paper, we explain the relevance of mechanical and energy transport processes with respect to the occurrence of temperature anomalies at the surface. Two approaches are presented, aiming to obtain insight into the underground coal fire situation: In-situ temperature mapping and numerical simulation. In 2000 to 2005, annual temperature mapping in the Wuda (Inner Mongolia, PR China) coal fire area showed that most thermal anomalies on the surface are closely related to fractures, where hot exhaust gases from the coal fire are released. Those fractures develop due to rock mechanical failure after volume reduction in the seams. The measured signals at the surface are therefore strongly affected by mechanical processes.More insight into causes and effects of involved energy transport processes is obtained by numerical simulation of the dynamic behavior of coal fires. Simulations show the inter-relation between release and transport of thermal energy in and around underground coal fires. Our simulation results show a time delay between the coal fire propagation and the observed appearance of the surface temperature signal. Additionally, the overall energy flux away from the burning coal seam into the surrounding bedrock is about 30-times higher than the flux through the surface. This is of particular importance for an estimation of the energy released based on surface temperature measurements. Finally, the simulation results also prove that a fire propagation rate estimated from the interpretation of surface anomalies can differ from the actual rate in the seam.     

Delineation of groundwater protection zones by the backward particle tracking method: theoretical background and GIS-based stochastic analysis

The backward particle tracking method, an effective and powerful tool that can be used to delineate groundwater protection zones, is presented. The theoretical background and insights on the applicability of this method are provided. Moreover, the present work enriches the backward particle tracking method with an uncertainty analysis concerning the porosity values, applying a Monte Carlo (MC) approach, coupled with the use of geographical information systems (GIS). As an application example, a wellfield in the Komotini area, Greece, is investigated. The present study may serve as a potential guideline for wellfield delineation, particularly in areas like Greece where lack of data related to the hydrogeological system is often a problem.     

On CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> fluid flow and heat transfer behavior in the subsurface,following leakage from a geologic storage reservoir

Geologic storage of CO₂ is expected to produce plumes of large areal extent, and some leakage may occur along fractures, fault zones, or improperly plugged pre-existing wellbores. A review of physical and chemical processes accompanying leakage suggests a potential for self-enhancement. The numerical simulations presented here confirm this expectation, but reveal self-limiting features as well. It seems unlikely that CO₂ leakage could trigger a high-energy run-away discharge, a so-called “pneumatic eruption,” but present understanding is insufficient to rule out this possibility. The most promising avenue for increasing understanding of CO₂ leakage behavior is the study of natural analogues.