西宁市区不同天气形势下的PM_(10)输送路径及潜在源区

针对2016年西宁市区稳定和沙尘两种不同天气形势,基于后向轨迹气团的聚类分析法、潜在源贡献因子法(PSCF)和浓度权重轨迹分析法(CWT),结合市环境监测站PM_(10)浓度质量资料,分析了西宁市区不同天气形势下不同来源区域PM_(10)质量浓度的贡献影响及其潜在源区。结果表明:西宁市区稳定天气PM_(10)均来自青海省境内,PM_(10)输送路径以西方和东方转向路径最多,占总轨迹数的34.78%和30.43%;西方路径主要从青海省格尔木市向东输送,东方转向路径则从西宁市西部地区向东转而向西输送,两者经过的地区均没有明显的沙源;PM_(10)的潜在贡献源区主要在西宁市区及其北部与大通县和互助县交界地区。沙尘天气PM_(10)输送路径除了以来自青海省海西州的西方路径为最多外,甘肃省河西走廊的东方转向路径也较多,占比分别达到42.11%和36.84%;西方路径PM_(10)主要从沙漠地带南疆—青海省海西州西部向东输送,东方转向路径PM_(10)则经河西走廊沙源地进入西宁市区;PM_(10)污染主要是PM_(10)由沙源地输送进入西宁市区聚集所造成。地形对PM_(10)的输送路径有较大的影响。     

西风槽影响下豫西北两类强对流天气流型和物理量特征分析

西风槽是诱发豫西北雷雨大风和暴雨等强对流天气的一种重要的天气系统。利用常规高空、地面观测和探空资料,对2001-2015年6-9月受西风槽影响在豫西北发生的区域性强对流天气过程的分析发现,由于近地面暖湿空气势力和侵入冷空气的强弱不同,致使天气系统配置差异显著。根据不同天气系统配置,将由西风槽入侵引起的强对流天气过程分为斜压锋生类和低层暖平流强迫抬升类两种。斜压锋生类的显著特征是配合高空槽的移近,影响系统在700 h Pa上有明显的冷槽,在近地面层有明显的锋生和锋面移近,锋面逼近使抬升运动增强是强对流天气启动的重要因素;低层暖平流强迫类的影响系统在700 h Pa上有位势高度槽而无冷槽,槽的南段紧贴或者落后于500 h Pa槽线,呈前倾结构,强的热力不稳定和深层垂直风切变所形成的动力不稳定是引发这类强对流天气的主要因素,地面辐合线、干线触发了强对流天气。二者在物理量场分布上也有着显著的异同:相同之处在于两类强对流天气均有较强的位势不稳定且积累了大量的不稳定能量,两类强对流过程的0℃层均接近或超过5km。不同之处主要有以下几点:1)斜压锋生类中低层湿度更大,湿层更厚。2)低层暖平流强迫类850-500 h Pa的温差均值为27. 7℃,大于斜压锋生类的温差。3)斜压锋生类K指数均值达39. 6℃,低层暖平流强迫类K指数均值为28. 7℃,二者差值高达10. 9℃,而其抬升凝结高度却明显偏低。4)斜压锋生类中低层的垂直风切变较大,而低层暖平流强迫类的对流层高层与近地面间的垂直风切变较大。     

AN OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS OF A TORRENTIAL RAINSTORM IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SOUTH CHINA COASTAL AREAS

On May 20 th 2007, a brief but severe downpour rainstorm occurred in the coastal areas of Maoming and Yangjiang with rainfall of 115 mm per hour. Data from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with 1°×1° resolution, Doppler weather radar, conventional surface observations, high-altitude radiosonde and wind profiler radar were used to analyze characteristics and contributions of synoptic scale and mesoscale systems during this torrential rainstorm. The results showed that:(1) the storm was caused by a quasi-linear mesoscale convective system(MCS) and the slow-movement of this system was the primary trigger of the torrential downpour;(2) water vapor was abundant, nearly saturated and in steady state throughout the atmosphere before the storm; intrusion of the weak dry and cold air in the middle level and a striking "dry above and wet below " structure had increased the atmospheric instability;(3) low-level southwesterly airflow from a low pressure(trough) at the Beibu Gulf provided abundant water vapor at the onset of the rainstorm; a deep dry layer was formed by dry and cold air behind the high-level trough, which facilitated latent heat release;upper-level divergence and low-level convergence circulations also provided vertical uplift for warm and moist air at the lower level;(4) Topography only played a minor role as the MCS developed and strengthened over relatively flat coastal terrain. Low level density flow induced by convection triggered new convective cell generation at the leading edge of the convective system, thereby playing a key role in the change of temperature gradient at lower layers, and resulting in strengthening atmospheric instability.     

基于自组织映射神经网络的吉林省春夏期降水统计模拟研究

利用1997—2015年吉林省春夏期(4—7月)逐日气象站地面观测资料,以气温、气压、相对湿度、水汽压、风速为协变量,建立各站点逐日降水量的基于自组织映射神经网络(Self-Organizing Maps,SOM)的统计预测模型;分析吉林省春夏期的主要天气模态,研究逐日降水和天气模态之间的关系,并基于此关系提出逐日降水量的蒙特卡罗模拟方法。结果表明:SOM对天气模态的分型质量较好,邻近天气模态的累积概率分布较相似,距离较远的天气模态累计概率分布差异较大。各天气模态下无降水的概率与日降水量区间宽度的相关系数为-0. 94,显著性水平小于0. 01。基于降水量累积概率分布,20种天气模态被划分成4类,并与降水易发程度和逐日降水量完全对应。在此基础上,对吉林省24个站点逐日降水量进行蒙特卡罗模拟,并进行预测性能分析。平均绝对误差(Mean Absolute Error,MAE)和均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error,RM SE)的中位数分别为3. 12 mm和6. 13 mm,SBrier和Ssig分别为0. 06和0. 51,站点的逐日降水量预测性能整体较好。MAE和RMSE分布呈现东南大西北小,去除降水自然变异差异的影响,所有站点的误差都较小; SBrier和Ssig没有明显的空间分布特征。     

敦煌湖泊湿地生态系统地表辐射平衡特征

利用2013年干旱环境背景下敦煌湖泊湿地生态系统的辐射数据,分析了该地区的辐射变化特征。结果表明：不同的天气背景,各辐射分量的日变化过程差异较大,晴天变化曲线呈平滑的单峰型,多云天气平滑度不如晴天,阴天、雨天和沙尘天气呈现了不规则的多峰型变化;各季辐射通量的日变化都呈单峰型,但收入量差异较大,极值出现的时间也不相同。向下短波辐射、向上和向下长波辐射、净辐射月总量的变化表现出明显的季节性,夏季 > 春季 > 秋季 > 冬季,向上短波辐射的月总量的季节变化不太明显。各辐射分量日平均值具有明显的季节性,夏、春季较大,秋、冬季较小,最大值出现在6月或7月,最小值出现在12月或1月。生长季的地表反照率要低于非生长季,各季日平均反照率都是早晚高,中午低,呈"U"型。     

2011年5月11日内蒙古地区强沙尘暴天气过程分析

基于1°×1°NCEP资料、常规气象观测资料及地面加密观测资料,对2011年5月11日发生在锡林郭勒盟地区的强沙尘暴过程进行天气学分析和诊断,得出如下结论:(1)此次强沙尘暴过程特点是落区集中、强度大、强沙尘暴持续时间长、沙尘暴区与大风区(6级以上)非常一致。冷涡及强锋区、蒙古气旋和冷锋是触发这次强沙尘暴天气过程的重要天气系统,此次强沙尘暴天气过程则属于蒙古气旋和冷锋共同作用引起的类型;(2)高空急流左中和左后方的辐合区,及左前侧的高空辐散区均出现了沙尘暴,下沉只在动量下传中起到了重要作用。垂直螺旋度在东移的过程中正值中心与强沙尘暴区域对应较好,且具有典型的上负下正的垂直结构,构成了低空强辐合、高空强辐散的深厚上升运动区,这样螺旋度垂直分布是十分有利于沙尘暴发展的一种形式;(3)在沙尘暴发生前,具有不稳定特征。沙尘天气开始时,等位温线几乎垂直于横坐标,表明此时大气层结非常接近绝热状态(中性层结),由于中性层结能够减小抬升所需的能量,因而有利于干对流的产生。     

Characteristics of sea breeze front development with various synoptic conditions and its impact on lower troposphere ozone formation

To examine the correlation between the sizes of sea breeze fronts and pollutants under the influence of synoptic fields, a numerical simulation was conducted in the southeast coastal area of the Korean Peninsula, where relatively high concentrations of pollutants occur because of the presence of various kinds of industrial developments. Sea breeze and sea breeze front days during the period 2005-09 were identified using wind profiler data and, according to the results, the number of days were 72 and 53, respectively. When synoptic forcing was weak, sea breeze fronts moved fast both in horizontal fields and in terms of wind velocity, while in the case of strong synoptic forcing, sea breeze fronts remained at the coast or moved slowly due to strong opposing flows. In this case, the sea breeze front development function and horizontal potential temperature difference were larger than with weak synoptic forcing. The ozone concentration that moves together with sea breeze fronts was also formed along the frontal surfaces. Ozone advection and diffusion in the case of strong synoptic forcing was suppressed at the frontal surface and the concentration gradient was large. The vertical distribution of ozone was very low due to the Thermal Internal Boundary Layer (TIBL) being low.     

Roles of Synoptic to Quasi-Monthly Disturbances in Generating Two Pre-Summer Heavy Rainfall Episodes over South China

In this study,power spectral analysis and bandpass filtering of daily meteorological fields are performed to explore the roles of synoptic to quasi-monthly disturbances in influencing the generation of pre-summer heavy rainfall over South China.Two heavy rainfall episodes are selected during the months of April-June 2008-15,which represent the collaboration between the synoptic and quasi-biweekly disturbances and the synoptic and quasi-monthly disturbances,respectively.Results show that the first heavy rainfall episode takes place in a southwesterly anomalous flow associated with an anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea(SCS)at the quasi-biweekly scale with 15.1%variance contributions,and at the synoptic scale in a convergence zone between southwesterly and northeasterly anomalous flows associated with a southeastward-moving anticyclonic anomaly on the leeside of the Yungui Plateau and an eastwardpropagating anticyclonic anomaly from higher latitudes with 35.2%variance contribution.In contrast,the second heavy rainfall episode takes place in southwest-to-westerly anomalies converging with northwest-to-westerly anomalies at the quasi-monthly scale with 23.2%variance contributions to the total rainfall variance,which are associated with an anticyclonic anomaly over the SCS and an eastward-propagating cyclonic anomaly over North China,respectively.At the synoptic scale,it occurs in south-to-southwesterly anomalies converging with a cyclonic anomaly on the downstream of the Yungui Plateau with 49.3%variance contributions.In both cases,the lower-tropospheric mean south-to-southwesterly flows provide ample moisture supply and potentially unstable conditions;it is the above synoptic,quasi-biweekly or quasimonthly disturbances that determine the general period and distribution of persistent heavy rainfall over South China.     

Numerical simulation and synoptic analysis of dust emission and transport in East Asia

This study is concerned with the mechanisms of dust storm development in East Asia and the characteristics of the responsible synoptic systems. Two severe East Asian dust storms which occurred in spring 2002 are analyzed using synoptic and remote sensing data. The relationships between the formation and the movement of the dust storms and the evolution of the synoptic systems are examined. It is shown that a dust storm may develop when a synoptic system moves to the desert area of Northeast Asia with a surface wind speed exceeding 6 m s^− 1. Numerical simulations of the two dust storms are carried out using a dust storm forecasting model. The performance of the model is verified with observations. The dust sources are found to be consistent with the desert regions in Northeast Asia, but cover a somewhat larger area than the observations suggest. Finally, we present a conceptual model of dust storm generation and movement in East Asia on the basis of numerical modeling and synoptic analysis.     

近海北上热带气旋特征及对华东沿海地区影响分析

使用常规观测、FY2C卫星云图、CIMSS气象卫星云图分析、2000—2012年台风路径、NCEP再分析等资料,统计了2000年以来近海北上的热带气旋(下面统称为NTC)对华东沿海地区的风雨影响,分析了NTC的路径、强度、结构等特征,以及与华东沿海地区的风雨的关系。结果表明NTC对华东沿海地区是否有较严重风雨影响,取决于其北上路径与沿海地区距离的远近、NTC的强度和范围大小。当NTC中心距离陆地300 km,在124.5°E以西北上对华东沿海地区有较严重风雨影响,如果NTC强度在台风等级以上时会对上海产生较严重风雨影响。在125°E以东北上的NTC,强度在台风等级以下时对华东沿海地区影响较小。NTC在东海近海北上时,强台风、超强台风的强度是逐渐减弱的;较弱的台风或强热带风暴及热带风暴强度将维持或略有加强。NTC在东海近海北上时,当离沿海地区距离300 km时,结构易变得非对称。强度强和范围大的NTC结构也易变得非对称。NTC结构变得非对称后其强度将进一步减弱。随着NTC北上海温逐渐降低,在NTC西部靠近陆地其水汽条件比东部差,NTC结构会变得不对称,NTC北上到较高纬度风的垂直切变一般会变大,NTC脱离赤道辐合带后其水汽输送条件变差等等都会使较强的NTC北上后减弱。另外,NTC与所处的高低空环境相互作用也会影响其强度变化。