EXTRA-SEASONAL PREDICTIONS OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN CHINA AND ENSO IN 2001 BY CLIMATE MODELS

China is a monsoon country.The most rainfalls in China concentrate on the summer seasons.More frequent floods or droughts occur in some parts of China.Therefore,the prediction ofsummer rainfall in China is a significant issue.As we know,the obvious impacts of the sea surfacetemperature anomalies(SSTA)on the summer rainfall over China have been noticed.Thepredictions of the SSTA have been involved in the research.The key project on short-term climate modeling prediction system has been finished in 2000.The system included an atmospheric general circulation model named AGCM95,a coupledatmospheric-oceanic general circulation model named AOGCM95,a regional climate model overChina named RegCM95,a high-resolution Indian-Pacific OGCM named IPOGCM95,and asimplified atmosphere-ocean dynamic model system named SAOMS95.They became theoperational prediction models of National Climate Center(NCC).Extra-seasonal predictions in 2001 have been conducted by several climate models,which werethe AGCM95,AOGCM95,RegCM95,IPOGCM95,AIPOGCM95,OSU/NCC,SAOMS95,IAPAPOGCM and CAMS/ZS.All of those models predicted the summer precipitation over China and/or the annual SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the Modeling Prediction Workshop held inMarch 2001.The assessments have shown that the most models predicted the distributions of main rain beltover Huanan and parts of Jiangnan and droughts over Huabei-Hetao and Huaihe River Valleyreasonably.The most models predicted successfully that a weaker cold phase of the SSTA over thecentral and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean would continue in 2001.The evaluations of extra-seasonal predictions have also indicated that the models had a certaincapability of predicting the SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the summer rainfall overChina.The assessment also showed that multi-model ensemble(super ensembles)predictionsprovided the better forecasts for both SSTA and summer rainfall in 2001,compared with the singlemodel.It is a preliminary assessment for the extra-seasonal predictions by the climate models.Thefurther investigations will be carried out.The model system should be developed and improved.     

内核超速旋转引起的重力场变化(英文)

Due to the super rotation of the Earth＇s inner core, the tilted figure axis of the inner core would progress with respect to the mantle and thus cause the variation of the Earth＇s external gravity field. This paper improves the present model of the gravity field variation caused by the inner core super rotation. Under the assumption that the inner core is a stratifying ellipsoid whose density function is fitted out from PREM and the super rotation rate is 0.27-0.53°/yr, calculations show that the global temporal variations on the Earth＇s surface have a maximum value of about 0.79-1.54×10^3 pGal and a global average intensity of about 0.45-0.89×10^ 3 μGal in the whole year of 2007, which is beyond the accuracy of the present gravimetry and even the super conducting gravimeter data. However, both the gravity variations at Beijing and Wuhan vary like sine variables with maximal variations around 0.33 pGal and 0.29 pGal, respectively, in one cycle. Thus, continuous gravity measurements for one or two decades might be able to detect the differential motion of the inner core.     

INDEPTH 与 INDEPTH-MT 项目简介

摘　 要　 介绍了 “国际喜马拉雅和西藏高原深剖面及综合研究” （简称 INDEPTH） 项目概况、 科学目标和已取得的主要科学成果。着重阐述了作为该项目组成部分的由中国地质大学 （北 京）、美国华盛顿大学 （西雅图）、加拿大地质调查局合作进行的 “国际喜马拉雅和西藏高原 深剖面探测的大地电磁研究” （简称 INDEPTH-MT） 的任务、科学目标和主要成果以及采用 的仪器设备、野外数据采集的方法和技术以及数据处理与反演方法所具有的特色和先进性。     

建筑结构中抗震分析模型的优化研究

大多数建筑结构由梁、柱、支撑、剪力墙、地基和楼板等主要结构组成。一般而言,楼板对建筑结构的抗震性能可以忽略不计,所以进行建筑结构分析的模型是无楼板的。因此,楼板被刚性隔板代替,以提高分析效率。本文提出的建筑结构抗震分析解析模型考虑了楼板抗弯刚度,该模型采用超级单元、刚性隔板和子结构技术来减少自由度。通过实例分析,验证了该模型在多层建筑结构抗震分析中的有效性和准确性。且此模型能够显著减少计算量,提高分析效率,振动周期和响应时间等分析结果的精度与精化模型的结果非常接近,说明该模型的提出是合理的。     

基于ADCIRC+SWAN耦合模型的风暴潮数值模拟研究——以深圳西部海域为例

本文采用ADCIRC和SWAN模式建立了基于非结构网格的深圳海域高分辨率天文潮-风暴潮-海浪耦合数值模型。基于历史统计资料,以1604号台风"妮妲"作为基础路径、以1319号超强台风"天兔"作为设计强度设计了超强台风,计算了超强台风影响下深圳西部海域的最高潮位,结果显示宝安机场、赤湾和深圳湾顶的最高潮位为5.71 m、4.67 m和5.06 m,分别超过当地红色警戒潮位2.69 m、1.65 m和2.98 m。为验证波浪增水作用设计了敏感性实验,结果显示波浪对风暴潮增水的贡献量值约0.1 m。     

Advanced processing techniques for remotely sensed imagery

综述了遥感影像信息处理技术的研究进展,主要包括高分辨率影像信息提取技术、影像超分辨率、高光谱影像处理和目标探测,以及遥感影像处理与分类的人工智能方法.对于高分辨率影像处理,从纹理、形状、结构和对象的角度探讨了空间信息提取对于高分辨率影像解译的意义和作用,分析了小波纹理、空间共生纹理、形状特征提取和面向对象分类技术的进展和存在的问题;对于超分辨率技术,文章主要介绍了超分辨率技术的最新进展,及其在遥感影像(sPOT5和MODIS)中的应用;在高光谱数据处理方面,从纯净像元和混合像元两方面介绍了最新的进展.对于纯净像元方法.主要分析了植被指数和统计方法,混合像元方面,则主要分析了像元分解、端元提取的最新技术方法;在智能化信息处理方面,先回顾了神经网络和遗传算法在遥感图像处理中的应用,然后介绍了人工免疫系统对多、高光谱遥感影像分类研究的最新进展.     

中太平洋海山富钴结壳中水羟锰矿的超结构

采自中太平洋海山富钴结壳主要由水羟锰矿组成,在XRD衍射图谱上,该矿物缺少(001)和(002)底面衍射,其原因是水羟锰矿包含了两种对称型的八面体层,即三斜对称和六方对称的八面体层,它们沿c轴方向无序排列。部分样品中的水羟锰矿在低角度区具有d>2.0nm的超结构衍射峰,它在实质上反映了矿物结构层的长程有序性,即两种层片的排列具有某种周期性或规律性。部分样品原先没有,但在加热后出现超结构衍射峰,可能是因为样品在空气中加热,使三斜层片中的Mn(III)被氧化成Mn(IV),从而转变为六方层片,继而改变了水羟锰矿的有序性。富钴结壳中水羟锰矿的超结构,在一定程度上反映了矿物形成环境的变化。     

长江下游大型沉井基础局部冲刷计算公式研究

大型沉井基础在长江下游大跨径跨江大桥工程中应用越来越多,基础局部冲刷深度预测是设计时需要重点考虑的问题之一。国内外对桥梁基础局部冲刷做了大量的研究并建立了局部冲刷计算公式,由于长江下游大型沉井基础规模越来越大,原有局部冲刷深度的预测公式存在一定的局限性。在常泰大桥超大沉井基础局部冲刷试验成果的基础上,结合长江下游南京以下跨江大桥沉井基础局部冲刷试验成果,通过量纲分析及多元回归法建立了大型沉井基础局部冲刷计算公式,并应用试验资料及实测资料进行了较好的验证。该公式计算结构简单,可供长江下游大型沉井基础局部冲刷深度估算参考和应用。     

汕头市过海顶管自动测量系统的研究与实现

针对汕头市过海超长顶管工程的实际需求,研发出了一套拥有自主知识产权、适用于超长距离顶管施工的自动测量系统。3台全站仪组成一个系统,每测量一次,只需3min。该系统能够达到cm级精度,具有可靠性强、测量精度高的特点,可以在恶劣的施工环境中正常运行。